Wednesday Numbers: TLJ $5.1 million

[MrPink]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

WW? Yes.

OW? Yes.

DOM Total?

 

 

WW Yes

OW - We'll See

DOM - Probably not

 

I'm thinking around 220m OW/550m DOM

Edited January 4, 2018 by MrPink

[Lordmandeep]

8 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

Lol, nothing is a disaster for a 600m grosser.  Disappointment?  Fine.  But Disney’s not losing sleep over the future of Star Wars when they’re having no issues clearing the 500m mark with each SW movie made.

 

 

You really Think Rian Johnson films are going to sleepwalk past 500 million?

 

 

I highly doubt it when Disney has made like 6 SW films before that. 

Edited January 4, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[MovieMan89]

Just now, NoLegMan said:

we don't know what Disney expected internally, that is purely speculation and not even a serious position. 

Whatever they expected, I can tell you right now that no studio “expects” their big budget sequel to drop 40% worldwide from its predecessor. 

[The Panda]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

TLJ could lose nearly 800m from TFA. Nothing in the world will convince me disney has zero issue with that. There’s a difference between a movie being a bomb and a movie being hugely profitable but signaling potential concern for the future via reception and its decline from it predecessor. TLJ is the latter.

RO had that type of drop-off, TA had a drop off (but it wasn’t nearly as big as TFA so there was less room to drop off).  2B a movie is definitely not sustainable, especially with how the value of the dollar is right now.

 

Actually, if you use TA as a similar model.  IM3 (a RO like spinoff) does 400m DOM and 1.2b or so WW?  AoU then comes out 2 years later, and does a slightly larger total of 460m and 1.4b or so (didnt check but the numbers are around there).

 

In fact, I believe when I was predicting RO I used IM3 as a model.  I just didn’t use AoU as a model for TLJ, which I should have.

 

SW is behaving like that, on a larger scale. Zeitgeist TFA, RO Spin-off drop off, TLJ picks up from RO by a marginal amount.  I’ll watch how IW plays and likely use it as a comparison for Episode 9.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

You really Think Rian Johnson films are going to sleepwalk past 500 million?

 

 

I highly doubt it when Disney has made like 6 SW films before that. 

I’m about 75% sure that trilogy isn’t happening, and if/when it gets announced it will pretty much put to rest any speculation of what Disney thinks of TLJs performance.

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, New Year New Panda said:

RO had that type of drop-off, TA had a drop off (but it wasn’t nearly as big as TFA so there was less room to drop off).  2B a movie is definitely not sustainable, especially with how the value of the dollar is right now.

 

Actually, if you use TA as a similar model.  IM3 (a RO like spinoff) does 400m DOM and 1.2b or so WW?  AoU then comes out 2 years later, and does a slightly larger total of 460m and 1.4b or so (didnt check but the numbers are around there).

 

In fact, I believe when I was predicting RO I used IM3 as a model.  I just didn’t use AoU as a model for TLJ, which I should have.

 

SW is behaving like that, on a larger scale. Zeitgeist TFA, RO Spin-off drop off, TLJ picks up from RO by a marginal amount.  I’ll watch how IW plays and likely use it as a comparison for Episode 9.

 

So is Solo the Civil War equivalent 

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

RO had that type of drop-off, TA had a drop off (but it wasn’t nearly as big as TFA so there was less room to drop off).  2B a movie is definitely not sustainable, especially with how the value of the dollar is right now.

 

Actually, if you use TA as a similar model.  IM3 (a RO like spinoff) does 400m DOM and 1.2b or so WW?  AoU then comes out 2 years later, and does a slightly larger total of 460m and 1.4b or so (didnt check but the numbers are around there).

 

In fact, I believe when I was predicting RO I used IM3 as a model.  I just didn’t use AoU as a model for TLJ, which I should have.

 

SW is behaving like that, on a larger scale. Zeitgeist TFA, RO Spin-off drop off, TLJ picks up from RO by a marginal amount.  I’ll watch how IW plays and likely use it as a comparison for Episode 9.

 

 

The issue is I doubt any non-main SW film is gonna come close to a billion dollars WW.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[NoLegMan]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Whatever they expected, I can tell you right now that no studio “expects” their big budget sequel to drop 40% worldwide from its predecessor. 

 you would be shocked especially considering how much TFA overperformed.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

You really Think Rian Johnson films are going to sleepwalk past 500 million?

 

 

I highly doubt it when Disney has made like 6 SW films before that. 

I don’t know what the franchise will look like then, neither do you.

 

Disney also likely isn’t expecting them to nor do they need them to.  SW movies are performing way over the margin they need to be profitable. (And that’s not factoring merchandising into account)

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, NoLegMan said:

 you would be shocked especially considering how much TFA overperformed.

 

Budget is supposedly $200m, same as Rogue One. TFA supposedly around $250m budget. So they definitely expected a pretty big drop if they decided to spend "spin off" level budget instead of something closer to TFA budget.

[The Panda]

Just now, MrPink said:

 

So is Solo the Civil War equivalent 

Lol, we’ll see if it’s a CW, GOTG2 or TR equivalent.  I expect it won’t have a hard time clearing 400m though.

 

CW was weird because it was practically an Avengers movie.  Solo isn’t really a good comparison because it’s more like one of Marvel’s solo movies like Ragnarok or Guardians.

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

WW Yes

OW - We'll See

DOM - Probably not

 

I'm thinking around 220m OW/550m DOM

I'm going with 225/590. The empty May market is going to help legs out a bit.

[Lordmandeep]

3 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

I don’t know what the franchise will look like then, neither do you.

 

Disney also likely isn’t expecting them to nor do they need them to.  SW movies are performing way over the margin they need to be profitable. (And that’s not factoring merchandising into account)

 

 

You are under the assumption SW will remain as a popular long term as the MCU with film after film.

 

My opinion is SW remains so popular as it spans generations through few films. 

 

I just dont think you can recreate the MCU or else there would be multiple MCU's right now. 

Edited January 4, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, New Year New Panda said:

Lol, we’ll see if it’s a CW, GOTG2 or TR equivalent.  I expect it won’t have a hard time clearing 400m though.

 

CW was weird because it was practically an Avengers movie.  Solo isn’t really a good comparison because it’s more like one of Marvel’s solo movies like Ragnarok or Guardians.

 

I'm honestly one of those guys who thinks Solo is gonna do more like 250m or so rather than 400, so yeah.

[MovieMan89]

You guys are missing the point of all of this, which is the future not the present. Saying “everything is fine in the now” is a recipe for disaster in Hollywood. That’s how franchises get into trouble. TLJs run should definitely serve as warning signs that Disney can’t just do whatever they want with SW and throw one out every year and green pastures forever. If they don’t handle the brand with more care and caution, we will have an SW bomb at the box office and possible genuine SW fatigue on the whole. And it may be way sooner than most here think. 

[The Panda]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Budget is supposedly $200m, same as Rogue One. TFA supposedly around $250m budget. So they definitely expected a pretty big drop if they decided to spend "spin off" level budget instead of something closer to TFA budget.

That’s the thing, Disney isn’t going to spend 250m per Star Wars movie.  200m per movie and they only need around 500-600m WW gross to maintain a profit (not fsctoring in merchandise).  SW is in no danger of falling below that mark within the next few years.

 

If they start producing a lot of real turds, maybe, but even then the Prequels still maintained a very healthy profit.

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm going with 225/590. The empty May market is going to help legs out a bit.

 

I am expecting Slender Man to do some gangbusters and will kill IW legs.

[NoLegMan]

I think solo is going to perform better than expected. Unless it just sucks ass. 

[TwoMisfits]

I think 2018 will be the year the stories will be what big budget movies couldn't go big, b/c the industry is playing with free money til Moviepass goes down or changes...and big budget movies are almost certain to draw every Moviepass holder in...so, floors for movies will just be higher...and missing that floor will be so unexpected and rare...

 

I wouldn't guess any big budget movie at a low total unless it's truly, really awful...

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

You are under the assumption SW will remain as a popular long term as the MCU with film after film.

 

My opinion is SW remains so popular as it spans generations through few films. 

 

I just dont think you can recreate the MCU or else there would be multiple MCU's right now. 

 

You arent recreating the MCU.  You’re not releasing 3 SW movies a year, you’re releasing 1 (and if Disney decides to cycle in Avatar now then only 0.66 or so)

 

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

I'm honestly one of those guys who thinks Solo is gonna do more like 250m or so rather than 400, so yeah.

 

I think its 4-Day OW will be much closer to 250m than the DOM total.  It’s kind of a wildcard but I have a hard time thinking over half of the people who saw RO won’t go see Solo.