Cmasterclay Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 I've been saying for months that this is between Roma and A Star is Born and I'm still mostly there buttttt I don't know maybe Black Kkklansman is the kind of consensus choice that doesn't get any last place votes and gets enough balanced love from every voting bloc (acting, writing, tech) on the way to a surprise win? I see a path for it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 7 hours ago, Rorschach said: Producer's Guild of America Results vs Oscar Nominations: 2010: 9/10 2011: 7/10 2012: 8/10 2013: 8/10 2014: 7/10 2015: 7/10 2016: 9/10 2017: 7/10 2018: ? I think 8/10 would be a safe average to predict which ones will get in this year. The ones in bold I think have the strongest chance of actually getting the nomination. Black Panther BlacKkKlansman Bohemian Rhapsody Crazy Rich Asians The Favourite Green Book A Quiet Place Roma A Star is Born Vice They'll probably add in one other film that isn't included on the line-up. In that case, I think Beale Street will take that spot. I don't think Vice is going to get it, Bohemian is already critics-unfriendly, adding two films with mixed reviews from critics body (60% RT) will be devastating, And, not like bohemian, vice lacked of box office power to justify the general public's opinion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 I could see Michelle Yeoh being a surprise supporting actress nom if academy really doesn’t go for Beale Street. I’d say CRA and Rhapsody have the most realistic chances of the fringe contenders to get in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Vice has probably benefitted from being the very last of the major contenders to be released tbh. If it and, say, First Man (which is dead as a door nail now) had swapped release dates the fate for the latter would’ve been better as well (especially with the much better reviews it had) since they’re both looking to put up similarly mediocre box office numbers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said: I've been saying for months that this is between Roma and A Star is Born and I'm still mostly there buttttt I don't know maybe Black Kkklansman is the kind of consensus choice that doesn't get any last place votes and gets enough balanced love from every voting bloc (acting, writing, tech) on the way to a surprise win? I see a path for it. It is sad that the movie has completed its theatrical run for only criminally 9 weeks! Even if the movie got re-release thanks to Oscar like the grand budapest or get out. 50m is the celling, due to the film has already available online. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 11 hours ago, filmlover said: Vice has probably benefitted from being the very last of the major contenders to be released tbh. If it and, say, First Man (which is dead as a door nail now) had swapped release dates the fate for the latter would’ve been better as well (especially with the much better reviews it had) since they’re both looking to put up similarly mediocre box office numbers. Also worth noting that it actually got second place at the Online Film Critics Soviety awards. Right now I feel sure it’s winning Adapted Screenplay, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if it went even further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 (edited) Should win: Picture: BP. It's time for a blockbuster to win, ASIB is no substitute. Also, open your minds to genres like SH/CBM, AMPAS. Director: Lee. It's time for an African American director to win, they cannot hide behind Mexican directors forever in order to look progressive, so what better way than award a bone fide legend? Also, Focus is campaigning the shit out of BKKK so here's hoping. Actor: Malek. Audience wants this and he's very deserving. Again, in the year where AMPAS acknowledged that blockbusters are underrated, awarding a performance that moved millions around the world would be perfect. Also, no matter BR reviews, Malek was raved even by critics who outright hated the movie itself. It's a star making performance like no other this year, plus he won TV awards so he isn't a complete newbie that may not repeat a nomination. Edited January 5, 2019 by Valonqar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 52 minutes ago, Spagspiria said: Also worth noting that it actually got second place at the Online Film Critics Soviety awards. Right now I feel sure it’s winning Adapted Screenplay, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if it went even further. Vice is an Original Screenplay, which I think is going to either The Favourite or Roma. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 hour ago, filmlover said: Vice is an Original Screenplay, which I think is going to either The Favourite or Roma. Wait, I meant to quote Cmasterclay regarding BK...oops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 hours ago, Spagspiria said: Wait, I meant to quote Cmasterclay regarding BK...oops. You know, I've gotta agree with Klansman having a great shot at Screenplay. Between the three films with a tangible shot at the win -- imo, this, Beale Street, and CYEFM -- Klansman's been more well-rounded. And it'd be a deserving winner, too. It's very nuanced and it looks at its characters in many different angles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 And it’s been confirmed there will be no host this year. Too much to hope that all the categories will be presented during the telecast instead of the techs getting pushed to commercials? Probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, filmlover said: And it’s been confirmed there will be no host this year. Too much to hope that all the categories will be presented during the telecast instead of the techs getting pushed to commercials? Probably. Will this affecting the rating? It certainly make the entire ceremony not engaging. 20m rating incoming! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 6 hours ago, titanic2187 said: Will this affecting the rating? It certainly make the entire ceremony not engaging. 20m rating incoming! The ratings are probably gonna drop regardless, even with a couple of hits nominated this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 15 minutes ago, filmlover said: The ratings are probably gonna drop regardless, even with a couple of hits nominated this year. "Hey everyone, we're nominating Bohemian Rhapsody, Quiet Place, and Crazy Rich Asians for Best Picture alongside A Star is Born and Black Panther! Aren't we cool and groovy? ...Uh... Guys?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morieris Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 10 hours ago, filmlover said: And it’s been confirmed there will be no host this year. Too much to hope that all the categories will be presented during the telecast instead of the techs getting pushed to commercials? Probably. Thank god, the hosts drag it all on way too long. Why shun technicals to a backroom so someone can stroke their ego with unfunny jokes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 hours ago, filmlover said: The ratings are probably gonna drop regardless, even with a couple of hits nominated this year. yes if precursors start giving awards to Roma and such underseen movies and performances yet again. People are not stupid. They turned up to see Titanic and ROTK Oscar telecasts cause those movies were steamrolling towards Oscar wins thanks to precursor wins. But if BP, Malek, Gaga don't win shit before February, people will know that those noms are just smoke and mirrors and won't show up since obviously movies and people they haven't seen are going to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Valonqar said: yes if precursors start giving awards to Roma and such underseen movies and performances yet again. People are not stupid. They turned up to see Titanic and ROTK Oscar telecasts cause those movies were steamrolling towards Oscar wins thanks to precursor wins. But if BP, Malek, Gaga don't win shit before February, people will know that those noms are just smoke and mirrors and won't show up since obviously movies and people they haven't seen are going to win. Ok, I guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, Valonqar said: yes if precursors start giving awards to Roma and such underseen movies and performances yet again. People are not stupid. They turned up to see Titanic and ROTK Oscar telecasts cause those movies were steamrolling towards Oscar wins thanks to precursor wins. But if BP, Malek, Gaga don't win shit before February, people will know that those noms are just smoke and mirrors and won't show up since obviously movies and people they haven't seen are going to win. I don't think general audience are paying attention to precursors awards, therefore the suspense won't be killed so quick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: I don't think general audience are paying attention to precursors awards, therefore the suspense won't be killed so quick well, if BP won Golden Globe for Best Picture, they would take a note. Winners get headlines so GA does pick up on who/what keeps winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, Valonqar said: well, if BP won Golden Globe for Best Picture, they would take a note. Winners get headlines so GA does pick up on who/what keeps winning. And that will attract backlash, BP has started to gain huge amount of backlash even before the oscar nomination voting kicks in. Especially they realised BP could be the first film to represent superhero genre in oscar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
