4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

A few days ago, TLJ could sit comfortably at all time #3 , but now , if that 27m holds, any "missteps" of TLJ will put it be#7 of all time

 

Not possible to end up #7. Avengers at #5 is $623m and then huge drop to TDK at #6 with $534m. 

 

If it grosses same thing as Rogue One rest of the way, it will finish around $610m. 

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Not possible to end up #7. Avengers at #5 is $623m and then huge drop to TDK at #6 with $534m. 

 

If it grosses same thing as Rogue One rest of the way, it will finish around $610m. 

Typo, #6 I mean

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

A few days ago, TLJ could sit comfortably at all time #3 , but now , if that 27m holds, any "missteps" of TLJ will put it be#7 of all time

 

Edit: Ok, you meant Number 6. Very unlikely, but not impossible at this point sadly.

 

8 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

And by the time it get released there in January, the bad buzz or at least divisive wom has already hurt or widespread to Chinese audience

 

Again, that doesnt even matter in China. They dont like SW period. Whether the WOM in the rest of the world is good or bad they dont care.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Brainbug

[KP1025]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Again, that doesnt even matter in China. They dont like SW period. Whether the WOM in the rest of the world is good or bad they dont care.

3

I'm thinking China might have a 80% second weekend drop like South Korea. Jumanji will take a lot of screens.

[Boxofficerules]

Is there anyway to find out in depth statistics on movies? For example if I wanted to find out what % of audience members that saw TLJ where between the ages of 13-17, is there a place that breaks it all down?

[redfirebird2008]

Needs to outgross Rogue One by about 7% rest of the way to finish at $623.5m, slightly above The Avengers. 

 

This will not be anywhere near as easy as we thought on opening weekend. Maybe we should have listened to Luke’s comment in the marketing. “This will NOT go the way you think.”

 

I will readily eat my share of crow for saying 680ish was locked on opening weekend. 

[Brainbug]

17 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

I'm thinking China might have a 80% second weekend drop like South Korea. Jumanji will take a lot of screens.

 

It seems that the Asian world just doesnt like SW (apart from Japan that is). But it makes sense, since the OT came out when these markets were very small. Asia (and especially China) have just grown to bigger levels this century. So their SW are basically the big franchises of the 2000s, aka Harry Potter/LOTR/Marvel and POTC and ofc, their own local productions. 

 

Japan is the exception, because it was a developed movie market long before the likes of China or India.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Brainbug

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Needs to outgross Rogue One by about 7% rest of the way to finish at $623.5m, slightly above The Avengers. 

 

This will not be anywhere near as easy as we thought on opening weekend. Maybe we should have listened to Luke’s comment in the marketing. “This will NOT go the way you think.”

 

I will readily eat my share of crow for saying 680ish was locked on opening weekend. 

 

I never liked the word "locked". I think that every BO run is to a certain level unpredictable. I mean, nearly everyone on the planet said that TFA was "locked" to NOT top the OW record, because it was December, and we know how that turned out.

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I never liked the word "locked". I think that every BO run is to a certain level unpredictable. I mean, nearly everyone on the planet said that TFA was "locked" to NOT top the OW record, because it was December, and we know how that turned out.

 

Agree. But I guess that is the fun part of following the box office. Like Forrest Gump would say, we never know what we’re gonna get.

 

I am still very curious to see this movie’s run through rest of the holidays. In some ways it becomes more interesting to see if it can beat some lower milestones like Avengers and Jurassic World. 

[Brainbug]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Agree. But I guess that is the fun part of following the box office. Like Forrest Gump would say, we never know what we’re gonna get.

 

I am still very curious to see this movie’s run through rest of the holidays. In some ways it becomes more interesting to see if it can beat some lower milestones like Avengers and Jurassic World. 

 

We are truly spoiled when we consider TA1 and JW "lower milestones" , but i agree.

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

We are truly spoiled when we consider TA1 and JW "lower milestones" , but i agree.

 

Yep. Spoiled for sure.  

[bladels]

Angry Star Wars fans are supporting Jumanji 

[Brainbug]

Btw, i dont usually like Scott Mendelsons articles, but i think this is a good one:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/12/25/can-star-wars-recover-from-last-jedis-rave-reviews-and-huge-grosses/#3c153ac17d2e

 

Helps to give TLJ's run a bit of a more neutral perspective.

 

1 minute ago, bladels said:

Angry Star Wars fans are supporting Jumanji 

 

[Deathlife]

I think EC has a point on the running time though.

 

Purely anecdotal but TLJ started off here in South Africa with significantly less showings than the TFA because of the running time. With the new releases it’s lost a lot of screens and showings.

 

For some reason (again anecdotal) but Jumanji is getting a TON of screens and showings. This is probably due to the run time and Jumanji simply looking like a good time for the entire family.

 

Im not discounting the mixed word of mouth (most of my favorite online reviewers are divided on the movie and I’m not talking about the ass hats complaining about SJWs or female characters, I’m talking relatively serious geek sites) but the run time can be a little daunting in the face of relatively serious competition like (shock) Jumanji.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Deathlife

[weresweresweres]

Do you think that Jumanji will have an expansion? Right now they have as many theatres as Ferdinand...

[Galupp]

How likely is it for Jumanji to outgross Justice League both DOM and WW?

[weresweresweres]

3 minutes ago, Galupp said:

How likely is it for Jumanji to outgross Justice League both DOM and WW?

 

Domestic 90%.

[Mojoguy]

Do you think that Jumanji will have an expansion? Right now they have as many theatres as Ferdinand...

Ferdinand is bound to lose a ton of theaters this Friday, and Jumanji will be getting those screens for sure.

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, Galupp said:

How likely is it for Jumanji to outgross Justice League both DOM and WW?

 

Very high chance for dom, I have no clue for OS. It seems to be doing well in a lot of Asian territories so if it breaks out big in China or something it could definitely challenge it.

[IronJimbo]

37 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

It seems that the Asian world just doesnt like SW (apart from Japan that is). But it makes sense, since the OT came out when these markets were very small. Asia (and especially China) have just grown to bigger levels this century.

Yep, Star Wars success is based on nostalgia. Even TPM relies on you knowing some Star Wars lore.

 

I promise you all that if you erased your Star Wars memories before going imto TFA, you would not have loved it.