Weekend Estimates (Page 16 if you care): Jumanji 10.9M | Maze Runner 10.5M | Winchester 9.3M | Showman 7.7M | The Post 5.3M | Hostiles 5.2M

[filmlover]

I, Tonya would've benefited more from nominations had it received a Best Picture nom. Still, $30M is a great total for it, and a huge win for an start-up studio like Neon.

[Blankments]

@WrathOfHan

 

8x:

 

Annihilation: Blade Runner 2049, Happy Death Day, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, The Post, Call Me by Your Name, The Commuter

Ready Player One: It, Blade Runner 2049, It Round 2, Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, The Post, Last Flag Flying

A Wrinkle in Time: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Coco Round 4, The Post, Coco Round 5, Last Flag Flying

 

7x:

 

Pacific Rim: Uprising: Blade Runner 2049, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Sherlock Gnomes: Wonder, Coco, Coco Round 3, Coco Round 4, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Coco Round 5, Paddington 2

Black Panther: The Hitman’s Bodyguard, mother!, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3, The Commuter, Last Flag Flying

 

6x:

 

Isle of Dogs: The LEGO Ninjago Movie, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, Downsizing, Paddington 2, I, Tonya

 

5x:

 

Early Man: Wonder, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Wonder Round 2, Coco Round 4, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Incredibles 2: Coco, Coco Round 3, Coco Round 4, Coco Round 5, Paddington 2

Peter Rabbit: Coco, Coco Round 4, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Coco Round 5, Paddington 2

Alpha: Dunkirk Round 2, Geostorm, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Last Flag Flying

 

4x:

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4

Avengers: Infinity War: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4

Rampage: Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Death Wish: Detroit, Annabelle: Creation, Terminator 2: Judgment Day 3D, The Commuter

Tomb Raider: Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Geostorm, Murder on the Orient Express, The Commuter

Red Sparrow: Kingsman: The Golden Circle, The Snowman, The Post, The Commuter

Fifty Shades Freed: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, All the Money in the World, I, Tonya

The 15:17 to Paris: The Shape of Water, All the Money in the World, Call Me by Your Name, I, Tonya

 

3x:

 

Deadpool 2: Logan, Logan Round 2, Justice League

Duck Duck Goose: My Little Pony: The Movie, Wonder, Coco

Blockers: The Disaster Artist, The Disaster Artist Round 2, Downsizing

A Quiet Place: Justice League, The Shape of Water, Downsizing

Alita: Battle Angel: Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4

Love, Simon: The Greatest Showman, The Post, Call Me by Your Name

The Miracle Season: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Paddington 2

Winchester: The Disaster Artist Round 2, The Shape of Water, The Commuter

Sicario 2: Soldado: All the Money in the World, The Post, The Commuter

 

2x:

 

Polaroid: Wind River, Happy Death Day

The New Mutants: Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

Game Night: The Disaster Artist, The Disaster Artist Round 2

Lean on Pete: The Shape of Water, All the Money in the World

Samson: All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman

Mortal Engines: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Commuter

 

1x:

 

The Current War: Wind River

Super Troopers 2: Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Thoroughbreds: The Disaster Artist

Chappaquiddick: Downsizing

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: The Greatest Showman

Sgt. Stubby: Coco Round 4

Gringo: Molly’s Game

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!: The Post

Tully: Call Me by Your Name

A Fantastic Woman: Call Me by Your Name

Teen Titans Go! To The Movies!: Paddington 2

Smallfoot: Paddington 2

Acrimony: The Commuter

[a2k]

39 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Either way, it’s amazing that a 17% drop is the biggest drop for a film that’s been out for 6 weeks

Wouldn't be surprised if next Sunday is better than this Sunday due to SuperB. BP could hit everything next to next weekend but at least it's a 4-day and could cushion the blow. Adding 5x this weekend takes it to 175 and gets it to challenge Get Out, Lego Bat on dom charts 2017. Wonder if it can go after DUNKIRK.

Edited February 3, 2018 by a2knet

[MaxAggressor]

@a2knet

 

I was thinking about your TLJ projection and it seems to me that (621-621.5) million is too high for the movie atm. After 7 weeks TLJ is at 612.116 million. Assuming a 29.6% (same as that of R1 from last year) drop in PTA from last weekend, TLJ could notch up 2.52 million (-40.76%) this weekend. R1 managed to do 2.58 times it's 8th weekend. The same legs will give TLJ a further 6.5 million. 88% of that gives TLJ about 5.72 million. So domestic total ends at [612.116+2.52+5.72] = 620.36 million. I feel like that's the ceiling right now.

Edited February 3, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[baumer]

Deadline didn't even report SW lol

[EmpireCity]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

Deadline didn't even report SW lol

This is why you have someone like me to tell you $610k feels about right.  

[MaxAggressor]

So TLJ starts off the weekend pretty much like the way last weekend panned out. The Friday for TLJ is 78.1% of R1's 8th Friday. During last weekend's Friday, it was TLJ = 76.01% of R1. The whole of last weekend was 80.72% of R1. So we could be looking at something like (83.5-84)% of R1 this weekend. So (2.43-2.45) million. Down 42.4% from last weekend.

[MaxAggressor]

 

[MaxAggressor]

 

[MaxAggressor]

 

[MaxAggressor]

 

[MaxAggressor]

 

[MaxAggressor]

1	WINCHESTER Lionsgate 2,480	$3,605,000 -- / $1,454 $3,605,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
2	MAZE RUNNER: THE DEATH CURE Fox 3,793	$3,010,000 +190.8% / $794 $32,570,199 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
3	JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE Sony / Columbia 3,352	$2,875,000 +239.4% / $858 $344,517,752 / 45	N/A	N/A	N/A
4	THE GREATEST SHOWMAN Fox 2,588	$2,260,000 +206.7% / $873 $131,935,172 / 45	N/A	N/A	N/A
5	HOSTILES Entertainment Studios 2,934	$1,665,000 +109.9% / $567 $17,379,413 / 43	N/A	N/A	N/A
6	THE POST Fox 2,462	$1,565,000 +117.2% / $636 $63,549,510 / 43	N/A	N/A	N/A
7	12 STRONG Warner Bros. 2,918	$1,465,000 +135.4% / $502 $34,058,553 / 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
8	DEN OF THIEVES STX Entertainment 2,112	$1,430,000 +130.6% / $677 $33,030,932 / 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
9	THE SHAPE OF WATER Fox Searchlight 2,341	$1,290,000 +141.1% / $551 $41,570,050 / 64	N/A	N/A	N/A
10	THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Fox Searchlight 1,726	$875,000 +150.9% / $507 $39,639,051 / 85	N/A	N/A	N/A
11	I, TONYA Neon 1,450	$769,000 +164.8% / $530 $20,852,885 / 57	N/A	N/A	N/A
12	FOREVER MY GIRL Roadside Attractions 1,427	$730,000 +185.1% / $512 $10,991,654 / 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	DARKEST HOUR Focus Features 1,486	$706,000 +138.1% / $475 $47,129,157 / 73	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	PADDINGTON 2 Warner Bros. 2,388	$655,000 +204.2% / $274 $33,858,679 / 22	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	PHANTOM THREAD Focus Features 1,186	$634,000 +99.9% / $535 $12,668,109 / 40	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI Buena Vista 1,467	$613,000 +100% / $418 $612,729,780 / 50	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	THE COMMUTER Lionsgate 1,494	$529,000 +104.8% / $354 $33,128,747 / 22	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	INSIDIOUS: THE LAST KEY Universal 1,253	$447,000 +156.4% / $357 $64,737,960 / 29	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	COCO Buena Vista 1,636	$319,000 +331.9% / $195 $203,378,729 / 73	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	FERDINAND Fox 575	$130,000 +187.2% / $226 $80,894,633 / 50	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	WONDER Lionsgate 256	$84,000 +107.9% / $328 $130,803,515 / 78	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	THOR: RAGNAROK Buena Vista 204	$71,000 +364.5% / $348 $313,822,273 / 92	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	DADDY'S HOME 2 Paramount 125	$24,000 +161.5% / $192 $103,810,796 / 85	N/A	N/A	N/A

[SLAM!]

Winchester might become the worst-quality #1 winner since The Dark Tower...

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

This is why you have someone like me to tell you $610k feels about right.  

Thanks, don't know what I would have done without that.

[a2k]

1 hour ago, MaxAggressor said:

@a2knet

 

I was thinking about your TLJ projection and it seems to me that (621-621.5) million is too high for the movie atm. After 7 weeks TLJ is at 612.116 million. Assuming a 29.6% (same as that of R1 from last year) drop in PTA from last weekend, TLJ could notch up 2.52 million (-40.76%) this weekend. R1 managed to do 2.58 times it's 8th weekend. The same legs will give TLJ a further 6.5 million. 88% of that gives TLJ about 5.72 million. So domestic total ends at [612.116+2.52+5.72] = 620.36 million. I feel like that's the ceiling right now.

Yeah that sounds good. Sometimes one good/bad weekend in the late run can change things. Eg: will there be double shows for TLJ with BP? If it gets some boost then could target TA too but doesn't look likely.

[a2k]

COCO got a 1000 theater expansion (621 vs 1636). Up 19% from last Friday (0.319 vs 0.267)

[The Panda]

2 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

Either way, it’s amazing that a 17% drop is the biggest drop for a film that’s been out for 6 weeks

That’s a 17% Super Bowl Sunday drop too, wtf

[DAJK]

I just don't get TGS holds... like yea it was good... but it wasn't amazing or anything. There have been many more crowdpleasers that have fizzled out recently

[Eric is Quiet]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

I just don't get TGS holds... like yea it was good... but it wasn't amazing or anything. There have been many more crowdpleasers that have fizzled out recently