Brainbug Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said: If $17.5m holds, then it would need Pursuit of Happyness jumps to reach around $81m for the weekend. This is not impossible, but Pursuit of Happyness was a big time outlier on the high end compared to every other holdover in 2006. With Eragon daily percentages each day, it would mean a weekend around $62m. Charlotte's Web daily percentages would be around $57m. I get that we have to use the 2006 December movies as comparisons, but are they really that useful for a movie that outgrossed all of them in one week? I think TLJ's performance with this calendar configuration might be unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart360 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm loving this. Even the excuses are starting to dry up now that reality is dawning on some people. My "dats borderline trolling" $600-650mil total is looking better by the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brainbug said: I get that we have to use the 2006 December movies as comparisons, but are they really that useful for a movie that outgrossed all of them in one week? I think TLJ's performance with this calendar configuration might be unique. Yes, we have to see how it goes and should be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 35 minutes ago, Brainbug said: One question: Could the longer running time for TLJ depress a small percentage of its grosses? With trailers and all, you sit a good 3 hours in the theater. Probably too big on an event, well reviewed and trust in place to have people turned away by the runtime, like it could for a very long Transformer entry or unknown title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I wanna know something that I asked in the Wednesday thread too late... How the fuck did Avatar beat Half-Blood Prince in cinematography at the Oscars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, stuart360 said: I'm loving this. Even the excuses are starting to dry up now that reality is dawning on some people. My "dats borderline trolling" $600-650mil total is looking better by the day. Lol your turning into the Palpatine for the box office of this film Wonder when arms are gonna get chopped off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 (edited) Given the toxic WoM, I reckon the rest of the week will look like this! Fri: 14m (-20%) Sat: 9.8m (-30%) Sun: 2m (-80%) Mon: 2.2m (+0.1%) Tues: -1.5m (-150%) Wed: -16.5m (-1000%) Thu: -841.5m (-50000%) Fri: Disney Pulls it from theaters in fear of losing more money from refunds DOM Total: -553.5m! Edited December 21, 2017 by The Last Panda 7 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyChrono Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Brainbug said: I get that we have to use the 2006 December movies as comparisons, but are they really that useful for a movie that outgrossed all of them in one week? I think TLJ's performance with this calendar configuration might be unique. It's possible... but I think its fair to say that in general, franchise blockbusters have been getting more and more frontloaded since 2006. Thus, the 2006 trends might turn out to be an upper bound on TLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, The Last Panda said: Given the toxic WoM, I reckon the rest of the week will look like this! Fri: 14m (-20%) Sat: 9.8m (-30%) Sun: 2m (-80%) Mon: 2.2m (+0.1%) Tues: -1.5m (-150%) Wed: -16.5m (-1000%) Thu: -841.5m (-5000%) Fri: Disney Pulls it from theaters in fear of losing more money from refunds DOM Total: -553.5m! Friday: Rian Johnson is arrested by the First Order of Star Wars Fanatics 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, The Last Panda said: Given the toxic WoM, I reckon the rest of the week will look like this! Fri: 14m (-20%) Sat: 9.8m (-30%) Sun: 2m (-80%) Mon: 2.2m (+0.1%) Tues: -1.5m (-150%) Wed: -16.5m (-1000%) Thu: -841.5m (-5000%) Fri: Disney Pulls it from theaters in fear of losing more money from refunds DOM Total: -553.5m! I think your Monday Day number is a bit optimistic. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyChrono Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Noctis said: I wanna know something that I asked in the Wednesday thread too late... How the fuck did Avatar beat Half-Blood Prince in cinematography at the Oscars? HBP was too two dimensional. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart360 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said: Friday: Rian Johnson is arrested by the First Order of Star Wars Fanatics 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancelot Gold Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, WrathOfHan said: That Sunday drop is about 30% too low. TFA dropped 27% on Christmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 > NEW RELEASES 2 2 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony / Columbia 3,765 - - 1 4 - Pitch Perfect 3 Universal 3,447 - - 1 5 6 The Greatest Showman Fox 3,006 - - 1 6 - Father Figures Warner Bros. 2,902 - - 1 7 - Downsizing Paramount 2,668 - - 1 19 - Tiger Zinda Hai Yash Raj 300 - - 1 28 - The Post Fox 9 - - 1 31 - Happy End Sony Classics 3 - - 1 32 - Hostiles Entertainment Studios 3 - - 1 > EXPANDING 3 3 Ferdinand Fox 3,630 +9 +0.2% 2 12 28 Darkest Hour Focus Features 805 +721 +858.3% 5 13 22 The Shape of Water Fox Searchlight 726 +568 +359.5% 4 22 37 Call Me by Your Name Sony Classics 114 +84 +280.0% 5 > NO CHANGE 1 1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi Buena Vista 4,232 - - 2 > DECLINING 8 4 Coco Buena Vista 2,111 -1,044 -33.1% 5 9 9 The Star Sony / Columbia 1,106 -830 -42.9% 6 10 7 Justice League Warner Bros. 1,101 -1,601 -59.3% 6 11 8 Daddy's Home 2 Paramount 1,073 -1,420 -57.0% 7 14 11 Thor: Ragnarok Buena Vista 701 -1,194 -63.0% 8 15 14 The Disaster Artist A24 517 -522 -50.2% 4 16 10 Murder on the Orient Express (2017) Fox 447 -1,476 -76.8% 7 17 15 Lady Bird A24 402 -575 -58.9% 8 18 16 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Fox Searchlight 307 -637 -67.5% 7 20 13 A Bad Moms Christmas STX Entertainment 275 -763 -73.5% 8 21 18 The Man Who Invented Christmas Bleecker Street 146 -173 -54.2% 5 23 21 Geostorm Warner Bros. 110 -51 -31.7% 10 The Shape of Water ended up staying on the lower end of Searchlight's 700-800 range. It'll be expanding into 1k+ on the 5th, which I think could go a little higher if Father Figures bombs as much as I'm expecting it to. Huuuuuge drops for basically every holdover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I’m still holding out hope Jumanji gets to $200M Domestic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, Brainbug said: I get that we have to use the 2006 December movies as comparisons, but are they really that useful for a movie that outgrossed all of them in one week? I think TLJ's performance with this calendar configuration might be unique. The cool thing about it is we are getting data that will help us in the future. These Star Wars movies are planting the flag on certain release dates and we can use that data for other big franchises in the future with these December dates. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 (edited) 1 minute ago, lancelot123 said: TFA dropped 27% on Christmas eve. Thursday vs Sunday is going to be the biggest difference. When Christmas last landed on a Monday in 2006, movies dropped 50-64% on Sunday. Edited December 21, 2017 by WrathOfHan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 34 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said: No it just to dispel the endless excuses. Tomorrow we will blame a 3.7 earthquake in California. Look at Nostradamus over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, redfirebird2008 said: The cool thing about it is we are getting data that will help us in the future. These Star Wars movies are planting the flag on certain release dates and we can use that data for other big franchises in the future with these December dates. Unless the Avatar sequels pull some crazy James Cameron bullshit and nullify all the comps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
