New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[La Binoche]

Just now, Ryan Reynolds said:

Ghostbusters 2016 was most anticipated comedy of 2016, might not mean much

Ghostbusters would have flopped regardless of gender. It's a great and beloved movie, but very much of its time. It would have flopped with a bunch of new male actors, too. 

[WrathOfHan]

Doing some forecasting with the 4 days for the non-main 2:

 

PP3:

Remainder of this week: 4.1M (74.1M Total)

Jan 5: 7.6M (2M weekdays, 83.7M Total)

Jan 12: 3.5M (1.6M weekdays, 88.8M Total)

Jan 19: 1.6M (500k weekdays, 90.9M Total)

Jan 26: 700k (200k weekdays, 91.8M Total)

Final Total: 94M (4.72x)

 

Ultimately, I don't think there'll be enough cash for 100M.

 

Showman:

Remainder of this week: 5.4M (60.2M Total)

Jan 5: 10.1M (2.4M weekdays, 72.7M Total)

Jan 12: 7M (3.4M weekdays, 83.1M Total)

Jan 19: 5M (1.8M weekdays, 89.9M Total)

Jan 26: 3.7M (1.3M weekdays, 94.9M Total)

Feb 2: 1.9M (700k weekdays, 97.5M Total)

Final Total: 100M (7.46x from 5 day)

 

Fairly confident this can hit 100M now. What a nice surprise!

 

Molly's Game:

 

Remainder of this week: 1M (6.9M Total)

Jan 5: 5.5M (2.2M weekdays, 14.6M Total)

Jan 12: 4.1M (2.3M weekdays, 21M Total)

Jan 19: 3.2M (1.3M weekdays, 25.5M Total)

Jan 26: 2.3M (900k weekdays, 28.7M Total)

Feb 2: 1.4M (500k weekdays, 30.6M Total)

Final Total: 33M 

 

If the TC gets bumped to 2k, 40M is on the table.

[Mojoguy]

I really hope Jumanji can hit 18m this Friday. That would be so sweet.

[Ryan Reynolds]

7 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Ghostbusters would have flopped regardless of gender. It's a great and beloved movie, but very much of its time. It would have flopped with a bunch of new male actors, too. 

not necessarily, people would line up for pass the torch rebootquel, no matter of gender

Edited December 30, 2017 by Ryan Reynolds

[Fancyarcher]

3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I really hope Jumanji can hit 18m this Friday. That would be so sweet.

Given the kind of increases Jumanji's been getting, it wouldn't surprise me if the afternoon actual for it was much higher, and was closer to 18m. 

Edited December 30, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Ghostbusters would have flopped regardless of gender. It's a great and beloved movie, but very much of its time. It would have flopped with a bunch of new male actors, too. 

should have starred Hart, DJ, Hill, Tatum. GB meets JS > MIB meets JS.

[Ryan Reynolds]

21 minutes ago, a2knet said:

should have starred Hart, DJ, Hill, Tatum. GB meets JS > MIB meets JS.

since Sony maybe Charlie's Angels meets JS, to get some ladies

[kswiston]

Deadline updated: http://deadline.com/2017/12/last-jedi-jumanji-new-years-weekend-box-office-2018-1202233711/

 

Industry estimates for the weekend of Dec. 29-31, 2017:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 4,232 theaters (0)/ $19.1M (-23%) Fri/ 3-day: $55M  (-23%)/4-day: $72.3M Total:$537M/ Wk 3
2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle  (SONY), 3,765 theaters (0) / $17.4M Fri (+44%)/3-day: $50.1M (+38%)/4-day: $66.3M/Total:$185.6M/ Wk 2
3. Pitch Perfect 3  (UNI), 3,468 theaters (+21)/ $6.6M (-38%) Fri/3-day: $18.2M(-9%)/4-day: $23.4M/Total: $69.9M/ Wk 2
4. The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 3,316 theaters (+310) / $5.3M (+71%) Fri /3-day: $15.4M (+75%)/4-day $20.4M/Total: $54M/Wk 2
5. Ferdinand  (FOX), 3,337 theaters (-293) / $4.7M (+74%)Fri /3-day: $12.8M(+75%)/4-day: $16.9M/Total: $59M/ Wk 3
6. Coco(DIS), 2,104 theaters (-7) / $2.9M (+61%) Fri/3-day: $7.6M (+41%)/4-day:$9.9M/Total: $182.3M / Wk 6
7. Darkest Hour (FOC), 943 theaters (+137)/ $1.8M Fri (+29%)/3-day: $5.5M(+41%)/ 4-day: $7.3M/ Total: $19.9M/ Wk 6
8. All The Money in the World (Sony) 2,074 theaters (+6)/ $1.75M Fri/3-day:$5.2M/4-day: $6.9M/Total: $14.1M/Wk 1
9. Downsizing  (PAR), 2,664 theaters (-4)/ $1.6M Fri (-20%) /3-day: $5M (+2%)/ 4-day: $6.7M/Total: $19.1M/ Wk 2
10. Wonder (LG), 1,193 theaters (+63) / $1.3M Fri (+63%) /3-day: $3.7M (+85%)/4-day: $4.8M /Total: $123.1M/ Wk 7
11. The Shape of Water  (FSL), 756 theaters (+26)  / $1.1m Fri (0%) /3-day: $3.6M(+18%)/4-day: $4.7M/Total: $16.8M/Wk 5
12. Father Figures (ALC/WB), 2,902 theaters (0)/ $1.1M Fri (-20%) /3-day: $3.3M(+2%)/ 4-day: $4.4M/ Total: $13.4M/ Wk 2
13. Molly’s Game (STX) 271 theaters/$720K Fri/3-day: $2.2m/4-day: $3M/Total: $5.9M/ Wk 1

[Rebeccas]

Overprojected again 

[aabattery]

[Ryan Reynolds]

lol, how do decline on a Friday? Family audiences choosing crowd pleasing Jumanji?

Edited December 30, 2017 by Ryan Reynolds

[Mojoguy]

So the already low TLJ estimates were actually over estimated?

[tonytr87]

1 hour ago, La Binoche said:

I'm curious to see how The Post does in wide release - it will tell us if Meryl Streep's career and brand have been tarnished by recent events. Will the #SheKnew accusations (apparently it's her fault that actresses agreed to take meetings in Harvey Weinstein's bed) negatively affect her career? 

Not sure if you're being sarcastic but these accusations are basically completed unfounded. Also, it's nothing but a niche discussion amongst Film Twitter people i.e. not real world moviegoers. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

[Porthos]

At least it's up from the initial 19.0 estimate? 

 

Spoiler

Yeah, I ain't buying it either.

 

[KP1025]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

At least it's up from the initial 19.0 estimate? 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Yeah, I ain't buying it either.

 

 

I still remember a bunch of people calling Deadline idiots for that estimate 

[a2k]

hmm...with 17.4 vs 19.1, JUM taking Monday seems possible but won't be easy. TLJ Sat/Sun have been good both the weekends so far.

 

Last weekend JUM had a better Sat jump (19% vs 17.8%) and a tad better hold on Sun (39% vs 39.6%) than TLJ.

 

TLJ

19.10

23.70 (+24%)

16.35 (-31%)

18.80 (+15%)

= 77.95 / 59.15

 

JUM

17.40

21.90 (+26%)*

15.35 (-30%)

18.40 (+20%)

= 73.05 / 54.65

 

Gave better holds to JUM but still ended a bit behind TLJ Monday. But unless Friday comes in higher for TLJ the Monday should be very close.

 

edit:

*In 2006 Night at the Museum, Charlotte's Web and Happy Feet were the worst performing on Sat. So my Sat bump for JUM could be pretty bogus. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-12-30&p=.htm 

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by a2knet

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

I still remember a bunch of people calling Deadline idiots for that estimate 

To be fair, we do that every week. 

[BadAtGender]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

2014: American Sniper made the vast majority of its money in 2015. (It passed Mockingjay Pt 1 on March 9, 2015, FTR)

 

Also, MJ1 wasn't the leader at the end of the year. GotG was. MJ1 passed it... probably on January 21, 2015. (The daily tracking for GotG ended in October, but it also closed its run on January 22. MJ1 was ahead of GotG's final total on the 21st, and it's unlikely it was ahead on the 20th.) So, even if we discount American Sniper as not exactly a 2014 release, it still wouldn't have met the criteria.

 

 

In 2012, The Avengers was both the in-year and yearly leader. The same was true in 2011, with HP:DH2.

 

2010, though is a curious year. The yearly leader was Toy Story 3, which, yes, earned all its money within the year and was never eclipsed by a later release. But the in-year leader was... Avatar, which earned the bulk of its money in the year. It actually finished 2009 in fifth place for the year, behind TF2, HP6, Up, and New Moon.

 

From 2004-2008, the in-year leader was the final victor.

 

2003 had RotK, which finished the year in 4th place, but ultimately pulled ahead of Finding Nemo, PotC, and The Matrix Reloaded. 2003 was a pretty hefty year, all told.

 

And then it's back all the way to 1997 & 1998, which was when Titanic was the overall leader the first year, and the in-year leader the second. (In fact, the $488m it earned in 1998 was easily the most any movie had earned in a single run. (Star Wars had broken $400m with its special edition re-release in early '97, but it was still far behind.) Titanic finished '97 in 7th place, and even that only barely, as it was less than half a million ahead of Face/Off. So the fun situation with Avatar was even more so. Though Titanic could have stopped its run on February 7 and it would have ended up the '98 in-year leader.

 

In '95, Toy Story finished up the year in 3rd. It would eventually pass Apollo 13 and Batman Forever. 

 

'94 was very interesting. The in-year leader (The Lion King) was eventually eclipsed, but it was done not by a holiday release, but by Forrest Gump. Both films had pretty solid '95 performances, with TLK's pop culture and pseudo-re-release adding another 13.5m. But Forrest Gump added $35m and the eventual win.

 

And 1992 might have the biggest jump from end-of-year placement to eventual yearly victory. Aladdin finished the year just shy of $100m, good enough only for 8th place. And Home Alone 2, which ended up in 2nd, $44m behind Aladdin, was in 4th.

 

Home Alone 2 was a bigger hit than I realized.

[lilmac]

 Each second Star Wars chapter made about 70% the gross of its predecessor. TLJ is tracking to do that very same thing (~$655m) and will likely surpass that number!