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Mockingjay Raphael

Weekend topic: BOM || Happy Death Day: $26.5M || Blade Runner: $15.1M || The Foreigner: $12.8M || IT: $6M || Annabelle: Creation at $300m WW

By Mockingjay Raphael, in Numbers and Data

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MCKillswitch123 Summer Tentpole

MCKillswitch123

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't know, Paramount is putting a loooooooooooot of effort into campaigning it. Aronofsky is hosting a lot of industry screenings, and then you have stuff like Scorsese's defense (and Harvey's :ph34r: ) of mother! and how it's a masterpiece. It's definitely their #1 film this season because Surburbicon is a flop and Downsizing has mixed reviews with the positive ones not being that passionate. I'M NOT WRITING IT OFF YET GODDAMMIT!

It is Paramount's #1 bet, indeed, and I can bet all my fucking casino points that it doesn't get a BP nomination. C'mon man, the Academy is very ratings baitsy when it comes to their choices. And mother!..... really isn't the type of movie that people will cling onto if it gets that kind of recognition, to say the least. I can already picture some random guy starting a petition to take it out of the BP nominees :lol:

 

Way I see it, not a chance in the world that such a grim, divisive movie would actually garner that many votes from the Academy members. Maybe there's a shot at Best Supporting Actress for Michelle Pfeiffer. JLaw has a minimal shot too. That's it. Also, Scorsese's defense of mother! is irrelevant, considering that his own passion project (Silence) flopped and was negged a nomination too #AssholeMomentFromYoursTruly :ph34r:

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

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I am disappointed in The Foreigner's debut.  Yeah, it was a good # and all, and above expectations, but I still felt something missing if its box office did not break out to the levels I wanted it to.  It was a movie I felt excited for.  I think 20 years ago, this movie would have opened up in 1997 with the same exact number (which would be like 20+ with inflation).  I guess I wanted more then the limited fanbase showing up.  This weekend we get an *insert Blumhouse horror* = instant #1 and it just seems so easy for studios to look at the schedule and pick their #1 slot. 

 

I think Blade Runner 2049 will hit 100M now.  I predicted nearly a 60% drop, but since it held on and comfortably moved past 60M at the 10-day mark with a weekend above 15, I think those numbers are good enough to make 100.000 a fair goal.

 

I wonder how My Little Pony will hold for week #3.

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MCKillswitch123 Summer Tentpole

MCKillswitch123

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To be very honest to 2049, a 53% drop, considering the inflation of last weekend due to the pre-holiday Sunday, as well as the 2:40hr+ duration that supposedly made it so unappealing to a lot of people, is actually not bad. And, if we wanna get optimistic, I think that, if it keeps up with decent legs (and if this drop says something, it actually can do that), it can finish with around 90+, which, against a somewhat frontloaded 32.8x OW, isn't something to sneeze at.

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Cmasterclay Global Phenomenon

Cmasterclay

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For a supposed" box office bomb" I think there's a very good chance Blade Runner is the third highest grossing film in real contention this year behind Dunkirk and Get Out.

 

I would put I, Tonya, Detroit, and even Wonder Woman/Planet of the Apes over mother! at this point, sorry Han.

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Zakiyyah6 Blockbuster

Zakiyyah6

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

To be very honest to 2049, a 53% drop, considering the inflation of last weekend due to the pre-holiday Sunday, as well as the 2:40hr+ duration that supposedly made it so unappealing to a lot of people, is actually not bad. And, if we wanna get optimistic, I think that, if it keeps up with decent legs (and if this drop says something, it actually can do that), it can finish with around 90+, which, against a somewhat frontloaded 32.8x OW, isn't something to sneeze at.

90+mil is a terrible number for a film that cost 150-200mil. The budget was just too damn high. 

Edited by Zakiyyah6
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

For a supposed" box office bomb" I think there's a very good chance Blade Runner is the third highest grossing film in real contention this year behind Dunkirk and Get Out.

 

I would put I, Tonya, Detroit, and even Wonder Woman/Planet of the Apes over mother! at this point, sorry Han.

Detroit is going nowhere with the flop distributor known as Annapurna behind it :whosad: 

 

Also, lolno @ the bolded

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grey ghost Global Phenomenon

grey ghost

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

This is what I'd say regarding the field:

 

1. Three Billboards

2. The Shape of Water

3. Dunkirk

4. Call Me by Your Name

5. The Post

----------------------------

6. Darkest Hour

----------------------------

7. The Big Sick

8. Blade Runner 2049

9. Get Out

----------------------------

10. Molly's Game

11-13. A24's stuff (Florida/Lady Bird/Disaster Artist)

----------------------------

14. mother!

15. Phantom Thread

 

I think the first five are all locks and any of them could win. Darkest Hour is very likely to get in, but the falling Metascore is a tad worrying. 7-9 all have strong factors in their favor (Amazon's #1/huge tech player/genre gamechanger) with slight factors against them (does it stand out enough/box office bomb/potential to only have one other nomination). If there's a 10th spot, I think Molly's Game has the best chance. A screenplay nomination is assured, and Chastain has a decent chance of being nominated. Elba and a tech or two isn't out of the question either. STX is the big question mark though. I don't think A24 will be able to get anything in because they don't have a clear #1; if they become more focused, maybe I'll add one to the 10th spot. Then I have mother! and Phantom thread with slight chances. mother! obviously has some very passionate fans (ahem), but the number of fans needs to be large enough for a nomination. Phantom Thread will suffer from late screeners and the possibility of being too niche.

 

Do you think this year is more competitive than usual or nah?

 

Others are free to chime in as well.

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JohnnyGossamer Global Phenomenon

JohnnyGossamer

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

For a supposed" box office bomb" I think there's a very good chance Blade Runner is the third highest grossing film in real contention this year behind Dunkirk and Get Out.

 

I would put I, Tonya, Detroit, and even Wonder Woman/Planet of the Apes over mother! at this point, sorry Han.

True. But, not really sure what that means aside from a movie cost that a lot more than just about everything else in contention. And, will lose more money than anything in contention.

Edited by JohnnyGossamer
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
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1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

Do you think this year is more competitive than usual or nah?

 

Others are free to chime in as well.

Definitely. We don't have a clear frontrunner for Picture, especially when 5 movies are in the running, and the last 4 spots are really unpredictable. It's a nice change of pace when we had an un-defeatable frontrunner last year that lost :lol: 

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