New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, kswiston said:

Deadline updated: http://deadline.com/2017/12/last-jedi-jumanji-new-years-weekend-box-office-2018-1202233711/

 

Industry estimates for the weekend of Dec. 29-31, 2017:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 4,232 theaters (0)/ $19.1M (-23%) Fri/ 3-day: $55M  (-23%)/4-day: $72.3M Total:$537M/ Wk 3
2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle  (SONY), 3,765 theaters (0) / $17.4M Fri (+44%)/3-day: $50.1M (+38%)/4-day: $66.3M/Total:$185.6M/ Wk 2
3. Pitch Perfect 3  (UNI), 3,468 theaters (+21)/ $6.6M (-38%) Fri/3-day: $18.2M(-9%)/4-day: $23.4M/Total: $69.9M/ Wk 2
4. The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 3,316 theaters (+310) / $5.3M (+71%) Fri /3-day: $15.4M (+75%)/4-day $20.4M/Total: $54M/Wk 2
5. Ferdinand  (FOX), 3,337 theaters (-293) / $4.7M (+74%)Fri /3-day: $12.8M(+75%)/4-day: $16.9M/Total: $59M/ Wk 3
6. Coco(DIS), 2,104 theaters (-7) / $2.9M (+61%) Fri/3-day: $7.6M (+41%)/4-day:$9.9M/Total: $182.3M / Wk 6
7. Darkest Hour (FOC), 943 theaters (+137)/ $1.8M Fri (+29%)/3-day: $5.5M(+41%)/ 4-day: $7.3M/ Total: $19.9M/ Wk 6
8. All The Money in the World (Sony) 2,074 theaters (+6)/ $1.75M Fri/3-day:$5.2M/4-day: $6.9M/Total: $14.1M/Wk 1
9. Downsizing  (PAR), 2,664 theaters (-4)/ $1.6M Fri (-20%) /3-day: $5M (+2%)/ 4-day: $6.7M/Total: $19.1M/ Wk 2
10. Wonder (LG), 1,193 theaters (+63) / $1.3M Fri (+63%) /3-day: $3.7M (+85%)/4-day: $4.8M /Total: $123.1M/ Wk 7
11. The Shape of Water  (FSL), 756 theaters (+26)  / $1.1m Fri (0%) /3-day: $3.6M(+18%)/4-day: $4.7M/Total: $16.8M/Wk 5
12. Father Figures (ALC/WB), 2,902 theaters (0)/ $1.1M Fri (-20%) /3-day: $3.3M(+2%)/ 4-day: $4.4M/ Total: $13.4M/ Wk 2
13. Molly’s Game (STX) 271 theaters/$720K Fri/3-day: $2.2m/4-day: $3M/Total: $5.9M/ Wk 1

Damn - TLJ within $2M of Jumanji and under $20M (and Jumanji with a huge increase)...called it...again:)...maybe I should stay out of predicting and just handle projecting, b/c I also was awful at predicting both these movies BO totals pre-open... 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Jumanji is one of the stories of the year.  There were some of us who thought it would do well.  I'm not sure if anyone thought it might have a shot at 300 million.  I don't think it will hit that amount, but it sure has a shot at 225, maybe even 250.  

 

A shot at 225? Um it will be well past that after next weekend. Gonna be around 190 after the 4 day. 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Jumanji is one of the stories of the year.  There were some of us who thought it would do well.  I'm not sure if anyone thought it might have a shot at 300 million.  I don't think it will hit that amount, but it sure has a shot at 225, maybe even 250.  

 

The Last Jedi is just underwhelming and yet it will make about 625-650.  Kind of funny that a 600 million dollar film will be considered a disappointment.  

 

Pitch Perfect 3 looks like it has a shot at 100 million.

 

The Greatest Showman is unfortunately doing well also.

 

Father Figures looks like it could do 20 million.  Huge Success (sarcasm)

 

 

I stand by my point that Jumanji has the advantage of beeing virtually the only other choice for a holiday movie for many people besides TLJ. The November releases are now relatively old, PP3 targets female teens, Greatest Showman targets...someone, but definetly isnt something the GA would flock to and Downsizing/Father Figures looks bad and unappealing.

 

Any other time of the year, and Jumanji woudnt come close to 300M.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

Why is this unfortu-

 

Ohhhhhh.

 

I've gotten on my soapbox in the past.  I won't continue doing so.  But the Greatest Showman is lies and cotton candy and rainbows.  There's an ugly truth to the circus, especially Ringling Brothers.  And that's all I've got to say about that.

[redfirebird2008]

Star Wars providing another data point for big December movies in the future. Bottom line is we cannot rely on the older releases like 2006.

 

Last year, the 2011 daily percentages were not very helpful in projecting Rogue One either. The numbers are so much larger that it throws off any comparison with the past.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

A shot at 225? Um it will be well past that after next weekend. Gonna be around 190 after the 4 day. 

 

Awesome.  Then hopefully it heads to 300.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Star Wars providing another data point for big December movies in the future. Bottom line is we cannot rely on the older releases like 2006.

 

Last year, the 2011 daily percentages were not very helpful in projecting Rogue One either. The numbers are so much larger that it throws off any comparison with the past.

 

Times change.

[TwoMisfits]

5 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

why are they choosing Jumanji over Star Wars, both qualify as family films?

See my post on page #1 of this thread:)...crowd-pleasing vs divisive makes it an easy call...

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Star Wars providing another data point for big December movies in the future. Bottom line is we cannot rely on the older releases like 2006.

 

Last year, the 2011 daily percentages were not very helpful in projecting Rogue One either. The numbers are so much larger that it throws off any comparison with the past.

Obviously, the box office landscape has changed drastically since both of those years (especially 2006).

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

I stand by my point that Jumanji has the advantage of beeing virtually the only other choice for a holiday movie for many people besides TLJ. The November releases are now relatively old, PP3 targets female teens, Greatest Showman targets...someone, but definetly isnt something the GA would flock to and Downsizing/Father Figures looks bad and unappealing.

 

Any other time of the year, and Jumanji woudnt come close to 300M.

 

But this is what those of us who thought it would do well were saying.  It is perfect timing and that is part of the battle that studios face when releasing a film.  So it's not an indictment of the film to say that the timing is perfect, kudos to Sony for securing the December release date.

[filmlover]

Wasn't Jumanji supposed to open in July at one point?

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Obviously, the box office landscape has changed drastically since both of those years (especially 2006).

 

It’s not just that. The larger numbers are the main issue. In 2016 a bunch of movies increased huge on 3rd weekend and Rogue One dropped 22%. We’re watching same thing happen again this year. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

See my post on page #1 of this thread:)...crowd-pleasing vs divisive makes it an easy call...

 

Jumanji is light

Fun

Entertaining

Has two enormous stars that bring in a diverse audience

Very funny

Jumanji name

Great release date

 

TLJ is Star Wars

But the wom is divisive

Long ass run time

 

[MovieMan89]

Jumanji is outgrossing Sing in dailies now and only a couple mil behind its total through the same point. Should be well ahead of it by Monday with a significantly bigger 4 day.  That finished with 270. I’d say that’s the floor for Jumanji now. 

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

I've gotten on my soapbox in the past.  I won't continue doing so.  But the Greatest Showman is lies and cotton candy and rainbows.  There's an ugly truth to the circus, especially Ringling Brothers.  And that's all I've got to say about that.

 

I’m sure it is...but come on, I’m there to watch a light and fun musical, not to learn the horrible truth behind the circus.  If I wanted to do that, I’d stay at home at look at articles about it.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Jumanji is outgrossing Sing in dailies now and only a couple mil behind its total through the same point. Should be well ahead of it by Monday with a significantly bigger 4 day.  That finished with 270. I’d say that’s the floor for Jumanji now. 

 

Jumanji is so much fun, I'd love to see it hit 300 million.

[boomboom234]

10 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

I just hope they go back to what we    I expect of Star Wars. 

I wish I liked it more I was so excited 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

I’m sure it is...but come on, I’m there to watch a light and fun musical, not to learn the horrible truth behind the circus.  If I wanted to do that, I’d stay at home at look at articles about it.

 

Well, I can't go watch a film about the circus and look at it any other way except for the same way you would look at a film about the Holocaust which shows the Jews playing beach volleyball in a concentration camp.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Well, I can't go watch a film about the circus and look at it any other way except for the same way you would look at a film about the Holocaust which shows the Jews playing beach volleyball in a concentration camp.

 

That’s kind of a ridiculous comparison, but whatever.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Well, I can't go watch a film about the circus and look at it any other way except for the same way you would look at a film about the Holocaust which shows the Jews playing beach volleyball in a concentration camp.