New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[aabattery]

46 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

http://birthmoviesdeath.com/2017/12/29/bright-and-its-hypothetical-opening-weekend-box-office

 

Wtf?

 

I imagine some of more knowledgeable here will have fun with some of the extrapolations made in this article. Apologies if this was already posted and/or discussed here.

 

Not gonna go too much into it but the idea that everyone who watched it would've actually gone and seen it in theatres is... misguided to say the least. I know I wouldn't have gotten to it if I'd had to actually leave the house to watch it. 

 

Not like it matters for Netflix, anyway. I imagine Bright did its job in keeping subscribers happy. 

[McNerdy]

I first thought the toxic WOM for TLJ was only an internet thing amongst fanatics, but it seems to be true around me IRL as well :/. For whatever reason some people don't seem to like it at all.

[JohnnyGossamer]

6 minutes ago, McNerdy said:

I first thought the toxic WOM for TLJ was only an internet thing amongst fanatics, but it seems to be true around me IRL as well :/. For whatever reason some people don't seem to like it at all.

Hmm. I'd say WOM is mixed with the GA. Toxic is too extreme.

[Heretic]

WTF at Jumanji, definitely the surprise of the year.

[MinaTakla]

I want Jumanji to beat TLJ in one of its dailies ASAP.

Loved that movie and as for TLJ...meh. 

[wildphantom]

11 hours ago, hw64 said:

Yeah but that's in legitimate theatres that have legitimate theatrical productions, not cinemas that show blockbuster films. In an era of highly commercialized franchise-driven cinema, the use of the word "matinees" has always felt extremely out of place, at least to me.

Fair enough. 

In my circle the phrase “I’ll catch a matinee” referring to movies is used all the time. 

Maybe it’s where I’m from. The UK is a pretty diverse place, despite it being a little island as you well know. 

[junkshop36]

21 minutes ago, McNerdy said:

I first thought the toxic WOM for TLJ was only an internet thing amongst fanatics, but it seems to be true around me IRL as well :/. For whatever reason some people don't seem to like it at all.

 

It doesn’t have TOXIC WOM. 

 

Split/mixed WOM sure but not toxic. In fact I think there are slightly more people who liked/loved it than didn’t, but there’s been enough who weren’t happy with what RJ did to keep it from doing as well as it could have. 

[McNerdy]

Jeah, I meant mixed WOM, sorry.

[AndyK]

1 minute ago, junkshop36 said:

 

It doesn’t have TOXIC WOM. 

 

Split/mixed WOM sure but not toxic. In fact I think there are slightly more people who liked/loved it than didn’t, but there’s been enough who weren’t happy with what RJ did to keep it from doing as well as it could have. 

I think its done as well as it could have.

 

TFA numbers were a one off driven by nostalgia.

[the beast]

Given that Jumanji is heading for $185m+ for Christmas Day, With a possible $55m+ International weekend not including New Years Day, This could approach $360m+ plus worldwide for New Years Day

Edited December 30, 2017 by the beast

[the beast]

It Seems that The Last Jedi will hit around the $1.05B mark by Sunday and around $1.09B by Monday

[Brainbug]

53 minutes ago, estebanJ said:

 

I'd put more emphasis on the "huge hit nonetheless" part than the "Ouch" part. TLJ is surging past $500m DOM, and as you imply $600m is just about a given, and it is still beating darling Jumanji every day. That's very impressive regardless of what came before. E.g., in 1980, Empire Strikes Back did "only" 2/3 of the DOM box office of Star Wars, but nobody called it a disappointment. When the first film is out-of-this-world, it's unrealistic to expect the sequel to be in the same league.

 

I mean, if Avatar 2 does 2 Billion WW, will we say "ouch" because it's $700m less than what Avatar did? I hope not. 

 

 

 

@IronJimbo

[IronJimbo]

12 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

@IronJimbo

Less than 1.8b is a disaster

1.8b to 2.1b is an extreme underpeformance.

2.1b to 2.4b is far less than expected

2.4b to 2.78b is disappointing

2.78b to 3b is ok

3b to 3.3b is expected

3.3b to 3.7b is great

3.7b to 4b is fanastic

4b.. pack your bags honey we are off to Pandora

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by IronJimbo

[junkshop36]

25 minutes ago, AndyK said:

I think its done as well as it could have.

 

TFA numbers were a one off driven by nostalgia.

 

I never expected it to do TFA numbers, but I think the higher than expected negative reactions have kept it from doing as well as it could have after a 220m OW. 

 

If the general WOM was just on par with even RO it could have done 700+; fairly easily actually. 

 

 

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

2.1b to 2.4b is solid

2.4b to 2.78b is great

FTFY

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Less than 1.8b is a disaster

1.8b to 2.1b is an extreme underpeformance.

2.1b to 2.4b is far less than expected

2.4b to 2.78b is disappointing

2.78b to 3b is ok

3b to 3.3b is expected

3.3b to 3.7b is great

3.7b to 4b is fanastic

4b.. pack your bags honey we are off to Pandora

 

 

I...i never thought i would come across someone who seriously believes, matching the gross from the highest-grossing film of all time would be disappointing...yet, here we are.

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I...i never thought i would come across someone who seriously believes, matching the gross from the highest-grossing film of all time would be disappointing...yet, here we are.

James Cameron's sequel to the highest grossing film of all time, which was made by James Cameron.

 

People on here try using trends from other hollywood films, I'm telling you they just don't apply here.

[Krissykins]

54 minutes ago, Heretic said:

WTF at Jumanji, definitely the surprise of the year.

Um..... IT and Get Out say hi. 

[McNerdy]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

James Cameron's sequel to the highest grossing film of all time, which was made by James Cameron.

 

People on here try using trends from other hollywood films, I'm telling you they just don't apply here.

I really hope Avatar 2 will be to Avatar like terminator 2 or Aliens were to terminator and Alien with respect to both reception and box-office. If there's anyone who can do it, then it's definitely Cameron.

[Taruseth]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

James Cameron's sequel to the highest grossing film of all time, which was made by James Cameron.

 

People on here try using trends from other hollywood films, I'm telling you they just don't apply here.

It's Avatar, honestly those characters weren't memorable.