Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[Barnack]

17 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

So movies from streaming companies must have a theater release to be eligible, right ?

 

Has for now yes, has of now the company is not taking into account, you must release in theater the first day the movie is available to the wide public and stay a certain amount of time in enough paying theater in a county of Los angeles and you are in (if you are long enough to be a feature film)

 

Nothing more than that.

[filmlover]

I'm wondering if the surprise success of Crazy Rich Asians is gonna translate to any kind of Oscar love. Michelle Yeoh in Supporting Actress, maybe? She's certainly got the perfect clip ("I know this much: you will never be enough.").

[Ethan Hunt]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

I'm wondering if the surprise success of Crazy Rich Asians is gonna translate to any kind of Oscar love. Michelle Yeoh in Supporting Actress, maybe? She's certainly got the perfect clip ("I know this much: you will never be enough.").

It'll get a best popular film nom. Probs it 

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Ethan Hunt said:

It'll get a best popular film nom. Probs it 

I'm still pretending that category isn't actually a thing lol.

[Cmasterclay]

Doing a real quick pre-festival prediction for the big ones (fuck a popular film category)

 

Best Picture

Roma (Winner)

The Favourite

If Beale Street Could Talk

First Mayne

Green Book

The Frontrunner

Black Kklansman

Black Panther

A Star Is Born

 

Best DIrector

Alfonso Cuaron (Winner)

Barry Jenkins

Damien Chazelle

Spike Lee

Yorgos

 

Best Actor

Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (Winner)

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Bourne

Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back

Ryan Gosling, First Man

 

Best Actress

Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (Winner)

Julia Roberts, Ben is Back

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Glenn Close, the Wife

Toni Collette, Hereditary 

 

Best Supporting Actor

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (Winner) - could switch categories and put Ali here and Viggo in that spot in Best Actor

Richard Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Michael B Jordan, Black Panther

Daniel Kayuula, Widows

 

Best Supporting Actress

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (Winner)

Claire Foy, First Man

Vera Famiga, The Front Runner

Rachel Weisz, the Favourite

Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

 

 

[CoolioD1]

i'll also do the early predictions we can laugh at in four months (or in two weeks after all the festivals)

 

Picture:

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

Cheney/Backseat/whatever it's called

The Favourite

First Man

Roma

A Star is Born

 

Director

Spike Lee

Yorgos Lanthimos

Damien Chazelle

Alfonso Cuaron

Orson Welles (ngng pick)

 

Actor:

Christian Bale, Cheney

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Ryan Gosling, First Man

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

 

Actress:

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins

Glenn Close, The Wife

Viola Davis, Widows

Lady Gaga. A Star Is Born

whichever lady from The Favourite is the lead idk

 

Supporting Actor:

Adam Driver, Blackkklansman

Timothee Chalamet, 😐

Stephen James, If Beale Street Could Talk

Michael B. Jordan, 😐

Sam Rockwell, Cheney/Backseat

 

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, Cheney/Backseat

Claire Foy, First Man

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

two ladies from The Favourite.

 

[WrathOfHan]

Because my picks are always taken seriously:

 

Picture:

 

1. Widows

2. A Star Is Born

3. Cheney

4. The Favourite

5. First Man

6. Roma

7. BlacKkKlansman

8. Black Panther

9. Bohemian Rhapsody

10. The Front Runner

Alt: Green Book

 

Director:

 

1. Steve McQueen, Widows

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

4. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man

Alt: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

 

Actor:

 

1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

3. Christian Bale, Cheney

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man

5. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

Alt: Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

 

Actress:

 

1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

2. Viola Davis, Widows

3. Glenn Close, The Wife

4. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt: Toni Collette, Hereditary

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2. Sam Rockwell, Cheney

3. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

5. J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner

Alt: Russell Crowe, Boy Erased

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Amy Adams, Cheney

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

4. Marina de Tavira, Roma

5. Claire Foy, First Man

Alt: Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Cheney

3. Roma

4. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

5. A Quiet Place

Alt: Bohemian Rhapsody

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Widows

2. A Star Is Born

3. BlacKkKlansman

4. The Front Runner

5. First Man

Alt: Black Panther

 

I don't fucking know anymore. Give me guidance, festivals.

[Cmasterclay]

Your guys have fine and good predictions also but 1. Does Cheney actually exist? I mean maybe it pulls a Wolf/Django type situation and just drops late but even those had marketing. 2. Coolio not having Ad Astra after a year of leading the train is sad!

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Your guys have fine and good predictions also but 1. Does Cheney actually exist? I mean maybe it pulls a Wolf/Django type situation and just drops late but even those had marketing. 2. Coolio not having Ad Astra after a year of leading the train is sad!

I'll raise you one better: is AD Astra even coming out in 2018? Don't tag dudalb, but this Christmas release in limited feels very mythical.

[CoolioD1]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Your guys have fine and good predictions also but 1. Does Cheney actually exist? I mean maybe it pulls a Wolf/Django type situation and just drops late but even those had marketing. 2. Coolio not having Ad Astra after a year of leading the train is sad!

1) big short didn't drop a poster or trailer or anything until september either iirc so i think that'll happen again here. hopefully we'll see something in a couple weeks

2) ad astra is out momentarily because it seems like no one's sure whether or not it's actually gonna get a qualifying run. as soon as it's 100% confirmed for 2018 with a trailer and all that it's BACK AT THE TOP OF THE LIST.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

1) big short didn't drop a poster or trailer or anything until september either iirc so i think that'll happen again here. hopefully we'll see something in a couple weeks

2) ad astra is out momentarily because it seems like no one's sure whether or not it's actually gonna get a qualifying run. as soon as it's 100% confirmed for 2018 with a trailer and all that it's BACK AT THE TOP OF THE LIST.

True about Big Short but idk I love Mckay's comedies but I'm just not convinced he's gonna catch lightning in a bottle twice with the Academy. Definitely sounds like my kinda movie but still. Also Wall Street always relevant Dick Cheney has been replaced by 1000 new evil bad guys since then.

 

I think that you should parlay Ad Astra with #Sly. If you nail both of them we'll have no choice but to crown you. Sly/Astra 2018.

[CoolioD1]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

True about Big Short but idk I love Mckay's comedies but I'm just not convinced he's gonna catch lightning in a bottle twice with the Academy. Definitely sounds like my kinda movie but still. Also Wall Street always relevant Dick Cheney has been replaced by 1000 new evil bad guys since then.

 

I think that you should parlay Ad Astra with #Sly. If you nail both of them we'll have no choice but to crown you. Sly/Astra 2018.

emily blunt in mary poppins is my 2018 sly. 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Give me guidance, festivals.

I've been waiting until after the festivals occured before making any official predictions because the race always changes after they happen. I do feel confident now though that First Man will get a solid number of nominations, including both Gosling and Foy.

[Eric Prime]

Telluride announced their slate of films.

 

Of the major contenders for BP:

-Boy Erased

-Can You Ever Forgive Me?

-Destroyer

-First Man

-Peterloo

-Roma

-The Favourite

-The Front Runner

-The Old Man & The Gun

-The Other Side of the Wind

-White Boy Rick

[filmlover]

38 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Telluride announced their slate of films.

 

Of the major contenders for BP:

-Boy Erased

-Can You Ever Forgive Me?

-Destroyer

-First Man

-Peterloo

-Roma

-The Favourite

-The Front Runner

-The Old Man & The Gun

-The Other Side of the Wind

-White Boy Rick

So the only contenders at TIFF that will not have already been seen at Telluride/Venice are If Beale Street Could Talk, Beautiful Boy, and Ben is Back (ironic, considering the latter two have similar premises lol)?

[Eric Prime]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

So the only contenders at TIFF that will not have already been seen at Telluride/Venice are If Beale Street Could Talk, Beautiful Boy, and Ben is Back (ironic, considering the latter two have similar premises lol)?

Depends on if you consider Mid90s to be a contender (I don't)

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

Depends on if you consider Mid90s to be a contender (I don't)

Oh yeah, I'm looking forward to Mid90s but it doesn't look like something that will factor into the race at all (ditto The Hate U Give).

[Jake Gittes]

Imagine Orson Welles nominated for best director and then losing to Bradley Cooper.

[SLAM!]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

So the only contenders at TIFF that will not have already been seen at Telluride/Venice are If Beale Street Could Talk, Beautiful Boy, and Ben is Back (ironic, considering the latter two have similar premises lol)?

 

Personally, I hope it's more evenly distributed next time. The studios should try to have a more even distribution: a fair amount at Venice, a fair amount at Telluride, and a fair amount at Toronto. It'd be more exciting and it'd be harder for films to get lost in the shuffle.

[filmlover]

30 minutes ago, Slambros said:

 

Personally, I hope it's more evenly distributed next time. The studios should try to have a more even distribution: a fair amount at Venice, a fair amount at Telluride, and a fair amount at Toronto. It'd be more exciting and it'd be harder for films to get lost in the shuffle.

It's always been like this though. And a ton of stuff that hasn't yet popped up on the radar will be screening at TIFF still. It's just that most of the awards contenders that do festival runs get Venice/Telluride out of the way.