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grim22

4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Rthmessiah,

J 19, PP3 6.7, TGS 5.8

TLJ 27m

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Posted by Rthmessiah,

TLJ 28. 2, J 17,PP3 7.6,TGS 5.3
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

You have to look at it from the long game perspective, like Disney is with the franchise. A 3x multi in December is certainly indicative that the WOM wasn't great. Disney would be stupid to just ignore that going forward. Solo already had its own set of issues that no SW film has ever had, so if that were to actually underpeform at the box office, or even fail to turn a profit, we then have an SW film with mixed reception and one that actually did lackluster numbers at the box office back to back. Now SW fatigue becomes a real concern for Disney, since there's no end in sight at the moment to their annual release strategy. As someone already said, often times  at the box office the next movie will pay for the sins of the last, so that's not good going into IX. Maybe it has a lower OW than anyone expects, in which case it could not afford the same kind of reception TLJ gets and still make it out with a massive profit like TLJ will. It would make a profit, but where would the franchise be at going forward from there? If IX also didn't have great WOM, the franchise would officially be in a true fatigue and now that the main episodes are over there's nothing to stop the Anthology ones from actually bombing if the annual release continues.

 

So, to make a long story short, Disney has to take measures to ensure the above scenario simply doesn't happen. If they don't, it's not an impossible reality. 

We had similar discussions over R1 IIRC.  I'll say again what I said then.

 

If I marched to Bob Iger's office right now and guaranteed him that every last 'off-year' SW film would do between 250m to 425m domestic (in 2018 dollars) and that all trilogy/saga films will do 550m to 700m domestic (again in 2018 dollars) for the next 10 to 15 years, he would RUN to accept that bargain.  Yes,  that would mean the occasional 'stinker' of 'only' 250m (2018 DOM). That would be offset by all of the 350m+ ones (ditto).

 

Don't let the immense amount of money that TFA blind you to just how great it is to get 300+ DOM movie every time one rolls one out.

 

660 DOM is not going to be a 'bad' sign for a franchise for probably 25 years

300 DOM is not going to be a 'bad' sign for a franchise for at least 5 to 10 years*.

 

* The critical reaction to BvS was the warning sign, not the gross.  And even there, Suicide Squad passed 300m DOM when it wasn't expected to, and we all know about Wonder Woman.

 

===

 

I'll set aside all this wishcasting for Solo to suck in this thread since we don't even have a hint at the quality of the film and the barest whispers of tone/style.

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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I still don't know why some think a 3-3.2x multi would just be no big deal as far as WOM goes? Do you see any of the top 20 December OWs with a sub 3.4x? You have to find an early December horror sequel to get down to 3x (Scream 2). And a movie that Christian organizations boycotted en masse to get lower than that (The Golden Compass). If TLJ finishes under 700, that just isn't good when it comes to the reception and there will be some kind of effect felt on the franchise going forward if Disney ignores the way it was received. 

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Rorschach Summer Tentpole

Rorschach

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21 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

I think what TLJ is currently making at the box office is what TFA should've been making as well if not for the whole SW starvation from people which helped TFA reached where it did at the BO. I don't think the fan backlash has anything to do with it.

I agree that backlash has nothing to do with the decline. TLJ was gonna decline from TFA regardless. If it makes $650 million DOM then Disney should be happy with themselves. No reason to be disappointed. 

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I still don't know why some think a 3-3.2x multi would just be no big deal as far as WOM goes? Do you see any of the top 20 December OWs with a sub 3.4x? You have to find an early December horror sequel to get down to 3x (Scream 2). And a movie that Christian organizations boycotted en masse to get lower than that (The Golden Compass). If TLJ finishes under 700, that just isn't good when it comes to the reception and there will be some kind of effect felt on the franchise going forward if Disney ignores the way it was received. 

 

It’s a 220 opening. All bets are off for legs at that point. 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I still don't know why some think a 3-3.2x multi would just be no big deal as far as WOM goes? Do you see any of the top 20 December OWs with a sub 3.4x? You have to find an early December horror sequel to get down to 3x (Scream 2). And a movie that Christian organizations boycotted en masse to get lower than that (The Golden Compass). If TLJ finishes under 700, that just isn't good when it comes to the reception and there will be some kind of effect felt on the franchise going forward if Disney ignores the way it was received. 

Because multiplier isn't everything.  I think 'only' getting a 3x multiplier off a 220 OW is fantastic.

 

Or do I really have to reopen all of the debates over CA:CW and why it's box office run wasn't bad after all.  Coz I will, and I won't feel ashamed in the slightest. :P

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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Just now, Porthos said:

Because multiplier isn't everything.  I think 'only' getting a 3x multiplier off a 220 OW is fantastic.

 

Or do I really have to reopen all of the debates over CA:CW and why it's box office wasn't bad after all.  Coz I will, and I won't feel ashamed in the slightest. :P

I can't say for sure that you were one of the ones saying that it was virtually impossible for it to only get a 3x in December last weekend, but plenty of people were. Hell, even I was. The fact that now that's being made to not sound like a big deal because of the OW size is telling.

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BXT Straight-to-DVD

BXT

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6 minutes ago, DARth DAR said:

Let's think about this just using the domestic gross of the franchise since Disney ruined childhoods er took over

 

TFA 936

RO 532

TLJ 660(worst case)

 

2.1 billion in just the US alone 

 

Giving just a shade over 700 million average.    Yep there's definitely trouble

 

They paid $4 billion for the franchise. Each movie also has a negative cost of $450-500 million. Things aren't bad but Disney has to be careful how they proceed with the SW franchise. What worked for Marvel may not work here in this case.

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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Jurassic World and Avengers both had incredible WOM with the general audience. Both opened over $200m and “struggled” to reach a 3.0 multiplier. Last Jedi is doing very well.

 

Force Awakens was the biggest ticket seller since Titanic. It’s a freak level event and should not be held against Last Jedi’s performance. 

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