Daily Numbers | Wednesday Jan 10th | The Last Jedi 1.7 million

[Sal]

57 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony Pictures	$2,186,086	-38%	3,801	$575	$254,005,329	22
2	(2)	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$1,744,275	-26%	4,232	$412	$578,595,635	27
3	(3)	Insidious: The Last Key	Universal	$1,373,090	-38%	3,116	$441	$34,930,695	6
4	(4)	The Greatest Showman	20th Century Fox	$1,324,529	-30%	3,342	$396	$81,464,445	22
5	(6)	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$797,270	-18%	1,733	$460	$30,470,347	50
6	(7)	Molly’s Game	STX Entertainment	$693,401	-25%	1,608	$431	$16,247,332	17
7	(5)	Pitch Perfect 3	Universal	$652,490	-33%	3,458	$189	$88,370,165	20
8	(8)	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	$521,946	-14%	804	$649	$23,275,147	41
9	(9)	All the Money in the World	Sony Pictures	$453,172	-18%	2,123	$213	$21,479,017	17
10	(11)	Coco	Walt Disney	$344,600	-30%	1,894	$182	$193,232,987	50
11	(10)	Ferdinand	20th Century Fox	$306,756	-38%	3,156	$97	$71,767,344	27
12	(12)	Lady Bird	A24	$287,496	-7%	562	$512	$34,965,087	69

 

Coco finally had a daily gross more than Ferdinand after beating it's PTA pretty much every day for two weeks.  Good for it.

Edited January 11, 2018 by Sal

[junkshop36]

Excelent drop for TLJ. Not sure why but I’ll take it at this point lol

 

Large theater count drop but I think it’ll still do ok this weekend. Maybe 15-16m four day

[JonathanLB]

At this rate it should overtake Jumanji on Saturday. Hahahaha just joking! But weird J fell harder Wednesday. I guess SW fans like me don’t care as much about discount Tuesday or something but the families rushed harder to save money on the brats’ tickets?! I dunno.

[AndyK]

2 hours ago, B D Joe said:

Episode IX will be the last Star Wars film to gross 600m+.

IX is not going to make 600

[Captain Craig]

So with the 3-day MLK weekend how well will The Greatest Showman perform? Currently at $81m+

Can it land at or just over $90m come Tuesday actuals?

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Captain Craig said:

So with the 3-day MLK weekend how well will The Greatest Showman perform? Currently at $81m+

Can it land at or just over $90m come Tuesday actuals?

Should be over 95 after the 4 day. No reason to expect a decrease from last weekend for the 4 day.

[WrathOfHan]

> NEW RELEASES
2	-	Paddington 2	Warner Bros.	3,702	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
6	-	The Commuter	Lionsgate	2,892	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
9	-	Proud Mary	Sony / Screen Gems	2,200	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
26	-	Condorito: La Pelicula	Lionsgate	153	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
34	-	The Insult	Cohen Media Group	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
1	2	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony / Columbia	3,849	+48	+1.3%	-	-	-	-	4
3	6	Insidious: The Last Key	Universal	3,150	+34	+1.1%	-	-	-	-	2
7	36	The Post	Fox	2,819	+2,783	+7,730.6%	-	-	-	-	4
11	12	Molly's Game	STX Entertainment	1,708	+100	+6.2%	-	-	-	-	3
14	21	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	Fox Searchlight	1,022	+712	+229.7%	-	-	-	-	10
17	15	Lady Bird	A24	652	+90	+16.0%	-	-	-	-	11
18	23	I, Tonya	Neon	517	+261	+102.0%	-	-	-	-	6
25	27	Call Me by Your Name	Sony Classics	174	+57	+48.7%	-	-	-	-	8
28	53	Phantom Thread	Focus Features	62	+56	+933.3%	-	-	-	-	3
29	35	The Florida Project	A24	51	+14	+37.8%	-	-	-	-	15
31	51	Happy End	Sony Classics	11	+5	+83.3%	-	-	-	-	4
33	59	Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool	Sony Classics	9	+5	+125.0%	-	-	-	-	3
> DECLINING
4	1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	Buena Vista	3,090	-1,142	-27.0%	-	-	-	-	5
5	4	The Greatest Showman	Fox	2,938	-404	-12.1%	-	-	-	-	4
8	3	Pitch Perfect 3	Universal	2,507	-951	-27.5%	-	-	-	-	4
10	5	Ferdinand	Fox	2,154	-1,002	-31.7%	-	-	-	-	5
12	10	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	1,692	-41	-2.4%	-	-	-	-	8
13	9	Coco	Buena Vista	1,362	-532	-28.1%	-	-	-	-	8
15	13	Wonder	Lionsgate	970	-288	-22.9%	-	-	-	-	9
16	14	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	723	-81	-10.1%	-	-	-	-	7
19	8	Downsizing	Paramount	412	-1,608	-79.6%	-	-	-	-	4
20	17	The Disaster Artist	A24	371	-107	-22.4%	-	-	-	-	7
21	19	Thor: Ragnarok	Buena Vista	242	-83	-25.5%	-	-	-	-	11
22	16	Justice League	Warner Bros.	226	-292	-56.4%	-	-	-	-	9
23	18	Daddy's Home 2	Paramount	201	-228	-53.1%	-	-	-	-	10
24	11	Father Figures	Warner Bros.	201	-1,516	-88.3%	-	-	-	-	4
27	26	Blade Runner 2049	Warner Bros.	125	-8	-6.0%	-	-	-	-	15
30	33	Hostiles	Entertainment Studios	42	-4	-8.7%	-	-	-	-	4
32	43	Same Kind of Different as Me	Pure Flix	11	-9	-45.0%	-	-	-	-	13

 

 

looooool @ Downsizing, Father Figures, TLJ, and Ferdinand  

Three Billboards is cashing in on those Globe wins nicely

Looks like Darkest Hour might be done expanding

Hostiles is losing theaters before it goes into 3k next week too  

BTW, 12 Strong is up to 2,900 theaters now

[mikee11]

1 hour ago, JonathanLB said:

At this rate it should overtake Jumanji on Saturday. Hahahaha just joking! But weird J fell harder Wednesday. I guess SW fans like me don’t care as much about discount Tuesday or something but the families rushed harder to save money on the brats’ tickets?! I dunno.

There was some new buzz around it on my social media feeds, they released some footage and stills from the best scenes  they kept from the promotional materials, don't know if it was following  normal marketing plan or a reaction to its legs

Edited January 12, 2018 by mikee11

[Porthos]

In case anyone cares, R1 had 3162 theaters for its fifth weekend.  Pretty much the same ballpark, all things considered.

 

(The difference between TLJ and R1 is that theaters were allowed to drop R1 in its third weekend)

[WrathOfHan]

TGS forecast with a 1.3M Thursday:

 

Jan 12: 13.5M (5M weekdays, 101.3M Total)

Jan 19: 8.4M (4M weekdays, 113.7M Total)

Jan 26: 8M (3.5M weekdays, 125.2M Total)

Feb 2: 7.5M (3M weekdays, 135.7M Total)

Feb 9: 6.5M (2.6M weekdays, 144.8M Total)

Feb 16: 5M (2.5M weekdays, 152.3M Total)

Feb 23: 2.8M (1.2M weekdays, 156.3M Total)

Mar 2: 1.8M (700k weekdays, 158.8M Total)

Final Total: 162M (12.09x from 5 day/18.41x from 3 day)

 

I can't believe this damn thing will have a sub-10% drop this weekend and potentially increase. What the fuck is Fox thinking releasing this on Blu-Ray March 6? It's going to cut late legs by at least 5-6M.

[MovieMan89]

TGS is probably the last shot we will ever have for a wide release to get a 20x multi. Not that I think it will happen ($176m) but the fact that it's not completely impossible is insane. 

[MovieMan89]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TGS forecast with a 1.3M Thursday:

 

Jan 12: 13.5M (5M weekdays, 101.3M Total)

Jan 19: 8.4M (4M weekdays, 113.7M Total)

Jan 26: 8M (3.5M weekdays, 125.2M Total)

Feb 2: 7.5M (3M weekdays, 135.7M Total)

Feb 9: 6.5M (2.6M weekdays, 144.8M Total)

Feb 16: 5M (2.5M weekdays, 152.3M Total)

Feb 23: 2.8M (1.2M weekdays, 156.3M Total)

Mar 2: 1.8M (700k weekdays, 158.8M Total)

Final Total: 162M (12.09x from 5 day/18.41x from 3 day)

 

I can't believe this damn thing will have a sub-10% drop this weekend and potentially increase. What the fuck is Fox thinking releasing this on Blu-Ray March 6? It's going to cut late legs by at least 5-6M.

That's an absurd release date given the holds this looks sure to have throughout its run. It can probably easily play until Infinity War. Hopefully when it's still pulling 5m+ weekends in the middle of February they will rethink that. 

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That's an absurd release date given the holds this looks sure to have throughout its run. It can probably easily play until Infinity War. Hopefully when it's still pulling 5m+ weekends in the middle of February they will rethink that. 

It hasn't been officially announced yet, so there's still plenty of time to change it. I know they held off on Three Billboards for a bit before announcing February 27 a few days ago, which also might be a mistake if it wins BP less than a week later.

 

Edit: that date wasn't officially announced either

Edited January 12, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

I'm really glad TGS and Wonder broke out the way they did. Makes me curious if we'll see anything in the vein of those break out this holiday season.

[aabattery]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm really glad TGS and Wonder broke out the way they did. Makes me curious if we'll see anything in the vein of those break out this holiday season.

 

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

"LeeDaniels"

 

[DAJK]

TGS extremely quietly became a surprise BO sensation. No, it isn't a 300M grosser or anything, but is a wide release movie that's guaranteed to have a 15x multi, and is going to flirt with even higher. It not only broke the record for best second weekend drop for any movie playing in 3000+ theatres, it decimated it. And to think, pretty much everyone (rightfully so) thought it would be a money loser, especially after that OW.

 

I'm just pissed I'll probably not get a chance to see it in theatres.

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm really glad TGS and Wonder broke out the way they did. Makes me curious if we'll see anything in the vein of those break out this holiday season.

I'd say no way, this Holiday has literally 8 movies all aiming for 150m+ and another 4 hoping for 100+. No room for a breakout. The question should be which movies this holiday will severely underperform? At least 3 of those 12 will, if not 4 or 5.  

Edited January 12, 2018 by MovieMan89

[DAJK]

Going to post my predictions for Thursday in here, see how close I end up in the morning.

 

Proud Mary - 0 

Spoiler

really hope I can get that one down to the dollar

 

Paddington - 500k, I don't really see a movie that is this family-oriented doing much for Thursday. Friday I could see doing around 5M though.

 

The Commuter - 800k, The Accountant did 1.35M on its way to 24.7M, a number like this could bring it to 14.6 for the 3-day. But Accountant had great WOM so I'd say a number like this would bring it to 13M

 

The Post - 1M. Even if this comes in significantly lower, I'd say this movie will still do at least mid 20's for the 3-day. Doesn't seem like a pre-sale oriented movie, but I'm going to trust the Berg anyways