BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[That One Girl]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

What makes this not true for other trailers? 

 

It probably is, but more so for Infinity War IMO

[filmlover]

Trailer views will always be a useless way of measuring box office potential.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Trailer views will always be a useless way of measuring box office potential.

 

I mean, go tell that to It

[Deja23]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/black-panther-top-grossing-film-history-at-33-amc-theaters-1085844

Quote

Put another way, Black Panther earned more at those cinemas on Thursday evening and Friday — along with advance ticket sales for other times during the weekend — than any other movie has in an entire weekend.

AMC didn't provide a list of the 33 theaters, nor a precise dollar amount for those cinemas, but noted that there were a record 83 showings on Friday at the AMC Southlake 24 in Atlanta.

Wow. These are probably the theaters those pictures of only Black Panther showings were from. 

[Barnack]

37 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

A good portion of the views for Infinity War trailer probably comes from multiple viewings from the same people.  Any way to check this for sure?

 

Youtube will count multiple views from the same IP adress as one I think, for non logged account with different machine/ip I imagine it is impossible for them to know.

 

Edit: 

http://www.replayscience.com/blog/understanding-youtubes-view-count-policy/

 

Apparently it is just after a large amount of views from the same machine that it stop counting them to avoid manipulation.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Barnack

[ecstasy]

Sitting in the 2nd row of a packed house. Its 11am. I got here at 10 and still got shitty seats.

[Jandrew]

17 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/black-panther-top-grossing-film-history-at-33-amc-theaters-1085844

 

'Black Panther' Top-Grossing Film in History at 33 AMC Theaters

 

Atlanta, DC, Chicago, Houston, Detroit, New York, Memphis. Bet.

 

They named AMC Southlake Atlanta with 83 showing. Oh yes. Sounds about right.

 

What a great headline. Non box office followers are gonna misread that and get very curious!

 

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Jandrew

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

I mean, go tell that to It

That movie was a total freak of nature that extended back to when that clown hysteria was happening the previous fall (which a lot of people actually thought that was a marketing ploy for the movie), so no.

[The Panda]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Trailer views will always be a useless way of measuring box office potential.

Actual data would say otherwise.

 

I don’t think you can use trailer views as a model to accurately predict grosses.  But they’re the second strongest indicator, next to pre-sales.

[manny1234]

I am glad the X-Men are coming to the MCU so we can have Storm in the Black Panther sequel.

[Lordmandeep]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That movie was a total freak of nature that extended back to when that clown hysteria was happening the previous fall (which a lot of people actually thought that was a marketing ploy for the movie), so no.

 

 

That movie has an absurd number of trailer views on social media and youtube though... 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[Thrylos 7]

IW will easily beat BP worldwide (and the last Jedi too) which is what really matters when it comes to the popularity of a film. The real winner is marvel anyway with a new  flagship solo hero franchise to replace iron man until they decide to reboot iron man. With black panther, GOTG, dr. Strange (part 2 is bound to do better than 1) and another huge hit looming in the horizon with captain marvel it seems that marvel studios will have a very healthy future after the two Infinity gauntlet films and before they decide to reimagine  their universe. There’s still plenty of gas in the tank for this “volume” of marvel films that started with the first iron man. I couldn’t be happier.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, The Mad Panda said:

Actual data would say otherwise.

 

I don’t think you can use trailer views as a model to accurately predict grosses.  But they’re the second strongest indicator, next to pre-sales.

For every IT, you have a no1curr like Unfriended. It's never been a reliable way of gauging potential.

[That One Girl]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That movie was a total freak of nature that extended back to when that clown hysteria was happening the previous fall (which a lot of people actually thought that was a marketing ploy for the movie), so no.

 

Lol @ thinking the trailer views played no part in it.  191M views in 24 hours means nothing to you?

[KJsooner]

Trailer views is a stupid argument. Not a valid metric. I’ve probably watched IW 50-100 times. Maybe more. It’s the same people watching the trailer over and over again 

[Ithil]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Anyways, I had a fun conversation with my mom about Black Panther in the car:

 

Me: "I really regret not getting IMAX tickets for the new Marvel movie this weekend."

Mom: "The black one?"

Me: "Yeah, Black Panther."

Mom: "Have you seen the people going to that? I haven't seen a single white person lined up on the news for it."

Me: ".......Uh, only 40% of the audience is black, mom."

Mom: "Only 40%? It doesn't look it! I don't get why the news is making such a big deal about this movie; yes, they're black, we get it!"

Me: "You need to realize that this is the first major movie with a mostly black cast that isn't a comedy, about crime, or white guilt."

 

"They're black, we get it"

I think they do not get it at all.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Trailer views will always be a useless way of measuring box office potential.

Why do you say that, every study I ever saw show a strong link and ability to predict OW with them.

 

Looking at this:

http://www.boxofficereport.com/trailerviews/owyoutuberatios.html

 

Excel give me a correlation factor between views and OW of 0.84 (that is really high with doing 0 work for genre, release date, theater count nothing, other platform views, etc... while it require a lot of work to not have one near 0 with Rotten tomatoes score for example)

 

I am sure someone that has the views breakdown by market score the emotions (with like/unlike, twitter, comments), use genre/theater count/budget in is model that use youtube views would have a good track record to use trailers views to measure box office potential.

 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Lol @ thinking the trailer views played no part in it.  191M views in 24 hours means nothing to you?

 You're aware half or more of those are generated by feeds that automatically play when you scroll past, right?

[Lordmandeep]

Most Viewed Trailer On Youtube of all time

1. IW 138 million

2. Sing 133 million

3. Minions 125 million

4. SW7 101 million

5. Fifty Shades of Grey 88 million

6. JW 85 million

7. SS 84 million

8. Ultron 82 million

9. SW7 80 million

10. Incredibles 2 79 million

 

 

Its hit and miss really but every movie on there was a massive smashing success 

 

[Deep Wang]

30 minutes ago, Telehilation said:

I don’t think IW is locked for 200m, let alone 210m. No question it’ll make a lot of money, though. 

 

Oh Tele...