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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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Infinity War is a masterwork, but I wouldn't say it's Best Picture material just yet. Same with Black Panther. Great films in their own right, but we need to wait and see how good the Oscar candidates will be. I'd bet dollars to doughnuts those films will tell more important stories in the long run.

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On 5/30/2018 at 8:59 AM, Pandamia! said:

These are kind of my predicts right now

 

The Other Side of the Wind, Norway and Roma are all Netflix now so I feel any hope for them is faint.  Maybe Mudbound changed things.  I think if any Netflix film can make it, Roma will.

 

I also think BlacKkKlansman is much weaker than people are claiming rn.  Think Beale Street and Widows will overshadow it.

 

Best Picture

Ad Astra

Backseat

Black Panther

First Man

Mary, Queen of Scots

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

A Star is Born

Widows

Alt: Mary Poppins Returns

 

Best Director

Damien Chazelle, Firsf Man

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Adam McKay, Backseat

Josie Rourke, Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

 

Best Actress

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Viola Davis, Widows

Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

 

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Backseat

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Ryan Gosling, First Man

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Alt: Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy

 

Best Supporting Actor

Steve Carell, Backseat

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Alt: Sam Rockwell, Backseat

 

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Backseat

Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

Claire Foy, First Man

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns

Alt: Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy

 

Best Original Screenplay

Ad Astra

Backseat

Eighth Grade

Roma

A Quiet Place

Alt: Hereditary

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Black Panther

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary, Queen of Scots

Widows

Alt: Mary Poppins Returns

 

Best Cinematography

Ad Astra

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary, Queen of Scots

Roma

Alt: Black Panther

 

Editing

Backseat

Black Panther

First Man

Roma

Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: A Star is Born

 

Costume Design

Black Panther

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Alt: Ad Astra

 

HMU Design

Backseat

Black Panther

A Star is Born

Alt: The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

 

Production Design

Ad Astra

Black Panther

First Man

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: Mary Poppins Returns

 

Sound Editing

Ad Astra

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

First Man

Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: A Star is Born

 

Sound Mixing

Ad Astra

Black Panther

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

A Star is Born

Alt: Mary, Queen of Scots

 

Score

Black Panther

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

The Incredibles 2

Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: Everybody Knows

 

Song

Ashes, Deadpool 2 

Pray For Me, Black Panther

Mary Poppins Returns 

Mary Poppins Returns

A Star is Born

Alt: A Star is Born

 

VFX

Ad Astra

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

First Man

Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: Solo: A Star Wars Story

 

Animated

Early Man

Isle of Dogs

The Incredibles 2

Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Alt: Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch

 

Backseat - 6 Wins, 8 Nominations

Black Panther - 1 Win, 13 Nominations

Mary, Queen of Scots - 5 Wins, 12 Nominations

First Man - 2 Wins, 12 Nominations

Ad Astra - 1 Win, 7 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk - 1 Win, 7 Nominations

A Star is Born - 1 Win, 6 Nominations

Roma - 6 Nominations

Widows - 4 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns - 1 Win, 4 Nominations

Isle of Dogs - 1 Win, 1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War - 2 Nominations

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 2 Nominations

The Incredibles 2 - 2 Nominations

Beautiful Boy - 2 Nominations

On the Basis of Sex - 1 Nomination

BlacKkKlansman - 1 nomination

Boy Erased - 1 Nomination

Early Man - 1 Nomination

Eighth Grade - 1 Nomination

A Quiet Place - 1 Nomination

Deadpool 2 - 1 Nomination

Ralph Breaks The Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 1 Nomination

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 1 Nomination

Edited since Bernadette moved

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As I said in the Bernadette thread, Beale Street’s test screenings aren’t too positive. Annapurna won’t give much focus to it when they have Cheney, Destroyer, and Sisters Brothers. Hell, it could get delayed to 2019 if the pacing issues are really bad.

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3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

 Beale Street’s test screenings aren’t too positive. Annapurna won’t give much focus to it when they have Cheney, Destroyer, and Sisters Brothers. Hell, it could get delayed to 2019 if the pacing issues are really bad.

link?

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Annapurna is still a very new studio testing the waters. Heck, it took almost three years for A24 to finally get recognition when three of their movies were nominated for awards (and all of them took home something) before having a Best Picture winner in their fourth.

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Focus just moved Boy Erased to early November and On the Basis of Sex to Christmas Day. Clearly they're very confident in the former to bump it up to that November slot that's worked out so well for them in the past, but jury is out on the latter. Original release date had it opening the week of midterms, which would've been perfect timing.

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2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Focus just moved Boy Erased to early November and On the Basis of Sex to Christmas Day. Clearly they're very confident in the former to bump it up to that November slot that's worked out so well for them in the past, but jury is out on the latter. Original release date had it opening the week of midterms, which would've been perfect timing.

 

They probably see Boy Erased as a Moonlight and On The Basis of Sex as a Fences. It's even more apparent when seeing that On The Basis of Sex is a wide release (going up against Mary Poppins Returns, no less). I mean, I currently predict that All The Money in the World numbers might be what it's able to do, but still.

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Just now, Slambros said:

 

They probably see Boy Erased as a Moonlight and On The Basis of Sex as a Fences. It's even more apparent when seeing that On The Basis of Sex is a wide release (going up against Mary Poppins Returns, no less). I mean, I currently predict that All The Money in the World numbers might be what it's able to do, but still.

On the Basis of Sex will be opening as a limited release on Christmas Day and then expanding in January.

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2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

On the Basis of Sex will be opening as a limited release on Christmas Day and then expanding in January.

 

Yeah, that makes a little more sense to me. I can get fooled by mistakes on Box Office Mojo's release schedule quite a bit. I think a limited release would be the right thing for them to do.

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Just now, filmlover said:

This, pretty much. They just got two movies into Best Picture last year too so they can juggle more than one movie.

And based on what's been said, I doubt Mary and Sex can break into Picture unless other contenders fall

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20 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

And based on what's been said, I doubt Mary and Sex can break into Picture unless other contenders fall

I mean it’s kind of early to say it’s doubtful it could break in when we have no idea what the quality of the film is.

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1 minute ago, Pandamia! said:

I mean it’s kind of early to say it’s doubtful it could break in when we have no idea what the quality of the film is.

Mary has test screened. Reactions are good, but it's not an undeniable nominee let alone winner. IMO it's going to be more of a tech player; I'm not predicting anything above the line right now

Edited by WrathOfHan
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