Weekend Thread | Actuals (p.100) ~ Thor: Ragnarok - 122.744M, Bad Moms 2 16.759M, Jigsaw 6.558M, Boo 2 4.451M, Geostorm 3.194M | GOLD ACCOUNT SALE (1st post for details) | 91k PTA for Lady Bird

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, La Binoche said:

even higher than estimated. this is massive. 

 

RISE QUEEN! RISE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TwoMisfits]

59 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

That would make sense if it hadn't opened to $100m+ and has stellar reviews and is a fun movie on top of it.  Also, the data points to this skewing to all demographics and doing very well with females.

 

Why won't folks want to watch it and what in the world does that have to do with anything in August and October?

For obvious reasons...

1. Casuals already have checked out on the series...it's a 3rd movie, not a 1st one, so you have to be open to the possibility that it has no more to give.  One big thing with Cap 3's shitty legs is that it was a 3rd movie as well...it had a huge swell of all the fans opening weekend (and it could meet them all b/c it got such huge screen and showing allocations) and then it kinda wound down fast...people have mentioned that some folks have a pre-existing feeling about the Thor character and franchise that may be hard to shake...

2. Thor was able to get all the showings and screens for the uber-fans this weekend, so there may not be any more to go...biggest screen and showing allocation all year (at least around here), so if you are an uber-fan, you had the ability to get a premier seat at a premier time at some point this weekend...so, there's not the usual unmet fan demand coming out of the weekend (unless you have your prebought cheap Tuesday tickets, which some fans will wait for:)...

 

Now, Vet's Day should give a buffer to this dropping too fast, especially since it's Friday this year...but by 3rd weekend, we could see a reverse with JL getting 7 of 12 late show screens at local theaters with Thor getting 1 and it could be in for a hard, fast drop from that point on...

 

To say that's not possible b/c it has a high comedic tone is to discount the other factors which might work against the movie...and being comedic vs being serious is not a guarantee that you will have long legs...

Edited November 4, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

It depends on marketing. Now that’s Thor is gone, it’s up to Disney to put some effort in Coco.

You keeping saying that, it’s not like Disney is stealing Coco’s budget marketing with no promos and ads

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

For obvious reasons...

1. Casuals already have checked out on the series...it's a 3rd movie, not a 1st one, so you have to be open to the possibility that it has no more to give.  One big thing with Cap 3's shitty legs is that it was a 3rd movie as well...it had a huge swell of all the fans opening weekend (and it could meet them all b/c it got such huge screen and showing allocations) and then it kinda wound down fast...people have mentioned that some folks have a pre-existing feeling about the Thor character and franchise that may be hard to shake...

2. Thor was able to get all the showings and screens for the uber-fans this weekend, so there may not be any more to go...biggest screen and showing allocation all year (at least around here), so if you are an uber-fan, you had the ability to get a premier seat as a premier time at some point this weekend...so, there's not the usual unmet fan demand coming out of the weekend (unless you have your prebought cheap Tuesday tickets, which some fans will wait for:)...

 

Now, Vet's Day should give a buffer to this dropping too fast, especially since it's Friday this year...but by 3rd weekend, we could see a reverse with JL getting 7 of 12 late show screens at local theaters with Thor getting 1 and it could be in for a hard, fast drop from that point on...

 

To say that's not possible b/c it has a high comedic tone is to discount the other factors which might work against the movie...and being comedic vs being serious is not a guarantee that you will have long legs...

Thor will still have multiple screens at midsize theaters when Justice League opens.

[YM!]

Just now, Jonwo said:

You keeping saying that, it’s not like Disney is stealing Coco’s budget marketing with no promos and ads

TGD and Moana are my examples. Good Dino got forgotten for TFA. Moana however stepped up their marketing game after Doctor Strange.

[Shawn Robbins]

Hey everyone! As you may have noticed in the past day or so, we've added a news ticker to the forum. We're still experimenting with it and it won't be active all the time initially, but the staff and I will definitely appreciate your feedback and thoughts about how to use it in the future.

 

For now, we're sticking to just a few uses per week for important updates -- such as the Thursday night and Friday # reports you've seen over the past 24 hours, as well as important forum news. Before anyone asks, we're considering other options but for now are only reporting what comes directly from the studios.

 

If it's an utter annoyance to the lot of you, we'll get rid of it. If you dig it and think it's a handy tool for staying up-to-date on important news, let us know and we'll keep it.

 

[YM!]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Thor will still have multiple screens at midsize theaters when Justice League opens.

I’d imagine Moms, DH2, and maybe OE depending on performance being the ones to suffer from screen loss. Thor should hold on to a decent amount since it’ll be the only holdover that’s making money.

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Hey everyone! As you may have noticed in the past day or so, we've added a news ticker to the forum. We're still experimenting with it and it won't be active all the time initially, but the staff and I will definitely appreciate your feedback and thoughts about how to use it in the future.

 

For now, we're sticking to just a few uses per week for important updates -- such as the Thursday night and Friday # reports you've seen over the past 24 hours), as well as important forum news. (Before anyone asks, we're considering other options but for now are only reporting what comes directly from the studios.)

 

If it's an utter annoyance to the lot of you, we'll get rid of it. If you dig it and think it's a handy tool for staying up-to-date on important news, let us know and we'll keep it.

 

I think it would be great for big openers not like every weekend.

[ThomasNicole]

22 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Since Thor and JL will be the big hits of November, BM2 underperforming, DH2 and OE likely underperforming, Wonder and The Star posting small but sufficient numbers. I’m curious on how Coco will perform. Will it be more like Tangled, Moana or go the $150M-$185M range?

I'm expecting at least Tangled numbers.

Tracking was $65M, now Thor was released, probably Disney will put more effort on Coco's marketing... i'm expeting $ 65 - 70M five-day debut or a little more

 

The reviews are really good too, it have 93% in RT with 14 reviews, average is 7.9 [which is pretty good]

From what i've reading, it's a really emotional movie too, so it should play well for families and have good legs.

[That One Girl]

liberal biased fake news #maga

[DAR]

Okay this is a bit embarassing but I thought Lady Bird was the second film after Jackie in the First Lady shared universe

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

You keeping saying that, it’s not like Disney is stealing Coco’s budget marketing with no promos and ads

Seriously. I'm getting really tired of the "Disney's not marketing Coco" arguments going around. Just because it's not gracing every cereal box at the food store like an Illumination film usually does doesn't mean it isn't there.

[ThomasNicole]

Great for Ragnarok, really happy because i loved the movie

 

Expecting $ 120 - 125M debut, i think it will have bigger jump today than Strange have last year

[That One Girl]

The marketing for Coco has indeed been very weak.  I think it'll do 150M or so

[KJsooner]

The lady bird from home alone 2 used to frighten me as a kid.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I'm expecting at least Tangled numbers.

Tracking was $65M, now Thor was released, probably Disney will put more effort on Coco's marketing... i'm expeting $ 65 - 70M five-day debut or a little more

 

The reviews are really good too, it have 93% in RT with 14 reviews, average is 7.9 [which is pretty good]

From what i've reading, it's a really emotional movie too, so it should play well for families and have good legs.

From what I’ve heard from audiences in Mexico is that Coco is good but they didn’t like the Frozen short.

[filmlover]

Just now, DAR said:

Okay this is a bit embarassing but I thought Lady Bird was the second film after Jackie in the First Lady shared universe

Well, LBJ also came out this weekend (in which Jennifer Jason Leigh plays Lady Bird Johnson to Woody Harrelson's Lyndon B.).

 

Speaking of which, I'm guessing that movie isn't making much given the mediocre reviews.

[YM!]

The trailer views for Coco have been weak.

[WrathOfHan]

Coco will be fine; it's the first animated movie worth a damn since the summer and Disney.

[Carlangonz]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

From what i've reading, it's a really emotional movie too, so it should play well for families and have good legs.

Third act is as emotional as Up's prologue.