Ezen Baklattan Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, filmlover said: The Big Short appeared to be a 2016 release until late September 2015 when it was added to the schedule and the trailer was released at the same time. If we continue to get nothing around that time, then we can start to speculate. True. Did it sceeen at NYFF or AFI? Obviously I’m not ruling it out yet but if we get nothing new by the end of the month I’d be mildly concerned. 4 minutes ago, filmlover said: There's Hereditary, but that's not really in contention for anything but Collette (and even her chances feel like they're fading by the day with how crowded Best Actress is). Collette may only end up with a BOFFY nom, sadly. I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to bump Gloria Bell up for the year, it’s getting pretty great buzz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, Spagheditary said: True. Did it sceeen at NYFF or AFI? Obviously I’m not ruling it out yet but if we get nothing new by the end of the month I’d be mildly concerned. Collette may only end up with a BOFFY nom, sadly. I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to bump Gloria Bell up for the year, it’s getting pretty great buzz. The Big Short did premiere at AFI, yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Quinn Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, Spagheditary said: Does A24 have anything besides Mid90s? Probably won’t go all the way but could at least get a screenplay nod. Haven't paid much attention to the Screenplay category this year, but maybe Eighth Grade could sneak its way in. TBQH, I feel like that movie could have really gone somewhere awards-wise if it was placed in the fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Eighth Grade is still my favorite movie of the year so far but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have stood much of a chance in what's looking to be such a crowded field no matter where it opened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Toni Collette will probably still get a nomination at the Globes, but I don't think she's a factor in the race anymore. Too many other people have emerged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, WrathOfHan said: Toni Collette will probably still get a nomination at the Globes, but I don't think she's a factor in the race anymore. Too many other people have emerged. Would she, though? Even there it's a packed field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cap Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 (edited) 8 hours ago, titanic2187 said: With 8000+ members, they have to convince 400+people that black panther is single best movie of the year, it is just insane! And the academy can easily get rid of racist controversy if blackklanman is out there as alternative, just like last year, they snub wonder woman when lady bird , SOW and 3 billboard were female-centric Did they create a faux category for Wonder Woman only to walk it back months later? A decision that allowed Black Panther to have months, basically alone, building Best Picture Hype (Is it good enough? Will it get snubbed? etc). They have boxed themselves into a PR nightmare if it doesn’t make the cut of the Top Ten. I almost want it to miss, cause the think pieces will be ridiculous. There is also no highlander rule on movies starring non-white men. Blackkklansman, Black Panther, Beale Street, Widows can all have showings this year. With Disney not bring Poppins anywhere, It feels like that ship has sailed. Black Panther will get Disney’s full attention. Unlike what happened with Wonder Woman for Dunkirk. AND, since everyone here just /loves/ a good Disney conspiracy: with their dastardly scheme to buy an Oscar for Ratings be foiled, they’re totally gonna go extra hard for Best Picture to make sure ABC gets those ratings! Watch them debut an exclusive look at Captain Marvel after BP wins Best Costumes or AIW wins Best Score. #CorporateSynergy Edited September 10, 2018 by captainwondyful Typo on Wonder Woman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 (edited) 43 minutes ago, captainwondyful said: With Disney not bring Poppins anywhere, It feels like that ship has sailed. Black Panther will get Disney’s full attention. Unlike what happened with Wonder Woman for Dunkirk. lol Wonder Woman wouldn't have gotten in even without Dunkirk taking up WB's attention (even if it was probably in the top 20 what with the PGA nod and all). Disney doesn't do the festival circuit for their movies either so it means nothing for the quality of Mary Poppins (not that I'm expecting it to contend for anything more than techs to begin with). We just gotta wait and see how the year shapes up. Luckily there's no shortage of African American-centric contenders this year so there won't be any "racism" outcries in the event it wasn't gonna get any above the line nominations. Edited September 10, 2018 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 As a random aside, it's awesome that a slew of people who have struck Oscar gold within the past few years (Cauron, McQueen, Chazelle, Jenkins) have all returned with follow-up films that appear to have completely avoided the "disappointing follow-up" label. Just two years ago saw Ang Lee and Ben Affleck return with follow-up films that were greeted with total apathy from critics, awards groups, and audiences alike, while Michel Hazanavicius hasn't done anything of note since The Artist either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Star Is Born vs. Roma seems like a solid match. Good narrative for the endless coverage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Jenkins might just kick Chazelle out of best director. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Jenkins might just kick Chazelle out of best director. Dunno if I'm going fully in on Beale Street yet, but Chazelle is looking weaker by the day: 1. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite 2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma 3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 4. Steve McQueen, Widows 5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman 6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk 7. Adam McKay, Vice 8. Damien Chazelle, First Man 9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther 10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Like I said yesterday, it's only going to get worse if AD Astra is out this year Edited September 10, 2018 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said: Dunno if I'm going fully in on Beale Street yet, but Chazelle is looking weaker by the day: 1. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite 2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma 3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 4. Steve McQueen, Widows 5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman 6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk 7. Adam McKay, Vice 8. Damien Chazelle, First Man 9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther 10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Like I said yesterday, it's only going to get worse if AD Astra is out this year I'm thinking Cuaron, Lee and Lanthimos is the top 3 and then the next two spots are between Cooper, Chazelle, Jenkins and possibly McKay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: I'm thinking Cuaron, Lee and Lanthimos is the top 3 and then the next two spots are between Cooper, Chazelle, Jenkins and possibly McKay. I think Cooper is comfortably third. A Star Is Born is a top three Picture contender right now, and I'm expecting the top three there to mirror in Director. Lee might be ahead of McQueen, but I don't think Klansman is getting any below the line nominations atm. That didn't stop Peele last year, but we'll see how it goes this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1. Cuaron 2. Cooper 3. Lee 4. Lanthimos 5. Chazelle/Jenkins My guess is the battle for #5 comes down to Beale Street passion vs. Universal-funded campaign. That said, Cuaron and Cooper are far and away the top two IMO. Lee and Lanthimos feel good right now, but that could obviously change. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Yeah, Cooper (and A Star is Born in general) is looking way too strong right now to not be a serious Best Director contender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cap Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said: Jenkins might just kick Chazelle out of best director. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said: Jenkins might just kick Chazelle out of best director. literally damien chazelle would snap like frank grimes at homer simpson if this happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: literally damien chazelle would snap like frank grimes at homer simpson if this happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I guess my hot take is that while I definitely have the movie getting nominated, and probably him, I don't quite have Favourite or Yorgos as high as everyone else does. Certainly not above Roma or Star is Born. Not sure it's ahead of Beale, Klansman, or First Man even. The raves aren't quite thatttt rave-y and it doesn't really have any weighty subject matter or classic story. I'm still excited as hell and it'll clean up alot of noms, but it feels a little...light, I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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