WEEKEND Box Office: BOO-21.6M; Geostorm-13.3M; OTB-6M; Snowman-3.4M

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

Snowman is pacing to gross $1.6 million from 1,812 theaters on Friday for a $4 million-$5 million debut.

 

Playing in 2,577 theaters, the critically acclaimed Only the Brave is projected to gross $2 million on Friday and $6 million for the weekend, putting it ahead of Snowman.

Snowman just show how low the floor is without a strong IP (even with a book / nice appeal genre for Snowman here), the talk about "cannot see this open below 10m" for any movie without an IP, or a clear list of precedent never going under 10m will more and more stop.

 

Only the Brave has a well timed/relevant heroes with the actuality, 90% on RT, emotional movie, nice theater count, not able to get close to 10m would be sad.

[Barnack]

35 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think it fell victim to bad timing in light of the recent California wildfires.

If it would be overperforming we would analyse it the other way around, that it is helping the movie to feel particularly relevant right now. (like if Battle of the sexes would have done great the heavy political talk mixed with news when it opened would have created a narrative that it helped the movie, when it under perform the other way around).

 

It is a movie without an high concept hook for the audience in the trailer, title, synopsis, without a clear hero journey story line, they are very hard to sell.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Barnack

[Zakiyyah6]

I think The Snowman could have a good for a generic thriller opening weekend of 10-12mil even with bad reviews if the trailers were actually good and not ridiculously silly. 

[HesAPooka]

5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

If it follows mother!

 

1.2M

1.1M

700k

3M Weekend

 

Shit, I should have gone even lower than 4M, especially when WOM is super toxic.

 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Snowman just show how low the floor is without a strong IP (even with a book / nice appeal genre for Snowman here), the talk about "cannot see this open below 10m" for any movie without an IP, or a clear list of precedent never going under 10m will more and more stop.

 

Only the Brave has a well timed/relevant heroes with the actuality, 90% on RT, emotional movie, nice theater count, not able to get close to 10m would be sad.

Nah, Snowman shows a bad movie with bad timing and circumstances opens badly...nothing more...

 

Only the Brave just wasn't ever marketed - I've yet to see an ad on CBS, Food Network, Facebook, football, etc...I mean, I go to the places 25+ folks would get marketed to and I've seen nothing.  If I wasn't here, I wouldn't know it was coming out (and I didn't know Snowman was for the same reason, until YESTERDAY, when I saw my 1st ad during the football game...and from that ad, I thought it was a horror movie, so it's nicely mismarketed to boot:)...if you don't attempt to reach your audience, you won't reach your audience no matter what rotten tomatoes says...

[dudalb]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Nah, Snowman shows a bad movie with bad timing and circumstances opens badly...nothing more...

 

Only the Brave just wasn't ever marketed - I've yet to see an ad on CBS, Food Network, Facebook, football, etc...I mean, I go to the places 25+ folks would get marketed to and I've seen nothing.  If I wasn't here, I wouldn't know it was coming out (and I didn't know Snowman was for the same reason, until YESTERDAY, when I saw my 1st ad during the football game...and from that ad, I thought it was a horror movie, so it's nicely mismarketed to boot:)...if you don't attempt to reach your audience, you won't reach your audience no matter what rotten tomatoes says...

And I think the massive coverage of the Napa fires in  California did not help matters with Only The Brave. Too bad, becauae it seems to be a really good movie...something of a surprise, since usually when Hollywood makes this kind of movie about a real recent event, it messes up.

I also think that people remember the real event, and know the film will have a real downer of a ending is not a plus.

Edited October 20, 2017 by dudalb

[baumer]

It's really too bad that all of the films with the exception of Madea, are going to have shitty numbers.  Geostorm is a terrific fun escape and Only the Brave looks terrific.  Mr. Policeman was a best seller so it should have done better as well.  I think maybe there's just too many movies coming out this weekend and maybe that caused people to just skip everything.

 

I hope Geo does well WW.  Again, it's a very fun film.

[dxmatrixdt]

Out of the Furnace (2014) and The Postman (1997) both opened slightly above 5m in the Fall/Winter.

[Zakiyyah6]

Hollywood makes these true story disaster movies too soon.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Hollywood makes these true story disaster movies too soon.

Eh, it took Detroit 50 years and that's going to end up with slightly more than OTB. American audiences just don't like sad, true dramas unless it's a cultural event like Passion or an Oscar contender.

 

Edit: just realized I called a religious movie a true story when not everyone believes it. Whatever, the movie is about a dude getting tortured; it's a sad movie  

Edited October 20, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Nah, Snowman shows a bad movie with bad timing and circumstances opens badly...nothing more...

 

Only the Brave just wasn't ever marketed - I've yet to see an ad on CBS, Food Network, Facebook, football, etc...I mean, I go to the places 25+ folks would get marketed to and I've seen nothing.  If I wasn't here, I wouldn't know it was coming out (and I didn't know Snowman was for the same reason, until YESTERDAY, when I saw my 1st ad during the football game...and from that ad, I thought it was a horror movie, so it's nicely mismarketed to boot:)...if you don't attempt to reach your audience, you won't reach your audience no matter what rotten tomatoes says...

Lot of people has yet to know that the movie is bad (not sure about timing/circumstance you are referring here, competition limiting is theater count ?.

 

I am not talking about terrible legs/total here, but is opening. And when I am talking about how low the floor is getting for non-ip movie, that is part of it, in the prediction it need to take into account that the movie could end up to be a bad one, those were often opening fine in the past.

 

Only the brave was not much marketed that is true (only 1,707 tv airing for a wide released movie according to isppotv, and a movie that had a tv watching audience that could have used live sports spot), but the reviews/platform release could have built some words out there (I guess the movie is just not good enough for that)

[marveldcfox]

Bwahahahahaha at miles teller.

[Zakiyyah6]

As a rule I never spend money on Gerard Butler movies.

 

The media landscape is more fractured and tickets are more expensive than ever so more movies are going to flop. Less people are going to the theaters, you're not going to have everything making even a little money anymore.

[dxmatrixdt]

 

http://deadline.com/2017/10/tyler-perry-boo-2-a-madea-halloween-geostorm-bombs-blade-runner-2049-weekend-box-office-1202191950/

2ND UPDATE, MIDDAY: Lionsgate’s Tyler Perry‘s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween at this point in time looks to ring in $8M today at 2,388 theaters for a $22M-$23.5M start. The original built up word of mouth throughout the weekend and played beyond it’s core African American demographic. We’ll see if there’s a similar trend later tonight. Boo 2 is critic proof at 10% Rotten.

 

"Boo 2 is critic proof at 10% Rotten." - now there's a statement.

[HesAPooka]

12 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

Out of the Furnace (2014) and The Postman (1997) both opened slightly above 5m in the Fall/Winter.

For whatever reason every couple of years I watch that movie and fully love it.

[WrathOfHan]

Other numbers from Deadline:

 

HDD: 11M, -58%

BR: 7.2-7.4M, -53%

 

100M is dead for BR. I expected 11.5M for HDD, so that isn't too far off base. It can probably go up given how younger skewing it is.

Edited October 20, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Zakiyyah6]

Blade Runner was dead opening weekend.

[Barnack]

37 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Other numbers from Deadline:

 

HDD: 11M, -58%

BR: 7.2-7.4M, -53%

 

100M is dead for BR. I expected 11.5M for HDD, so that isn't too far off base. It can probably go up given how younger skewing it is.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Blade-Runner-2049/Elysium/Oblivion-(2013)

 

Third weekend

Elysium: 6.93m (-49%)

Oblivion: 5.6m (-68%)

 

Where they were at day 14

Oblivion: 70.17

BR: 66.85m

Elysium: 61.9m

 

Where they ended:

Elysium: 93.05m

Oblivion: 89.02m

 

Is it really officially death, if it does 7.4m it will be above Elysium by around 5.5m (if they do the same legs after that would put BR at 98.5m, does not need much better legs to reach 100m) and there is not much going competition wise. Elysium had some great 4 days weekend hold after that date to help is legs too, so yeah I guess you are right.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Barnack

[filmlover]

Predictions for next weekend:

 

Jigsaw: $8M

Suburbicon: $7M

Thank You for Your Service: $5M

 

Calm before the storm.

[dxmatrixdt]

15 minutes ago, HesAPooka said:

For whatever reason every couple of years I watch that movie and fully love it.

first time watcher.  1 hour in as of last night.  a lot better than I expected.  I thought this was supposed to be a slow paced 3 hour Historical about Kevin Costner riding across America in the 1800 or 1900s.  I thought it would be like the Gettysburg film, but with very little action.  Instead, it seems to be more on point with Mad Max's Fury Road or Waterworld.