Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[weresweresweres]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

No one is saying $400M+ DOM is locked for Jumanji. People are saying that if it continues to hold well, it's very possible though. Jumanji is having better weekday holds than Night at the Museum to this point as well. That cannot be discounted. I don't have the post in front of me but aabattery and others have done a better job detailing exactly why it can happen. At the very least, Jumanji seemed essentially locked for $375M+ DOM unless it starts to see sharper dips on weekdays and weekends all of the sudden.

 

Again, what will also help is that Jumanji doesn't really have any direct competition until Black Panther. Paddington 2 is already showing that there isn't much of an audience for it and Ferdinand has essentially faded already. That's four more weeks/weekends sans any real competition. Not to mention, Jumanji will likely hold to a lot of premium screens through those weeks because it's playing so well.

 

Did you realize Wonder Woman's $24M+ was a 5 day total and use it to compare what Jumanji would do next weekend in a true FSS v. FSS? Or, are you just brushing that mistake off. We all make them but that's why I'm giving more credence to aabattery and others with experience in projecting. They're usually, given enough data, pretty reliable at extrapolating a gross one we're this deep into a run DOM.

 

Personally, I expect Jumanji to finish with just over/under $380M DOM at the moment.

Jumanji has to make 30% more than wonder woman did. So even if wonder woman made this 24 mln during 5 days jumanji would have to make more than 30 mln and it's not possible. I could understand that using extrapolation someone could prove that jumanji can make 400 mln but based on sing natm or ww it wouldnt happened. jumanji result is fantastic and setting crazy goals is unnecessery.

[Random2]

P

Edited January 14, 2018 by ck5111

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Ok, The Last Jedi. 😉

 

Just nearly $11M left until it beats Frozen, WW-wise. ⭐️

[IronJimbo]

12 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

LOL.

 

Its easy to list something like that if you have 1st movies that DIDNT made 2 Billion worldwide like TFA did. You cant just use Batman Begins with its small 373M take and ignore all the things that led up to TDK's blowout . Like, if BB made 2B worlwide, youd consider the 1B worlwide performance of TDK disappointing? You seriously use ICE AGE as a comparison?

 

The Last Jedi will be the 9th or 8th biggest movie ever. Its an incredible success in raw numbers. Yes, the drop is big from TFA but you still have a 1,3B WW grossing movie for gods sake. If it makes 620M in the end, coming under The Avengers, thats still 88% from ESB first run adjusted . And if you want to have sequels that fared FAR worse than TLJ to big 1st movies look at Alice 2! From 1,024B worldwide to a pathetic 299M! Or look at the complete and utter implosions from Transformers 5 and Justice League!

You haven't mentioned it in this post, so do you think TLJ under or over-performed to expectations?

Edited January 14, 2018 by IronJimbo

[MovieMan89]

Coco's DOM run is so disappointing. Barely going to manage a 2.8x off its 5 day and squeak by 200. That's just unacceptable for a Pixar movie that is top tier quality and had a holiday release. Thank god it at least surprised and broke out OS or it probably wouldn't have turned much of a profit. 

Edited January 14, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Brainbug]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

You haven't mentioned it in this post, so do you think TLJ under or underperformance to expectations?

 

It certainly underperformed my predictions I pegged it at 710M DOM and 730M OS for a 1,44B WW finish. OS looks like 710-720M now, so thats a really good result in my book. Its domestic run screwed my prediction though.

[Noctis]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

It certainly underperformed my predictions I pegged it at 710M DOM and 730M OS for a 1,44B WW finish. OS looks like 710-720M now, so thats a really good result in my book. Its domestic run screwed my prediction though.

No way it's going to hit $710m OS. 

 

 

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Coco's DOM run is so disappointing. Barely going to manage a 2.8x off its 5 day and squeak by 200. That's just unacceptable for a Pixar movie that is top tier quality and had a holiday release. Thank god it at least surprised and broke out OS or it probably wouldn't have turned much of a profit. 

I guess the less-white-american friendly theme making the movie less accessible to part of the audience, same thing happen to ratatouille, the french-themed pixar films 

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You haven't mentioned it in this post, so do you think TLJ under or over-performed to expectations?

I went for 725m and 1.5b+ WW after its opening weekend and in my head was no way this is going to be lower than AoU.

[NCsoft]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

It certainly underperformed my predictions I pegged it at 710M DOM and 730M OS for a 1,44B WW finish. OS looks like 710-720M now, so thats a really good result in my book. Its domestic run screwed my prediction though.

That's actually a really reasonable prediction, unlike a lot of 1.7,1.8, 1.9B that were thrown around. My prediction at 1.35B is about to be bang on (a little over-predicted actually), but then again, I always under-predict Star Wars due to personal biases, for instance, I thought TFA would do less than JW Worldwide. So I'm really surprised this time.

[Brainbug]

Just now, Noctis said:

No way it's going to hit $710m OS. 

 

 

 

It had a 19M OS weekend for a 673M cume. China already imploded, so it mabye adds 3 million or so from there. From the rest of the markets, the late legs dont need to be outstanding for it to hit 700-710M.

 

9M Next weekend OS

 

5M

 

2,5M

 

1,5M

 

+ 7M overall from weekdays for the rest of the whole run

 

gives you 698 and thats with not-so-nice drops. Its not collapsing OS like some want to suggest. From there it coud easily add another 3-5M plus the few buckets from China.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, NCsoft said:

That's actually a really reasonable prediction, unlike a lot of 1.7,1.8, 1.9B that were thrown around. My prediction at 1.35B is about to be bang on (a little over-predicted actually), but then again, I always under-predict Star Wars due to personal biases, for instance, I thought TFA would do less than JW Worldwide. So I'm really surprised this time.

 

TFA was a phenomenon-run in all of its biggest markets and also benefited from the fact that the Chinese didnt know at the time that they hate Star Wars . So it was completely unreasonable for me to expect something close to TFA's performance, especially considering that Rogue One exists; TLJ is the 3rd SW movie in as many years. Its just not the same event-level as TFA. I didnt understood these 1,7B+ predictions but ill admit the DOM OW hyped me up a lot^^.

[Noctis]

DH2's safe at least, bitches.

 

 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Noctis said:

DH2's safe at least, bitches.

 

 

 

 

Im confused. Daddys Home 2 has been long overtaken by TLJ.

 

Spoiler

 

 

[Noctis]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Im confused. Daddys Home 2 has been long overtaken by TLJ.

 

  Hide contents

 

 

Where are you from?

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Noctis said:

Where are you from?

 

...why?

[JohnnyGossamer]

32 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

Jumanji has to make 30% more than wonder woman did. So even if wonder woman made this 24 mln during 5 days jumanji would have to make more than 30 mln and it's not possible. I could understand that using extrapolation someone could prove that jumanji can make 400 mln but based on sing natm or ww it wouldnt happened. jumanji result is fantastic and setting crazy goals is unnecessery.

No one's setting that goal. People are merely discussing the possibility. And, what needs to be looked at is how well will Jumanji hold the each the next four weeks and weekends. Jumanji will likely gross more FFS over the next four weekends or, even, remainder of its weekends than Wonder Woman grossed from it's fourth FFS to the conclusion of its run. It can't simply be viewed in vacuum. Again, we'll have a better idea when actuals drop on Tuesday and when seeing how Jumanji holds the coming weekends. If it does something just over $20M next weekend, which I don't expect but won't rule out, then, it's time to start considering that $400M could actually happen.

[Noctis]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

...why?

Curious. 

[MovieMan89]

I don't think J will have quite enough gas to get to 400, however I can see GotG2 happening. 

[Brainbug]

Just now, Noctis said:

Curious. 

 

Germany.

 

Just so you know, im a big fat Potterhead. I love every film and book