Classic Conversation Thread

[lorddemaxus]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Not sure if this still falls under @Eric Says Trans Rights's admonishment, since it seems to be spinning off a bit, but to me that really does fit the definition of "take something that has a grain of truth and spin it into a web of lies".  The adage of half-truths/partial truths being the worst sort of lies.

Which is no different to what that woman was doing either tho. 

[Ozymandias]

Theres an insane amount of propaganda, disinformation, and psyops going on right now, but after 3 days of fighting, from my estimations, its looking like things are not going too well for the Russians, particularly in the north.  I think its a combination of these three:

 

1.) Russian ground forces aren't very capable of fighting a modern ground war due to things like tech, logistics, etc.

2.) A lot of Russian troops don't think Russia should be in Ukraine therefore morale/motivation is low.

3.)  Russia is holding back, people familiar with Chechnya and Syria will know what I'm talking about.

 

No matter what it is, the losses they're taking aren't sustainable at the moment and somethings gonna have to change for them real soon.  They're either gonna have to sue for peace or dramatically change strategy.

 

Both sides do appear to be allowing troops to surrender(so far) which is good because I followed the Syrian War really closely for about 5 years and sometimes I regret it because holy shit the things Assadists/Baathists/Shia militias and the U.S./Gulf backed Islamists/Sunni Sectarians did to each other in that meat grinder will make you hate your own species.

 

Or I could be completely wrong in deciphering all this shit on social media.

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Ozymandias

[cannastop]

 

[Porthos]

59 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Theres an insane amount of propaganda, disinformation, and psyops going on right now, but after 3 days of fighting, from my estimations, its looking like things are not going too well for the Russians, particularly in the north.  I think its a combination of these three:

 

1.) Russian ground forces aren't very capable of fighting a modern ground war due to things like tech, logistics, etc.

2.) A lot of Russian troops don't think Russia should be in Ukraine therefore morale/motivation is low.

3.)  Russia is holding back, people familiar with Chechnya and Syria will know what I'm talking about.

 

 

A bit harder to go "all out" on folks you (allegedly) consider your brothers than folks you don't.  At the very least you might worry about how it plays at home more than you might in other cases.  Even now Russian TV is talking about how this is a campaign of liberation (even though it isn't) and if one wants to stick to that line it's harder to go Full Shock And Awe (though not impossible).

 

Still, I do agree that this is notable that Russia hasn't gone "all out" yet and whether they will or not. Tonight seemed a bit more of an accelerated in their attacks, so a less than hopeful sign in that regards.

 

Overall though this is still just entering Day 4.  While the initial fighting period/topple governments of modern wars may be short nowadays (as opposed to the months/years long commitments to actually finishing the war), Day 4 is still just Day 4.  This isn't over by any stretch of the imagination and the level of commitment that Putin/Russian Leadership is gonna throw into the mix still hasn't been decided one way or the other. 

[4815162342]

@Porthos

 

Meanwhile in baseball land...

 

https://theathletic.com/3152011/2022/02/26/drellich-opening-day-never-had-a-chance/?redirected=1

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, Ozymandias said:

3.)  Russia is holding back, people familiar with Chechnya and Syria will know what I'm talking about.

Yeah, Russia went in with the kid gloves here and it’s not getting the job done. Question is cut your losses or double down — could go either way I think.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, 4815162342 said:

@Porthos

 

Meanwhile in baseball land...

 

https://theathletic.com/3152011/2022/02/26/drellich-opening-day-never-had-a-chance/?redirected=1

 

 

 

Don't even have to read the link, as I'm sure I know what it's going to say.

 

The most got drat depressing thing was when I saw this, earlier:

 

 

 

There had been incremental moves all throughout these negotiations, and there was a sense that each side was waiting for the other to make the first "major move".

 

Well, in the opinion of the MLBPA the players did indeed make a first major move off of its asks, and the owners just brushed it off as "well that's not a give since we were never negotiating over that".  The players, predictably, were furious over that stance and allegedly were close to walking out of the negotiations, according to WaPo.

 

 

Not looking good in the slightest.  Do wonder now that MLBPA has made a major concession in its asks whether or not the owners will make a similar move. But I ain't holding my breath.

 

(gonna read the article now to see what Evan has to say about all of this mess)

[Porthos]

Actually read the article and....  Man some folks I follow could indeed have told him that back in December.  One person I read on Twitter, Roger Munter, been doomcasting a May or June (or even) July start for months now.

 

And, really, I can't say I'm surprised.  I don't know if the die was cast after the ruinous negotiations over the 2020 restart, but that's when I got the sense than this next labor fight was gonna be UG-LY.  Mostly because of the utter lack of trust in the negotiations.

 

That's the one thing I think is missing from Evan's analysis.  Yes, the players want to get more/get back labor gains and the owners want to keep them/not give up money.

 

I'm tempted to say "Thanks Captain Obvious", but I won't.

 

But I really do think we ignore just how much the fight over the length of the 2020 season utterly poisoned these negotiations to our peril.  THAT is when player sentiment hardened against Rob Manfred, I think.  Everything else is just a series of dominoes falling since then.

 

Hope this is over soon, but I doubt it.  Not once actual games start getting cancelled.

 

(@4815162342)

[Porthos]

45 minutes ago, Derby Legion said:

Yeah, Russia went in with the kid gloves here and it’s not getting the job done. Question is cut your losses or double down — could go either way I think.

 

Walk me through the scenario where Putin/Russian Government backs down and "cuts their losses".

 

The standard Modus Operandi in that case is "Declare Victory And Go Home".  But what's the face saving fig leaf for Putin here?  To mix in a couple of bad poker analogies, I think from his warped perspective he'll think he's put too many chips in the pot not to see it through at least a few more hands.

 

Maaaaaaaaaaaaybe harder than expected sanctions might get him to back off a bit (thinking Central Bank sanctions rather than SWIFT, as I understand the Central Bank one was a bit unexpected and something of escalation in economic warfare).

 

But even then I just think he'll see that as a reason to press the attack even harder rather than pull back, at least for someone with Putin's current mindset. Don't think enough territory in DNR/LNR has been secured to be a "cut your losses" type deal and I suspect the Ukrainian government (rightly) would not look favorably at more of a carve up of their country as way to stop the invasion anyway. 

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Porthos

[ZeeSoh]

37 minutes ago, Derby Legion said:

Yeah, Russia went in with the kid gloves here and it’s not getting the job done. Question is cut your losses or double down — could go either way I think.

 

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Walk me through the scenario where Putin/Russian Government backs down and "cuts their losses".

 

The standard Modus Operandi in that case is "Declare Victory And Go Home".  But what's the face saving fig leaf for Putin here?  To mix in a couple of bad poker analogies, I think from his warped perspective he'll think he's put too many chips in the pot not to see it through at least a few more hands.

 

Maaaaaaaaaaaaybe harder than expected sanctions might get him to back off a bit (thinking Central Bank sanctions rather than SMART, as I understand the Central Bank one was a bit unexpected and something of escalation in economic warfare).

 

But even then I just think he'll see that as a reason to press the attack even harder rather than pull back, at least for someone with Putin's current mindset. Don't think enough territory in DNR/LNR has been secured to be a "cut your losses" type deal and I suspect the Ukrainian government (rightly) would not look favorably at more of a carve up of their country as way to stop the invasion anyway. 

 

Info leaked a few hours ago that higher ups have issued order to take Kiev or Kharkiv or both by Monday. This order was given despite objections by Russian air force command about potentially huge loss of life. This is reflected in the most intense bombardment seen in Kharkiv and Kiev last night as well as moving of lots of heavy equipment to the front lines starting I think yesterday. 
 

Putin is not going to back down. Doing so now will make Russia seem like it lost and that is something Putin, whose entire schtick is portraying himself as a strongman, will not tolerate. The first few days have not gone as Russia intended due to their ineptitude and poor planning but I am sure they have learned from it and are adapting. Ukraine cannot sustain against Russia indefinitely (Russia cannot sustain many more days of the war either but Russia simply has far more resources plus a madman at the helm). Russia will want at the very least to take over Kiev and install a puppet government propped up by Russian riot police and NG as well as to completely over take Donbas region. 
 

If Putin has gone completely mental though then he would try and take the whole country and then hold it. That would be catastrophic and very costly for Russia. 

[Cooper Legion]

Part of why I don't want to make much of a fi prediction is that I wouldn't have predicted the (relatively) gentle start in the first place.

[xieh tie]

 

[grim22]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Walk me through the scenario where Putin/Russian Government backs down and "cuts their losses".

 

The standard Modus Operandi in that case is "Declare Victory And Go Home".  But what's the face saving fig leaf for Putin here?  To mix in a couple of bad poker analogies, I think from his warped perspective he'll think he's put too many chips in the pot not to see it through at least a few more hands.

 

Maaaaaaaaaaaaybe harder than expected sanctions might get him to back off a bit (thinking Central Bank sanctions rather than SWIFT, as I understand the Central Bank one was a bit unexpected and something of escalation in economic warfare).

 

But even then I just think he'll see that as a reason to press the attack even harder rather than pull back, at least for someone with Putin's current mindset. Don't think enough territory in DNR/LNR has been secured to be a "cut your losses" type deal and I suspect the Ukrainian government (rightly) would not look favorably at more of a carve up of their country as way to stop the invasion anyway. 

 

 

 

[Porthos]

 

 

I've seen takes you wouldn't believe in my time, but even then this is "fun" one.  

[cannastop]

edit: not sure if misinformation? deleted

Edited February 28, 2022 by cannastop

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

 

 

 

An interesting enough attempt at trying to crack the riddle that is the current mindset of Putin, but doesn't actually answer the question I posed, unless I missed it.

 

There is this:

 

Quote

But, necessary as all of that is, the prospect that Putin could be disappointed or even threatened by the effects of his own actions only increases the danger to the world. It is hard to imagine that a protracted war fought across all 230,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory (an expanse roughly the size of Texas) won’t spread to neighboring countries in some way, potentially triggering a direct confrontation with NATO. Sanctions and U.S.-sponsored cyberattacks will inevitably be met with Russian counterstrikes, which could have serious or even life-threatening consequences on this side of the Atlantic.

 

But that immediately turns into this:

Quote

And if an isolated Putin fears he is losing — and blames Western Europe or the United States for stoking dissent through sanctions and arming and supporting his enemies — he could make good on his promise to unleash “consequences you have never encountered in your history,” a not-at-all veiled threat to put some of the more than 6,200 nuclear weapons he has in his arsenal into play.

 

which isn't exactly a "cut your losses" play.

 

I suppose there is this:

 

Quote

Maybe Putin has solved the riddle that has eluded imperialists and would-be imperialists for over a century: how to conquer and subdue a mechanized, industrialized nation at minimum cost to his side. (Hitler, don’t forget, needed the complete acquiescence of every other European power to invade Czechoslovakia, and the direct military cooperation of the Soviet Union to take half of Poland in 1939.)

 

But that isn't "cutting losses" either, as that's actually winning with minimal effort.  

 

=================

 

Anyway I did have something of a think here and the only way I can see it is if he does a watered down play of Georgia where he says, more or less, "I've punished you enough, don't make me come over there and finish the job," with possibly forcing DNR/LNR autonomy to make the analogy firmer.  But he isn't at that stage yet.

 

I dunno.  Just don't see Putin walking away from this in the short to medium term, I suppose, as much as he absolutely should.

 

[Porthos]

Mind, as I type all of that and actually check my feeds after my nightly tracking report:

 

 

Many other tweets along those lines, some much more skeptical than others.

 

So....

 

...

 

I still wonder what the figleaf that Putin might try to claim here if this even came to pass.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Porthos

[dudalb]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Don't even have to read the link, as I'm sure I know what it's going to say.

 

The most got drat depressing thing was when I saw this, earlier:

 

 

 

There had been incremental moves all throughout these negotiations, and there was a sense that each side was waiting for the other to make the first "major move".

 

Well, in the opinion of the MLBPA the players did indeed make a first major move off of its asks, and the owners just brushed it off as "well that's not a give since we were never negotiating over that".  The players, predictably, were furious over that stance and allegedly were close to walking out of the negotiations, according to WaPo.

 

 

Not looking good in the slightest.  Do wonder now that MLBPA has made a major concession in its asks whether or not the owners will make a similar move. But I ain't holding my breath.

 

(gonna read the article now to see what Evan has to say about all of this mess)

No debate: Baseball is the worst ran of all the Major US Sports.

Baseball messes up so often fans have an expression: "Hey, it baseball, what can you expect?'.

[dudalb]

Just read Trump's speech. Vomit inducing even by Trump standards.

[Porthos]

On 2/21/2022 at 2:41 PM, grim22 said:

There you go underestimating Portugal again. @CJohnis just waiting for the order to move

 

On 2/21/2022 at 2:43 PM, Porthos said:

 

I look forward to his Ernest Hemingway/George Orwell style diaries reporting on the horrors and banality of war in due time.

 

 

French UKRAINE FOREIGN LEGION!!!!

 

YOUR TIME IS NOW, @CJohn!!!!