4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[JonathanLB]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Next wednesday and Thursday should be down a decent amount based on ‘06. Maybe does 20-23m on those days.

Heh, maybe, but I really doubt it. If Christmas hits upper 30s and the 26th is also upper 30s, it's not going to fall to $20M on Wednesday and Thursday. There is zero chance of that. More like upper 20s / $30M.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

14 minutes ago, Noctis said:

I can tell from here...that so many people are going to be misinformed about how numbers work when they see the numbers for this weekend. Can I give you a piece of advice?

 

NO MATTER HOW HARD THE LAST JEDI DROPS THIS WEEEKEND, IT'S GOING TO DROP MINIMALLY NEXT WEEKEND. 

Wonder what the chances are that it increases? Pretty much everything did by a good amount in 2006. Though that comparison isn't looking too great right about now.

[grey ghost]

15 minutes ago, Alli said:

Didn't she defend Depp? i don't really care anymore, but she is not perfect

She basically said people don't know the full story (which is possible) but she can't share certain details and she would understand if people boycotted (which was an admirable thing to say from her position).

 

Hardly a dealbreaker in my book.

[REC]

Still only 6m more (roughly) than RO with some weekdays that were pretty close to RO numbers.  The feeling is that TLJ still tops 700m domestic?

[redfirebird2008]

15 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I know people seem shy to use it, but -59.% Sunday to Monday for Pursuit of Happyness, +67% Friday jump, TLJ had -58% and looks like a larger jump Friday is possible maybe because of a smaller jump Thursday.

 

Look at Pursuit's Friday compared to every day the following week -- basically, whatever TLJ makes Friday, it's likely to meet or exceed every single day from now through next weekend, with the exception of obviously Christmas Eve and NYE.

 

That would be awesome if it follows Pursuit of Happyness. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

[Alli]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

She basically said people don't know the full story (which is possible) but she can't share certain details and she would understand if people boycotted (which was an admirable thing to say from her position).

 

Hardly a dealbreaker in my book.

The fact that she said that was problematic imo. she doesn't know the full story either. she doesn't know Amber's side, just what depp and his lawyers told her. and she chose to believe them.   i'm not saying depp didn't tell her the truth, but she chose to ignore amber. and that sucks

Edited December 22, 2017 by Alli

[Sam]

12 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

120% jump for Coco? Hell yeah

 

2.9M friday could bring a $ 8M this weekend for Coco, a 19% drop [Moana drop 40% last year]

It’s running behind Moana these last few days saddened me a bit. But with percentage of schools out starting to pick up, hopefully Coco can start catching up and close the gap. 

 

210M-220M is the target. 

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, Reyhawk said:

Wonder what the chances are that it increases? Pretty much everything did by a good amount in 2006. Though that comparison isn't looking too great right about now.

 

Thing that makes me a bit hesitant on the 3rd weekend increase is Rogue One dropped 22.5% on 3rd weekend when a boatload of other movies jumped a lot. Much larger numbers make it hard to say for sure what it might do in either direction.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2016&wknd=53&p=.htm

[JonathanLB]

14 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

I honestly really hope you are right.

I don't really no if the 3rd sets of Weekdays will be that strong (New Year's Day aside, as I think that Day has a solid chance at 20+Mio$ hopefully a lot more). What do you think might those weekdays roughly look like all above 10Mio$ or Thursdays and Wednesdays below?

First Weekend: 220 Mio

First Weekdays: 76.6 Mio => 296.6 Mio first week

Second Weekend: 80 Mio => 376.6 Mio

Second Weekdays: 115 Mio => 491.6 Mio (Something like 35 + 35 + 25 + 20, could be higher, could be lower)

Third Weekend: 70 Mio => 561.6 Mio (This is the weekend were I think anything can happen, No new movie releases here, that is an advantage but I don't think that will be enough to compensate for a drop)

Third Weekdays: 45 Mio => 606.6 Mio (Something like 20 + 10 + 8 + 7)

 

Would mean it needs to cross 153.4 more after the first three full weeks.

Rogue one grossed 77 Mio more (so it would need more than double that)

And TFA grossed 166 Mio more but that film came of a higher Weekend (90 Mio $)

 

 

This are just some ideas, and most likely something totally different will happen.

So in other words, let's wait and see 

Really interested in what you think.

 

 

Well as you said, it's very tough to know, but I'm still being given no real reason to believe Christmas and the 26th will be under the $35M each day you have. Remember, Rogue One was kind of looking meh until it hit a MONSTER Christmas day for that point, and it took off that entire second week into "hell yeah, this is what I wanted" territory. 

 

Let's just play it conservatively and say 35-35-28-26 for the weekdays, then is it going to decline on Friday? Fuck no, obviously not. So a 20% bump from $26M next Thursday is $31M+ on Friday. I think there's a slam dunk chance the 3rd weekend is BIGGER than the second weekend, and I don't think it'll be particularly close. NYE is not a bad day at the box office, it's not a great one, but I always make the mistake of thinking NYE = Xmas Eve. Not at all accurate. It's more like a 1/3 decline not a 1/2 decline. NYE was still almost as big as this comparable Friday for Pursuit, so you could still have let's say a $22M Sunday and a $26M Monday. I'm struggling to come up with the math that leads to a 3rd weekend that's NOT bigger than the 2nd, not only because of higher weekdays and holidays but because NYE is not Xmas Eve, so the Sunday to Sunday comp will make it an easy jump.

 

When you see a massive percent drop from weekend 1 to 2 for TLJ, it's not because the movie just tanked. It's literally the calendar. TFA was more consistent in its declines. But as a result, I think TFA will LOSE its third weekend to TLJ, and TLJ will not stop in making up ground from that point forward. I don't know what you guys are talking about "late legs," TFA only disappointed once and that was late. It seemed on track for $975M until the legs fell out late. It was a monster up until the holidays ended, then it dove the weekend following, which is a lot less likely to happen here because that Friday is more like a holiday already. So I see more like a 45-50% decline for TLJ from weekends 3 to 4, not a 55%+ decline. The weekend after that is MLK, if I'm not mistaken, and that will mean a soft decline the next weekend especially 3-day to 4-day.

 

Also your weekdays, January 2 should be a good day still, let's call that $15M, and I think then it's more like $11M, $10M. Not much ahead of TFA, but a few million per day. The 2nd of January is off for many people as well, as previous trends seem to indicate consistently. Then it's dive on the 3rd time. 

 

EDIT: A further reason I believe in no worse than a 50% decline for TLJ from Weekends 3 to 4 is that Sunday is NYE on weekend 3, making it easier for a stronger hold Sunday to Sunday, and since the Fridays are both off for many kids / college kids, the Friday to Friday comp will be a bit less harsh. Granted, I'm not saying 50% isn't still a good solid drop, but it isn't tanking 60% on that weekend just because of the calendar alone preventing that.

Edited December 22, 2017 by JonathanLB

[Noctis]

It's Rowling. She's been the biggest advocate of minorities and freedom in the past decade at least, but she's clearly saying in her speech that she knows more but that it's okay if people boycott the film. That takes respect at the very least.

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, Sam said:

It’s running behind Moana these last few days saddened me a bit. But with percentage of schools out starting to pick up, hopefully Coco can start catching up and close the gap. 

 

210M-220M is the target. 

I was concerned too about the drops this week... but with these weekend numbers, now we know it really is because of the people still in school / work haha

 

I think it will finish with $ 220M too, and $ 800M ww

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, ThePhasmid said:

Fireplace cracking. Stockings hung. Die Hard trilogy and Forrest Gump marathons/re-runs on the TV. Another Star Wars film slaying at the BO. Merry Christmas, y'all.

Merry Christmas to you and yours as well!

And for those who don't celebrate, a very Happy Holidays and an enjoyable season to you, too!:)

 

PS - And if you pull out the Chinese menu to have Peking Duck on Monday night (ala the Christmas Story), consider it the best Christmas dinner ever (and make sure to top it off with homemade cookies and eggnog for dessert:)...nothing like a day off cooking for moms, too:)...

[The Panda]

If I update the numbers I was giving earlier (just accounting for a large Fri jump than expected)

 

Fri: 28.3m (+59%)

Sat: 33.1m (+17%)

Sun: 15.2m (-54%)

3-Day: 76.6m (-65%)

Cume: 373.3m

Mon: 38.9m (+156%)

Tue: 40.8m (+5%)

Wed: 28.2m (-31%)

Thu: 26.8m (-5%)

Fri: 33.5m (+25%)

Sat: 36.9m (+10%)

Sun: 22.9m (-38%)

3-Day: 93.3m (+21.8%)

Cume: 601.3m

Mon: 27.5m (+20%)

Tue: 20.6m (-25%)

Wed: 9.5m (-55%)

Thu: 9m (-5%)

Fri: 18.45m (+105%)

Sat: 25.5m (+38%)

Sun: 17.3m (-32%)

3-Day: 61.3m (-34%)

Cume (coming out of the holidays): 729.2m

 

[Mojoguy]

Jumanji has real breakout potential here, being the second choice for families after TLJ.

After TLJ, it's Jumanji and just PP3 which I think is going to be frontloaded. FF is tanking as will Downsizing too when that comes out.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

8 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Thing that makes me a bit hesitant on the 3rd weekend increase is Rogue One dropped 22.5% on 3rd weekend when a boatload of other movies jumped a lot. Much larger numbers make it hard to say for sure what it might do in either direction.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2016&wknd=53&p=.htm

Very true, probably looking at a RO-like drop at worst though.

[Mojoguy]

Downsizing. Nobody actually cares about this movie, right?

[TalismanRing]

38 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

120% jump for Coco? Hell yeah

 

2.9M friday could bring a $ 8M this weekend for Coco, a 19% drop [Moana drop 40% last year]

Fantastic number even if it screws my games.

[grey ghost]

18 minutes ago, Alli said:

The fact that she said that was problematic imo. she doesn't know the full story either. she doesn't know Amber's side, just what depp and his lawyers told her. and she chose to believe them.   i'm not saying depp didn't tell her the truth, but she chose to ignore amber. and that sucks

I don't think it's that simple.

 

But she did basically say people should boycott if they feel strongly about it.

 

I doubt WB or any lawyers told her to say something like that.

 

I'd suspect they told her the opposite.

[Taruseth]

19 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Well as you said, it's very tough to know, but I'm still being given no real reason to believe Christmas and the 26th will be under the $35M each day you have. Remember, Rogue One was kind of looking meh until it hit a MONSTER Christmas day for that point, and it took off that entire second week into "hell yeah, this is what I wanted" territory. 

 

Let's just play it conservatively and say 35-35-28-26 for the weekdays, then is it going to decline on Friday? Fuck no, obviously not. So a 20% bump from $26M next Thursday is $31M+ on Friday. I think there's a slam dunk chance the 3rd weekend is BIGGER than the second weekend, and I don't think it'll be particularly close. NYE is not a bad day at the box office, it's not a great one, but I always make the mistake of thinking NYE = Xmas Eve. Not at all accurate. It's more like a 1/3 decline not a 1/2 decline. NYE was still almost as big as this comparable Friday for Pursuit, so you could still have let's say a $22M Sunday and a $26M Monday. I'm struggling to come up with the math that leads to a 3rd weekend that's NOT bigger than the 2nd, not only because of higher weekdays and holidays but because NYE is not Xmas Eve, so the Sunday to Sunday comp will make it an easy jump.

 

When you see a massive percent drop from weekend 1 to 2 for TLJ, it's not because the movie just tanked. It's literally the calendar. TFA was more consistent in its declines. But as a result, I think TFA will LOSE its third weekend to TLJ, and TLJ will not stop in making up ground from that point forward. I don't know what you guys are talking about "late legs," TFA only disappointed once and that was late. It seemed on track for $975M until the legs fell out late. It was a monster up until the holidays ended, then it dove the weekend following, which is a lot less likely to happen here because that Friday is more like a holiday already. So I see more like a 45-50% decline for TLJ from weekends 3 to 4, not a 55%+ decline. The weekend after that is MLK, if I'm not mistaken, and that will mean a soft decline the next weekend especially 3-day to 4-day.

 

Also your weekdays, January 2 should be a good day still, let's call that $15M, and I think then it's more like $11M, $10M. Not much ahead of TFA, but a few million per day. The 2nd of January is off for many people as well, as previous trends seem to indicate consistently. Then it's dive on the 3rd time. 

 

EDIT: A further reason I believe in no worse than a 50% decline for TLJ from Weekends 3 to 4 is that Sunday is NYE on weekend 3, making it easier for a stronger hold Sunday to Sunday, and since the Fridays are both off for many kids / college kids, the Friday to Friday comp will be a bit less harsh. Granted, I'm not saying 50% isn't still a good solid drop, but it isn't tanking 60% on that weekend just because of the calendar alone preventing that.

Thanks, Really looking forward to how the following weeks turn out to be.

And I really hope that TLJ will be able to have that high grosses all trough out the holidays.

Edited December 22, 2017 by Taruseth

[JonathanLB]

As with anything that involves people getting off their ass to go do something, I'm not going to put my neck out for predicting other people's behavior and act like something that hasn't happened yet couldn't go either way. That's what is going to get a lot of people here in trouble later today when Rth gives his actual number

 

That being said, I think sometimes -- this isn't meant in a mean way, it's just numbers, box office, nerdy stuff, this is fun! -- people get a little bit hung up on the math and not quite taking a step back to look at a bigger, common sense picture. People here seriously thought TLJ would make $60M this weekend...? I mean it made $22M Monday, so it would magically make less than 3x a Monday? You have to think what you're saying, and whether that makes logical sense.

 

Again with someone saying $20M next Wednesday, please think about what you're saying. On a day where everyone is off, the movie is going to make less than it did on its first Monday and barely more than it did any day this week, when most people were in school. If the school situation doesn't matter, please tell me and explain in clear English pretending I'm a 6-year-old who is incredibly inept why TFA made more money its first week when everyone was off, and why Rogue One made more money its second week than its first during the week? Surely you can't be telling me the school and work situation doesn't matter, but magically Rogue One increased for no understandable reason even though movies don't "just increase" unless they're Titanic (hehe). Math is only as useful as the person using the math. Ergo, if you don't understand the REASONS for why the math applies, you cannot apply it correctly.

 

Go A to B to C to D and show me what it looks like for the 3rd weekend to fall below the 2nd weekend this time. Here is how silly you have to make it:

 

Let's just "assume" Friday, for the sake of argument. $28M.

 

You cannot decrease on Saturday. You could get a small increase, to $32M. 

Now you can go $16M Sunday.

I don't know in what world Christmas Day is going to be less than Saturday, so let's be super pessimistic and say $32M for Christmas Day.

Let's be negative again and say $30M for the 26th.

Now $24M for Wednesday

$21M for Thursday.

A small increase on Friday to $26M.

 

That is the ONLY way you could fudge next Friday to below this one. It's nearly impossible and requires a serious fucking stretch of the imagination.

 

PS: EVEN THAT stretch doesn't put next Sunday below this Sunday, by the way. So it likely doesn't put next weekend below this one, either, as you'd be expecting another equally small (15%) Saturday increase with my math above. You almost cannot make it work, no matter how hard you try.

 

Edited December 22, 2017 by JonathanLB