Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[Cmasterclay]

Also, looking at the major precursors, The Favourite could have a Three Billboards esque sweep through the season without contending for Picture or Director in the end. Roma, meanwhile, isn't really positioned to win anything except DGA, and I still think it's walking away with the Oscar. 

 

Globes Drama- Star is Born

Globes Comedy - The Favourite or Green Book

SAG Ensemble - The Favourite 

WGA - The Favourite

BAFTA - The Favourite

DGA - Roma

PGA - Star is Born (Black Panther upset potential)

 

If Favourite can beat out Green Book for Best Picture at the Globes, then I'd say its the favorite (har har) in four of the seven big precursors, and 4/6 if you condense the Globes into one thing. Because of that, it's the de facto third right now, with probably a slightly higher chance to actually win than people think, just because of its appeal across multiple branches and sensibilities. I'm not predicting it, BTW, just think it's well positioned. 

 

 

[CoolioD1]

post-sag/globes 

 

1. A Star Is Born

2. Blackkklansman

3. Roma

4. Black Panther

5. Green Book

6. The Favourite

7. Vice

8. If Beale Street Could Talk

9. Mary Poppins Returns

 

Alt: ...Bohemian Rhapsody

Edited December 12, 2018 by CoolioD1

[filmlover]

A part of me thinks Bohemian Rhapsody is gonna Blind Side its way into a Best Picture nomination and another that thinks the Academy probably knows better than to nominate a movie directed by Bryan Singer (well, mostly) for the top prize. Dude would probably come out of hiding to attend these awards shows just to boost his ego.

[WrathOfHan]

BR is already locked for an Actor nomination and stands a decent chance at sound mixing, costume design, and production design. It wont be an exact Blind Side if it gets into picture and will likely pick up a few others. This is IF it even gets in; I dont have it higher than 12th or some shit rn.

[Valonqar]

Nominate BlacKKKlansman and Black Panther. Have both win steadily through the night.

 

"And the Oscar goes to Black..." The suspense, people, the suspense. I know you want it. 

[YLF]

So if Beale Street Could Talk is only playing in two theaters in Los Angeles. No amc’s(I have a*list). So it’s only going to be a very limited release? Ugh this movie is annoying keeps changing dates now is not even being released in many theaters.

[SLAM!]

1 minute ago, YLF said:

So if Beale Street Could Talk is only playing in two theaters in Los Angeles. No amc’s(I have a*list). So it’s only going to be a very limited release? Ugh this movie is annoying keeps changing dates now is not even being released in many theaters.

 

I think this is the weekend of the opening platform release, and the film will be released wide on Christmas. That's what I last heard.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, YLF said:

So if Beale Street Could Talk is only playing in two theaters in Los Angeles. No amc’s(I have a*list). So it’s only going to be a very limited release? Ugh this movie is annoying keeps changing dates now is not even being released in many theaters.

 

5 minutes ago, Slambros said:

 

I think this is the weekend of the opening platform release, and the film will be released wide on Christmas. That's what I last heard.

It’s always been NY/LA only for the 14th. Gonna expand from there, mostly in January. Local theaters don’t even have a set date as to when it’s opening here.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

It’s always been NY/LA only for the 14th. Gonna expand from there, mostly in January. Local theaters don’t even have a set date as to when it’s opening here.

Beale Street's release plan is:

 

This weekend: NY/LA

Christmas: 100-125 theaters in top markets and black-skewing markets

January 4: 600

January 18: 1,500

 

Annapurna said they might get it into 1,500 sooner, but given the 18th is right before Oscar nominations and Glass is the only wide release, it's a good date.

[CoolioD1]

Beale Street could just end up being another Carol. there are similarities there for sure. 

[Cmasterclay]

1. A Star is Born

2. Roma

3. Black Kkklansman

4. The Favourite

5. Green Book

6. Black Panther

I would be extremely surprised at this point if any of those six movies missed.

 

7. If Beale Street Could Talk

8. Mary Poppins Returns

 

If there's nine:

Bohemian Rhapsody

 

First Alts: Vice, Eighth Grade

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Beale Street could just end up being another Carol. there are similarities there for sure. 

ehhh. The Academy has never been big on Todd Haynes whereas Barry Jenkins just made the top prize two years ago. SAG just behaved weird. Now, if it starts missing more guilds, then we'll talk (on Beale Street).

Edited December 12, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[CoolioD1]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

ehhh. The Academy has never been big on Todd Haynes whereas Barry Jenkins just made the top prize two years ago. SAG just behaved weird. Now, if it starts missing more guilds, then we'll talk (on Beale Street).

Lets not talk.

[WrathOfHan]

My new picture predictions:

 

1. A Star Is Born

2. Roma

3. Black Panther

4. The Favourite

5. Green Book

6. BlacKkKlansman

7. If Beale Street Could Talk

8. Vice (ok I'm giving up on the win but I still think it'll be nominated)

-----------------

9. A Quiet Place

10. Mary Poppins Returns

 

11. Eighth Grade

12. Bohemian Rhapsody

 

I'm getting more convinced we won't have a 9th nominee this year. Nothing outside of the top 8 feels right to me.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, CoolioD1 said:

Lets not talk.

[Cmasterclay]

Something that doesn't actually matter but does a little I guess - I have alot of friends who see movies regularly but aren't up to date at all on Oscar stuff and certainly don't get into the weeds (or the indies!) like we do. Fairly #casual, you know. Anyway, I can't remember the last movie to get as many "Amazing" "So artistic" "That's gonna win soooo many Oscars" type comments than Bohemian Rhapsody among this group of people. Casual movie fans think a movie like that is the kind of thing that goes and wins a Best Picture. I'm not saying that this means anything at all, but I think alot of people don't think in the same terms we do and there's definitely a huge segment of people who are absolutely (radio) gaga over this freaking movie. 

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Something that doesn't actually matter but does a little I guess - I have alot of friends who see movies regularly but aren't up to date at all on Oscar stuff and certainly don't get into the weeds (or the indies!) like we do. Fairly #casual, you know. Anyway, I can't remember the last movie to get as many "Amazing" "So artistic" "That's gonna win soooo many Oscars" type comments than Bohemian Rhapsody among this group of people. Casual movie fans think a movie like that is the kind of thing that goes and wins a Best Picture. I'm not saying that this means anything at all, but I think alot of people don't think in the same terms we do and there's definitely a huge segment of people who are absolutely (radio) gaga over this freaking movie. 

 

I said earlier in the SAG thread that it’s more or less the same thing around me. It’s cause of that soundtrack leaving people coming out of the theater on a high. It’s definitely a movie best looked at as the only way we were ever gonna hear those songs in movie theater surround sound and not as a factual account of how everything went down.

Edited December 12, 2018 by filmlover

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, filmlover said:

 

I said earlier in the SAG thread that it’s more or less the same thing around me. It’s cause of that soundtrack leaving people coming out of the theater on a high. It’s definitely a movie best looked at as the only way we were ever gonna hear those songs in movie theater surround sound and not as a factual account of how everything went down.

My boss's brother told me earlier this week that it was "the best movie he'd seen in years," and this is someone who sees movies fairly regularly. It has pretty broad appeal too - I've seen that same kind of sentiment among both the youngs and the olds. It's that kind of basic, biopic for beginners appeal. Not too challenging + positivity + one good performance = $$$. 

[WrathOfHan]

Bohemian Rhapsody being nominated would be the Wrath of Han and get my club a win  

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

My boss's brother told me earlier this week that it was "the best movie he'd seen in years," and this is someone who sees movies fairly regularly. It has pretty broad appeal too - I've seen that same kind of sentiment among both the youngs and the olds. It's that kind of basic, biopic for beginners appeal. Not too challenging + positivity + one good performance = $$$. 

It’s basically this year’s The Greatest Showman except more #problematic (since most people are likely gonna accept this film as an actual account of what happened and not pure fantasy like they did with that film).