Thursday #s: TLJ 17.8M, Jumanji 7.55M, TGS 2.1M

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

I'm not buying this "you simpleton plebs just don't get it or have lost your minds routine" anymore. The movie is FAR from a disappointment in the big picture, but nobody can spin these drops. Nobody can spin that it's only jumping a couple percent today (RO rose 12.1%).

 

You may be some industry hotshot, Empire, but most of us arent idiots. Many will agree that, again, the big picture the movie is another massive success for Disney. That's not the issue. Stop moving the goalposts.

 

I can gladly go through the 12 pages of this thread and go post by post and show you that 85% of it is garbage.  

 

No offense, but the board relatively is made up with extreme novices that don't have a clue what they are talking about.  Sure, there are some really good and knowledgeable people here and a lot of them smarter than a lot of people who get paid to do this stuff.  The rest of you aren't idiots, just ignorant and instead of trying to research and learn you are taking turns trying to be more edgy and it is flat out embarrassing after a while.  

 

I'm no "industry hotshot".  I'm a nobody, but I know for damn sure that 20+ years ago when I first started seriously following the industry I didn't spend my time seeing if my voice could be the loudest in the room.  I spent most of my time listening, reading, learning and asking questions of people that knew more than I did.  

 

This was of course before social media existed and message boards weren't a race to see you could say the most ridiculous thing or make the snarkiest joke.  It has robbed people of their sanity and intellect.  I know I seem mad and annoyed on here, and often times I am.  Instead of staying calm and measured in my responses, I gave that up a while ago because I had to consider the audience I was speaking to and let frustration take over.  

 

It sucks logging on day after day hoping there will be mostly rational discussion and unfortunately see the opposite and a daily thread where people are posting video misrepresenting what an actor said or opining like an expert on the box office but not having a fucking clue on how theater bookings and obligations work.  It's maddening.  People should be asking more questions instead of speaking as if they know what the fuck they are talking about when they don't.   

[junkshop36]

30 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

You literally have absolutely no clue of how any of this works and are so painfully wrong on nearly everything in this post. 

 

Your theater had 28 shows last week because it cleared out all old product from the building and had the room to show 28 shows of it as there was only 1 other movie opening (if they even carried it and likely didn't give it shows last Thursday). This week there are 7 or 8 new movies releasing and they are contractually obligated to play those new movies clean without stealing shows from them.  They have half the shows gone because they have a bunch of new movies they have to play.  They literally can't show more or they risk breaking their contractual obligations.  

 

They aren't "slowly removing any showing it can if it has anything better", they are following their master agreement for the new films they are obligated to open.  

 

Not to mention, why would they start removing it for “something better!”  What the hell else is out that’s better. Jumanji just did in its first two days barely as much as TLJ did on Wednesday alone lol. 

[EmpireCity]

Just now, junkshop36 said:

 

Not to mention, why would they start removing it for “something better!”  What the hell else is out that’s better. Jumanji just did in its first two days barely as much as TLJ did on Wednesday alone lol. 

 

It seems their argument and logic is because they pay 10 points less for other movies, but the logic in making that post was because he/she saw show counts going down that it meant the theater was removing them for "something better".  

 

The hilarious thing is you could see the counts drop on Wednesday, Fri-Sun and then Monday again.  

 

Huh, I wonder what could have been happening on Wednesday, Friday Monday this week and coming week that might have reduced shows??

[dxmatrixdt]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

It seems their argument and logic is because they pay 10 points less for other movies, but the logic in making that post was because he/she saw show counts going down that it meant the theater was removing them for "something better".  

 

The hilarious thing is you could see the counts drop on Wednesday, Fri-Sun and then Monday again.  

 

Huh, I wonder what could have been happening on Wednesday, Friday Monday this week and coming week that might have reduced shows??

is there a chance if TLJ had better weekdays, it would loose fewer of the excess showtimes and instead Ferdinand would start getting cut?  Or is it purely Star Wars showings getitng cut since it might have 33% of the prints available at theaters.

[dxmatrixdt]

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Edited May 6, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Rebeccas]

1 minute ago, Matrix4You said:

I have a theory that most of the people spreading bad buzz for TLJ never actually saw the movie.  Or maybe I saw a different Star Wars movie because I thought it was great

Wow well if you thought it was great that must mean everyone did!

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Matrix4You said:

is there a chance if TLJ had better weekdays, it would loose fewer of the excess showtimes and instead Ferdinand would start getting cut?  Or is it purely Star Wars showings getitng cut since it might have 33% of the prints available at theaters.

The Last Jedi could be making twice what it is right now and it wouldn't still lose roughly the same shows.  Ferdinand wouldn't get cut at this point because theaters have to give it a clean schedule and can't take shows from it.  The first opportunity theaters would have to start taking from Ferdinand would be maybe the evening of the 28th.  

 

Now that doesn't mean that theaters sometimes don't do it anyways and hope they don't get caught, but if they get caught they risk the studio pulling the movie and possibly whatever other movies they have running at the theater or triggering a penalty rate for missed shows.  If a studio suspects this, they can request the projector logs and find out if the movie played or not, and if it didn't then the theater would be in trouble and in violation of their agreement.  Most theaters won't pull this in the first 2 weeks of a films release, but if they have old movies hanging around they might steal a show here and there.  

 

For example on the print question, a theater might only have 2 prints of Star Wars they are obligated to show, but they can elect to put it on 10 screens if they have the room.  That is what you saw happening last Thursday and Friday and is how movies get to a $200m+ opening weekend.  

[Lancelot Gold]

8 hours ago, lancelot123 said:

Posted this in Wednesday thread, but it's better being here.

 

Assuming 17.5 is close for Thursday, I'll undercut and assume 17 for these predictions.

 

Thursday 17.0

Friday 27.88 (+64%)

Saturday 37.64 (+35%)

Sunday 30 (-20%)

Monday 54 (+80%)

2

@EmpireCity These look like they have a chance, or am I way off? Christmas Day and Eve were the hardest ones for me to come up with a % since there isn't a lot of data. Used JW and TFA to help, with R1 too maybe. Been a few hours and I was doing it at work on scratch paper so I forget, haha.

 

Before 17.5 was estimated for Thursday, I was looking between -8% to +2% based on what I was seeing with the other movies. Not exactly a small range, lol.

[junkshop36]

Saw a post on Twitter from SWNN asking people to rate TLJ from 0-10. This is what they’ve got so far:

 

0-2/10 - 4%

3-5/10 - 9%

6-8/10 - 23%

8-10/10 - 64%

 

Total votes = 3,480

 

I know it’s a small sample size but you are talking about die hard fans and at least it’s something positive about the movie for a change in these threads lol

[dxmatrixdt]

19 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

For example on the print question, a theater might only have 2 prints of Star Wars they are obligated to show, but they can elect to put it on 10 screens if they have the room.  That is what you saw happening last Thursday and Friday and is how movies get to a $200m+ opening weekend.  

yessss.  So I'm guessing it is like that all the time.  Theater has to play a minimum, they exceed the minimum, then start cutting back.  It looks like the film is suffering screen losses, but it still has the security of being shown for a longer length of time.  This year, The Space Between Us, Collide, and Just Getting Started shed screens fast.  A Monster Calls and Miss Sloane, Jane Got A Gun will go to 1 showing the next week and then disappear the week after.  They must not have a multiple showing guarantee, but a print play per day guarantee for a length of two weeks!  

[Ryan Reynolds]

16 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

Saw a post on Twitter from SWNN asking people to rate TLJ from 0-10. This is what they’ve got so far:

 

0-2/10 - 4%

3-5/10 - 9%

6-8/10 - 23%

8-10/10 - 64%

 

Total votes = 3,480

 

I know it’s a small sample size but you are talking about die hard fans and at least it’s something positive about the movie for a change in these threads lol

still the diehard fans would see a sw film 5+, now they may see it 2 times or less

[Lancelot Gold]

2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

still the diehard fans would see a sw film 5+, now they may see it 2 times or less

Never made it past 3 times for one movie while in theaters myself. Not because I didn't want to, just time and money.

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Matrix4You said:

yessss.  So I'm guessing it is like that all the time.  Theater has to play a minimum, they exceed the minimum, then start cutting back.  It looks like the film is suffering screen losses, but it still has the security of being shown for a longer length of time.  This year, The Space Between Us, Collide, and Just Getting Started shed screens fast.  A Monster Calls and Miss Sloane, Jane Got A Gun will go to 1 showing the next week and then disappear the week after.  They must not have a multiple showing guarantee, but a print play per day guarantee for a length of two weeks!  

 

Correct.  If your theater is playing Movie X 5 times per day, then they have to play Movie Y 5 times per day in the same rough time frame.  Above that, if Movie X plays 20 times per day, then Movie Y still only has to play 5 times per day.  

 

That agreement usually lasts for 2 weeks in most cases and then from there if the numbers are bad, then maybe the studio allows it to split and the theater and only play 1 or 2 times per day or will be gone completely.  If the numbers are good and above a certain level, then it continues to play a clean schedule.  There are rare cases if a movie completely bombs after 1 week, then a theater could get out of it or only play it a few times per day the second week.  That is rare and a movie has to completely fail.  

[dxmatrixdt]

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Edited May 6, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Rthmessiah]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

PS - One extra worry I have is that theaters have no incentive to sell this if they have better product, since they retain 10% less in ticket sales...one of my locals is slowly removing any showings it can if it has anything better...28 last weekend to 21 through Tuesday to 18 from Wed through Saturday to 13/14/15 come Sunday-Thursday...that's 1/2 the showings gone in 9 days from original opening weekend...

10% less ticket sales?

Session not surprising the theatre regardless or how well (or not) its doing with TLJ it could have committed as many screens/sessions as it could until other films they had booked opened at which point sessions would have to be dropped to allocate to commitments on new product , the session change on TLJ is as long as they match or better the policy that  they agreed on to run the film.

 

Screen counts on even the biggest films can start dropping substantially after week1

 

 

[Porthos]

I'll say a couple of things for the umpteenth time, perhaps rephrased.

 

TLJ is obviously not a universally loved film.  The main question is: What percentage of the audience truly hates it versus what percentage thinks it is good but flawed versus what percentage thinks it's great.

 

There's something else at play though,. This is still a damn sequel of a massive geek property, even if it has huge GA appeal.  We see frontloading in damn near every geek property today, including Star Wars, if it is a sequel to an already established line. It is entirely possible that this fllm had a frontloaded OW because of the fans out there wanting to see it right away. We saw the same damn thing last year with Rogue One.  Hell, being frontloaded was brought up incessantly in Baumer's famous under 450 club even before release.

 

And you know what?  IMO R1 WAS frontloaded to a degree.  People were wondering about its legs that first week as well.  The only different thing between now and then is that we have an RT Auidence Score scapegoat to point to.  Otherwise, I'm hearing nearly the exact same arguments as before.

 

Truth is, we still don't know what the legs of TLJ will be, except to say it won't have the mega legs of TFA.  But considering that beast was still somehow burning OW spillover on its first Monday after a near 250 bow, that should have been obvious.

 

Maybe this will 'collapse' and only hit 600 or 650.  Anything is possible in a world that elected Trump.

 

But here's the thing. That still means TLJ will have done 400 million fucking dollars after its OW.  I said this last year and I'll say it again,. Sometimes I think this board gets too wrapped up in legs and multipliers.  I know why we do.  I do it myself.

 

However, and I'll slightly rephrase what I said last year, any and I do mean any, film that does over 400 freaking million dollars after its OW is a smashing success.  Period.  End of.

 

(end rant )

Edited December 22, 2017 by Porthos

[dxmatrixdt]

these 10 days are going to tell alot about the public response to drastic new product in the film market.  Unfortunately, the market is always changing therefore whatever happens will not be set in stone.  However, maybe this always happens in December now, I gues...

[Rthmessiah]

 

TLJ 18.1, Jum 7.6, TGS 2.1, F 1.7, Coco 1.3

[ACSlater]

Just now, The Greatest Rth said:

 

TLJ 18.1, Jum 7.6, TGS 2.1, F 1.7, Coco 1.3

 

Awesome

 

L

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, The Greatest Rth said:

 

TLJ 18.1, Jum 7.6, TGS 2.1, F 1.7, Coco 1.3

 

Thanks!