TwoMisfits Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: How else do you explain the Sat/Sun holds though? All of the MCU films that have held on a comparable level on their first Sat/Sun's have had 2.65x+ multis. Lots of people may have argued something like CW would get great WOM, but when you get down to it the first Sat/Sun holds were already showing that might not be the case. Pretty empty Friday matinees at theaters that had 5-6 screens dedicated just to Thor...so, fans hit the movie when it was convenient b/c they had so many seat options available for the opening - and they hit it in the evenings (when Thor got 6-7 showings, even more than the original screens given), and all weekend... I mean, not saying that IS the reason, but it could be as likely as any other...it's been awhile (well, since It and before that, who knows) since theaters really had nothing to show but 1.5 movies (since Bad Moms was only an evening seller)... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 All I'm saying is Civil War is really the only film in the whole MCU you could argue that reception was very positive, yet the multi failed to hit that 2.65x threshold. So the odds seem highly in favor of TR hitting it to me. And TR has already behaved much less frontloaded than CW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 OS drops were all pretty good across the board. It doesn't always correlate, but I think it bodes pretty well for this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: All I'm saying is Civil War is really the only film in the whole MCU you could argue that reception was very positive, yet the multi failed to hit that 2.65x threshold. So the odds seem highly in favor of TR hitting it to me. And TR has already behaved much less frontloaded than CW. Kinda...1st Monday as a percent of opening Friday's total BO is almost identical between Cap 3 and Thor 3...so, I wouldn't say it's way less front-loaded til we see how the whole week and next week go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Typical BOT. Watch when Tuesday drops and the freak outs stop and come back Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Thor Rag just fell 75% on Monday. Is that really a great hold? I'm not sure this indicates great WOM or if it indicates that all the loonies rushed out to see it the first weekend. It's also hard to compare it to any film right now because of Veteran/Remembrance Day falling on a Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: Kinda...1st Monday as a percent of opening Friday's total BO is almost identical between Cap 3 and Thor 3...so, I wouldn't say it's way less front-loaded til we see how the whole week and next week go... That seems like kind of an odd comparison though. Wouldn't previews as a percentage of OW be a lot better indicator of front-loadedness? When it comes to that TR was right on par with the likes of GotG2, Cap 2, DS, and Ant-Man which were all around 11-12% of the OW, opposed to CW's 14%. Granted SMH had a similar share as CW and went on to a way better multi obviously, so that's not a perfect indicator, but still bodes well for TR for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Also, I wouldn't say the WOM on this is outstanding just yet. The Marvel loonies are the ones rushing out to see it first. They are going to like it of course. But the reviews for it on imdb are kind of split. I'm just saying that this isn't the panacea that everyone is claiming it to be. The Monday drop is pretty shit. And while the first Monday doesn't really mean all that much, it certainly dropped more than CW and DS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, The Last baumer said: Also, I wouldn't say the WOM on this is outstanding just yet. The Marvel loonies are the ones rushing out to see it first. They are going to like it of course. But the reviews for it on imdb are kind of split. I'm just saying that this isn't the panacea that everyone is claiming it to be. The Monday drop is pretty shit. And while the first Monday doesn't really mean all that much, it certainly dropped more than CW and DS. It dropped 3.7% more than DS with a way bigger Sunday gross. That hardly qualifies as a "shit" hold considering that movie cleared a 2.7x multi. Weren't you waging a similar argument about SMH's frontloadedness after the OW and that it wasn't getting more than 2.5x? It seems like you are always eager to hope for the worst with MCU... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: It dropped 3.7% more than DS with a way bigger Sunday gross. That hardly qualifies as a "shit" hold considering that movie cleared a 2.7x multi. Weren't you waging a similar argument about SMH's frontloadedness after the OW and that it wasn't getting more than 2.5x? It seems like you are always eager to hope for the worst with MCU... It seems like I don't get loonie with the multipliers. I didn't make the right call with SMH. Big deal. There are plenty of other Marvel movies that were the reason for my prediction. And a 75% Monday drop doesn't indicate a great hold or outstanding WOM. I concede that it's too soon to say whether the WOM is good or not but it's also too early to say it's going to have outstanding WOM also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fast and the Furiosa Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Honestly it’s hard to compare anything to early May when colleges are out. Weren’t we all jaw dropping at a 27% drop on Sunday? That’s nearly unprecedented for a film of this size during early November. Let’s see weekend 2 before leaning one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, The Last baumer said: Also, I wouldn't say the WOM on this is outstanding just yet. The Marvel loonies are the ones rushing out to see it first. They are going to like it of course. But the reviews for it on imdb are kind of split. I'm just saying that this isn't the panacea that everyone is claiming it to be. The Monday drop is pretty shit. And while the first Monday doesn't really mean all that much, it certainly dropped more than CW and DS. It's rating on Imdb is far higher than WW and SMH. The same is for Google users. Its user rating on RT is nearly same as WW and SMH. How is that split? Early days to call the WOM and ratings outstanding sure as these things tend to go down a bit after release. But I would call the reviews good if not anything else. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: It's rating on Imdb is far higher than WW and SMH. The same is for Google users. Its user rating on RT is nearly same as WW and SMH. How is that split? Early days to call the WOM and ratings outstanding sure as these things tend to go down a bit after release. But I would call the reviews good if not anything else. It's rating is high because it's the first weekend. And if you read the reviews on imdb, chronologically, in other words, not using IMDB's flawed and biased system, the reviews are split. It's okay everyone, you can love the film, no one can take that away from you. But it's not loved by everyone else. Not yet anyway. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3501632/reviews?filter=chrono Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 minute ago, The Last baumer said: It seems like I don't get loonie with the multipliers. I didn't make the right call with SMH. Big deal. There are plenty of other Marvel movies that were the reason for my prediction. And a 75% Monday drop doesn't indicate a great hold or outstanding WOM. I concede that it's too soon to say whether the WOM is good or not but it's also too early to say it's going to have outstanding WOM also. I'm currently predicting a multi between 2.65-2.7x, i.e. below the MCU average, and that's getting "loonie?" Brad over at BOM seems to be thinking it will hit 2.8x or so in his weekend write up. Better throw him in the asylum! The fact is, that CW is the one and only outlier in terms of critically acclaimed MCU films that missed that 2.65x mark. Again, the odds are far more in favor for Thor clearing 2.6x with ease than going lower than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Thinking 2.45. That’d be about the same legs as Thor 2 and get it over $300M 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: I'm currently predicting a multi between 2.65-2.7x, i.e. below the MCU average, and that's getting "loonie?" Brad over at BOM seems to be thinking it will hit 2.8x or so in his weekend write up. Better throw him in the asylum! The fact is, that CW is the one and only outlier in terms of critically acclaimed MCU films that missed that 2.65x mark. Again, the odds are far more in favor for Thor clearing 2.6x with ease than going lower than that. How long have you been at the forums? Do I really need to explain to you what I mean by saying "loonie"? The odds were also in the favour of Civil War of clearing 2.6 as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 hours ago, TalismanRing said: Is the tracking the same as it was 2 weeks ago, or has it changed? Same! Still around 100m. That could go up or down depending on reviews of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, The Last baumer said: It's rating is high because it's the first weekend. And if you read the reviews on imdb, chronologically, in other words, not using IMDB's flawed and biased system, the reviews are split. It's okay everyone, you can love the film, no one can take that away from you. But it's not loved by everyone else. Not yet anyway. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3501632/reviews?filter=chrono It's ratings out of the gate is similar to WW and SMH (mayyyyyybe 1-2 points lower). Those 2 still ended with very high rating. Any reason this would fall harder then them? And nah not reading imdb user reviews because a)spoilers and b)too much work. And Imdb rating system is flawed I agree with that 100% but the review section is not? It's not like anyone cant make an account and write a few lines. I still go by professional critics and the reviews by them are as strong as WW/SMH and thats all I need to know. And what a non statement about not being loved by everyone else. That is true of every movie and no one is saying that of this movie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: It's ratings out of the gate is similar to WW and SMH (mayyyyyybe 1-2 points lower). Those 2 still ended with very high rating. Any reason this would fall harder then them? And nah not reading imdb user reviews because a)spoilers and b)too much work. And Imdb rating system is flawed I agree with that 100% but the review section is not? It's not like anyone cant make an account and write a few lines. I still go by professional critics and the reviews by them are as strong as WW/SMH and thats all I need to know. And what a non statement about not being loved by everyone else. That is true of every movie and no one is saying that of this movie. Any reason? Sure. It's Thor and it's not a great film. Again, you guys can like it, that's fine, but it's agreed across the board that this isn't going to play any different than a typical fan rush of a movie that not many other people really care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 The only thing I can see realistically hurting TR's multi besides JL is somewhat of a need to have seen the first two films, both of which are some of the lesser successful MCU films. But even then, the majority of the humor and plot would still work if you haven't seen the prior two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
