4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[AndyChrono]

16 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Needs a 40% lead on Rogue One the rest of the way to reach 700. That is gonna be very hard. Friday-Saturday was 41.5% ahead with Rogue One’s Saturday neutered by Christmas Eve. 

700m literally requires Wonder Woman legs at this point. TLJ was at 296.6m going into the 4-day weekend. If the current estimates of ~100m for the 4-day weekend hold, then it needs roughly a 4x of this 4-day weekend to reach 700m. Heck, it needs 3.6x of the 4-day estimates to even sink Titanic.

[redfirebird2008]

If 27 Monday is true, it needs to beat Rogue One by 20% rest of the way to reach Jurassic World’s 652 gross. This is a long way from guaranteed to happen. 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

If 27 Monday is true, it needs to beat Rogue One by 20% rest of the way to reach Jurassic World’s 652 gross. This is a long way from guaranteed to happen. 

Wow, that's kind of crazy. So how low could it realistically go then?

[Hermia]

What does the second image Rth posted stands for? The 4-day Weekend? 

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Wow, that's kind of crazy. So how low could it realistically go then?

 

620ish with 7% lead on Rogue One rest of the way. 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

620ish with 7% lead on Rogue One rest of the way. 

Not beating Avengers would be insane. Would have probably called it near impossible pre-release.

Edited December 26, 2017 by MovieMan89

[TigerPaw]

If it really gets 27m, that is lower than Saturday.. Gosh.

[a2k]

To give an idea of how much JP2 under-performed, it dropped 35.8% from JP1. That same drop from SW7 gives SW8 601m. Imagine the horror if that had happened. On the other hand an SM1 to SM2 like drop would have given 865m to SW8.

HP1 (317.5m) to HP2 (262m) like drop would have given 773m. It's not all a fair comp as SW7 had a lot going for it but still fun thinking about.

[Elessar]

Well, well, well....

[MinaTakla]

Crazy to think Star Wars may only narrowly beat BATB WW if it continues this underperformance.

 

[MovieMan89]

13 minutes ago, a2knet said:

To give an idea of how much JP2 under-performed, it dropped 35.8% from JP1. That same drop from SW7 gives SW8 601m. Imagine the horror if that had happened. On the other hand an SM1 to SM2 like drop would have given 865m to SW8.

HP1 (317.5m) to HP2 (262m) like drop would have given 773m. It's not all a fair comp as SW7 had a lot going for it but still fun thinking about.

This perfectly illustrates why WOM is a big factor even in these sequels to juggernaut box office phenoms. Yes the nature of those kinds of box officer titans almost always indicates a drop no matter what for the sequel, but look at the three you mentioned. SM2 was received arguably even better than SM1 upon release, and thus had a small 7% drop from its predecessor. HP2 was received on par or maybe slightly worse than HP1 and had a 17% drop. JP2 was received poorly and had a massive 36% drop off. Of the three, TLJ is trending the closest right now to JP2's drop off by far. Likewise, SM2 is probably the drop range we could have expected if WOM had been even better than TFA, and HP2 if WOM had been similar. 

Edited December 26, 2017 by MovieMan89

[Elessar]

I find it mean on RTH's part, not just flat out telling us the number. Can't quite believe $27m to be honest...

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Elessar said:

I find it mean on RTH's part, not just flat out telling us the number. Can't quite believe $27m to be honest...

 

He also gave Apocalypse emoji when someone guessed 35. Definitely seems to be way under what we hoped, whether it’s 27 or 28 or even 29-30. People were hoping for 35-40 last night. 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Elessar said:

I find it mean on RTH's part, not just flat out telling us the number. Can't quite believe $27m to be honest...

Yeah not sure what the deal with that is, watch him come in and tell us like 36 or something lol. 

[aabattery]

This is why you gotta avoid saying things are locked. Lotta people saying the big numbers were locked last week and stuff. Don't wanna commit yourself like that, my dudes. Maintain deniability at all times.

 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, ReyReyBattery said:

This is why you gotta avoid saying things are locked. Lotta people saying the big numbers were locked last week and stuff. Don't wanna commit yourself like that, my dudes. Maintain deniability at all times.

 

 

[XO21]

44 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not beating Avengers would be insane. Would have probably called it near impossible pre-release.

Yeah...I didn’t buy the bad/average wom discussion.. but you and others were right.

 

TFA set the bar really high...I hope Ep 9 makes it to $700m..

Edited December 26, 2017 by XO21

[baumer]

It's 430 here. Just woke up for a minute to check numbers.

 

I was obviously way way wrong by expecting north of 100% jump for TLJ. 

 

You can no longer say that it's a vocal minority of Star Wars nerds who are trying to create bad word of mouth.

 

There's a lot of people who absolutely just hated this movie. And to illustrate the point even more, when I got to my brother's house for Christmas he asked me how the movie was and I express to him that I didn't enjoy it all that much and he said to me that that is what he has been hearing from other people as well.

 

 27 million on Christmas Day  is absolutely positively horrendous. If that number is true then not only is 700 dead but it COULD be in jeopardy of not passing Titanic. 

 

The vocal minority (as some have called those of us who didnt care for it) aren't such a minority after all.

[baumer]

Oh and too bad @scabab didnt take my bet when he had the chance. The site would have $100 richer.

[Brainbug]

36 minutes ago, Elessar said:

Well, well, well....

 

Props to you. Your were certainly right with your guess that TLJ wont jump that high.

 

And im eating crow now. This number is really bad, horrible id even say. Now we can say that the WOM is mixed. I wont say its bad, because there appear to be more people that loved/liked it than those who disliked/hated it (even on the Internet), but mixed WOM has nearly the same effect as bad WOM. Also, while i will see this 5 times, (i saw TFA 3 times in theaters), the SW fans who didnt like it wont see it again probably. And when Repeat viewings are damaged, the WOM is mixed, and then comes the longer running time and (yes) surprising competition in form of Jumanji, well then we have to settle for a disappointing run in relation to our expectations. Because calling any film doing 600M+ DOM "bad" or "disappointing" in itself would be lunatic.

 

I think this also gives us a good hint at Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdoms run. Whether or not the WOM is mixed, it will fall hard from JW's 652. Better settle our (my) expectations a little lower then

 

And btw, Box office is not the most important thing about a movie. I loved The Last Jedi and its now my favourite SW movie. I coudnt be more excited for Episode IX. So thats what counts for me.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Brainbug