4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[redfirebird2008]

15 minutes ago, Reyhawk said:

Very true, probably looking at a RO-like drop at worst though.

 

Yep, I think maybe pretty close to flat in either direction. Let's say it does 80 this weekend. Could see 75 (-6%) or 85 (+6%) in the third weekend.

[AndyK]

How did they figure the Fri jump for the TLJ to be 73%?

 

I make it 63%

[JonathanLB]

Just now, AndyK said:

How did they figure the Fri jump for the TLJ to be 73%?

 

I make it 63%

How are you going to make it that? Can you convince a few hundred thousand people not to see it?  I'm just teasing you hehe. I'm going tonight again at 10:30.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

9 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Yep, I think maybe pretty close to flat in either direction. Let's say it does 80 this weekend. Could see 75 (-6%) or 85 (+6%) in the third weekend.

Yeah should be in a good position for the 2nd biggest 3rd weekend ever, maybe challenge for #1 if the number rises for this weekend. That's pretty crazy when it's gonna drop close to 66% this weekend from OW. Shows how the calendar configuration around the holidays really affects the box office

Edited December 22, 2017 by Reyhawk

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, AndyK said:

How did they figure the Fri jump for the TLJ to be 73%?

 

I make it 63%

 

73% drop from last Friday.

[AndyK]

2 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

 

73% drop from last Friday.

Its dropped 48% from last friday.

[JonathanLB]

That drop from last Friday has changed my mind, about everything. This movie will be gone from theaters by two weeks from now. Another 73% drop next Friday means it'll be lucky to make even $8M next Friday. The Friday after that one, maybe $2M, so by the following Friday the grosses will be so bad it will be dumped in favor of a re-release of Gigli. 

[Sam]

7 minutes ago, AndyK said:

How did they figure the Fri jump for the TLJ to be 73%?

 

I make it 63%

It’s a +58% from Thu 

 

They mean -73% from last Friday (including previews)

Edited December 22, 2017 by Sam

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, AndyK said:

Its dropped 48% from last friday.

 

Not if you include preview?

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, AndyK said:

Its dropped 48% from last friday.

 

104,684,491 - 73% = 28,264,812.57

[MovieMan89]

46 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Heh, maybe, but I really doubt it. If Christmas hits upper 30s and the 26th is also upper 30s, it's not going to fall to $20M on Wednesday and Thursday. There is zero chance of that. More like upper 20s / $30M.

Zero percent chance Xmas will be upper 30s with a 28m Friday. You do know it’s dropping a solid 50% on Xmas eve right?  27-33 should be the range for Xmas based on this Friday.

Edited December 22, 2017 by MovieMan89

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, Sam said:

It’s a +58% from Thu 

 

They mean -73% from last Friday (including previews)

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

Not if you include preview?

Just now, ReyReyBattery said:

 

104,684,491 - 73% = 28,264,812.57

 

Good work, team.

[AndyK]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

Not if you include preview?

That makes no sense, to compare two days of BO against one.

[aabattery]

Just now, AndyK said:

That makes no sense, to compare two days of BO against one.

 

Previews being folded into the OD is not a new thing

[Brainbug]

Just now, AndyK said:

That makes no sense, to compare two days of BO against one.

 

Yes, but as long as studios insist to include the Thursday preview numbers into Opening Friday, it will be done that way.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Zero percent chance Xmas will be upper 30s with a 28m Friday. You do know it’s dropping a solid 50% on Xmas eve right?  27-33 should be the range for Xmas based on this Friday.

 

Should be able to reach 35+ on Christmas Day and pretty good chance Tuesday 26th is similar.

[Sam]

2 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

 

Good work, team.

Me and Pink gotta make use of our Asian maths somewhere. 

 

So ready for Crazy Rich Asians. 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Should be able to reach 35+ on Christmas Day and pretty good chance Tuesday 26th is similar.

How high of a sat bump are you giving it? Seems to me Xmas eve should be around 15-16m with this Friday number. That’s an awfully huge jump to get to 35+

[JonathanLB]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Zero percent chance Xmas will be upper 30s with a 28m Friday. You do know it’s dropping a solid 50% on Xmas eve right?  27-33 should be the range for Xmas based on this Friday.

HAHA, so Rogue One made $22M on Friday, and it made $32M on the 26th, which was observed as Christmas, the holiday, on Sunday it made $25M, that was Christmas day. So how exactly do you imagine there's a chance it makes LESS on Christmas Day than Friday? Your math is all kinds of fuzzy.

 

Upper 30s, mark my words. You'll be eating crow and I cannot wait.

 

PS: Yes MovieMan, that's how it works, movies have over a 100% jump from Christmas Eve to Christmas Day most of the time, even up to 150% jump. 

Edited December 22, 2017 by JonathanLB

[Brainbug]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

How high of a sat bump are you giving it? Seems to me Xmas eve should be around 15-16m with this Friday number. That’s an awfully huge jump to get to 35+

 

in 2006, most movies had gigantic 120-160% CD bumps.