Weekend Thread: Weekend estimates pg 38...BP 41.14....WIT 33.31

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

19m. It's been profitable for a while.

Wow, awesome! He really needed that, poor guy's entire filmography is filled with movies that failed to make a profit. 

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Gnomes is locked to make more than Uprising. That thing is going sub 15m. 10m wouldn't even surprise me. Gnomes will probably be high teens. If BP manages something like a 30% drop next weekend and then a 35% drop the following weekend, then it might be able to stay on top for 6 weekends. 

I have Gnomes as high as Smurfs 3 OW wise, that being said Gnomes over PRU DOM is happening.

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Idk about that judging from PRU TC and how bad it looks wouldn’t be surprised at a mega bomb and SG looks unappealing Panther might take the win that week too.

I think it'll be a tight race between all three, I wouldn't be surprised if BP eeks a win against Gnomes and PRU. RPO really did get the best March slot as it's going to be number 1 for sure, Spielberg's first opener in a decade and likely his highest OW in a decade even if it only does $35-50m OW

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I have Gnomes as high as Smurfs 3 OW wise, that being said Gnomes over PRU DOM is happening.

I think Gnomes might hit 80+. The trailer reception is always very similar to how it was for Peter Rabbit when I've seen it in an audience with kids, and they've pimped the hell out of it, attaching it to any movie with a PG rating for months. If PR could do so well, I see no reason for Gnomes to do so much worse. Especially now that WiT isn't providing any stiff competition. 

[HouseOfTheSun]

23 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

Wrinkle in time looked boring as fuck no matter what race  the leads were. If the only thing your movie has to offer is visuals then it better be a Jim Cameron joint.

Wrinkle in time reminds of somebody giving a presentation over something they know nothing about, so they stumble about going off on weird ass tangents without any direction until they run into a string of words resembling an ending. 

[grey ghost]

So much for a nail biter.

 

AWIT got its ass whooped.

Edited March 11, 2018 by grey ghost

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think Gnomes might hit 80+. The trailer reception is always very similar to how it was for Peter Rabbit when I've seen it in an audience with kids, and they've pimped the hell out of it, attaching it to any movie with a PG rating for months. If PR could do so well, I see no reason for Gnomes to do so much worse. Especially now that WiT isn't providing any stiff competition. 

PR had decent reviews, I don’t see this over 50% on RT. However a small part of me can see Storks numbers.

[Cookson]

If Gnomes makes more than PRU 

PRU director gonna have a meltdown on Twitter. 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

PR had decent reviews, I don’t see this over 50% on RT. However a small part of me can see Storks numbers.

PR is teetering right on the edge of Rotten and it might get nearly a 5x multi. Paddington 2 is the best reviewed movie of all time and could barely manage a 3.5x. Clearly reviews don’t matter that much with that audience. Besides, Gnomeo got similar reception to PR and didn’t look any better than Gnomes.

[HouseOfTheSun]

18 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Best 4th Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies

 

Title (Year) — Fourth Weekend Gross (Drop from Third Weekend)

 

1. Black Panther (2018) — 41.1 million (-38.0%)
2. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 36.7 million (-34.1%)*
3. Spider-Man (2002) — 28.5 million (-36.7%)*
4. The Dark Knight (2008) — 26.1 million (-38.8%)
5. Wonder Woman (2017) — 24.9 million (-39.6%)
6. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 21.7 million (-44.2%)*
7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 20.9 million (-39.7%)*
8. Iron Man (2008) — 20.4 million (-35.8%)*
9. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 19.3 million (-46.0%)*
10. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 19.0 million (-46.9%)
11. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 17.2 million (-31.5%)
12. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 16.9 million (22.2%)**
13. Deadpool (2016) — 16.7 million (-46.2%)
14. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 16.5 million (-37.6%)*
15. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 16.2 million (-36.6%)
16. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 15.4 million (-53.3%)*
17. Batman (1989) — 15.1 million (-21.5%)
18. Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 15.0 million (-39.4%)
19. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 14.3 million (-50.6%)*
20. Doctor Strange (2016) — 13.7 million (-22.7%)**

 

*Memorial Day Weekend
**Thanksgiving Weekend (U.S.)
 

Peace,

Mike

CW dropped like a stone. I still wonder what went on with that domestic performance. 

[MikeQ]

Black Panther could already end up at $600+ million by the end of next weekend, and already near a 3 multiplier! It will end up flying well past a 3 multiplier when all is said and done, off of a huge and inflated opening weekend of $202M in February! Seriously incredible.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited March 11, 2018 by MikeQ

[Dementeleus]

10 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

CW dropped like a stone. I still wonder what went on with that domestic performance. 

 

It didn’t appeal to anyone outside the (large) core demo that rushed out to see it. 

[svetlana99]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

Wow! That's almost 0.5A

Do you ever have anything constructive to add to things other than Avatar related topics?

[a2k]

14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

PR is teetering right on the edge of Rotten and it might get nearly a 5x multi. Paddington 2 is the best reviewed movie of all time and could barely manage a 3.5x. Clearly reviews don’t matter that much with that audience. Besides, Gnomeo got similar reception to PR and didn’t look any better than Gnomes.

5x needs 125 dom. i think Rabbit will do 107.5-110, 4.3-4.4x, still amazing. yes, critical reception is over-rated. emoji last year did 215 ww on a 50 prod budget (86 dom).

[MovieMan89]

BP starting to pull significantly ahead of JW now. $6m ahead through the same point with a $12m bigger weekend. 675+ should happen. Also, the 4th weekend hold was better than Wonder Woman's.

[Zakiyyah6]

Woke twitter is being decently obnoxious about A Wrinkle in Time's weak numbers. People calling weak numbers weak is somehow a racist conspiracy. Oh boy.

[SLAM!]

Black Panther is doing very well! That is a very strong hold for a blockbuster!

 

Considering what was against it, such as bad reviews, I'd say A Wrinkle in Time did well this time around, though I think its second weekend will be telling.

 

Distributor Aviron did well to get Strangers: Prey at Night above $10M. Now its total will be driven by how well the horror audience responds in the coming weeks.

 

That's not a preferable hold for Red Sparrow.

 

Game Night had an excellent hold though; that comedy will likely have a little more longevity.

 

I can tell Peter Rabbit was affected by A Wrinkle in Time, but I think it was still able to have a strong hols nonetheless. This will surely pass $100m now.

 

Death Wish is holding on tightly... maybe it can have a total bigger than its production budget.

 

With how close the gross is, I am hoping that Annihilation is able to beat The Hurricane Heist for the weekend.

 

If you had told me three months ago that Jumanji would have stayed in the weekend top ten in its twelth week, I woils have laughed you out of the room. Glad to be proven wrong!

 

As for Gringo... yeowch.

 

Also, The Shape of Water had a nice Best Picture boost, but I'd imagine its boost is nothing like it could've been in years past. At least it's gained three times its budget in America alone.

 

And Thoroughbreds has a higher PTA than half of the new wide releases. I guess that was to be expected given its quality. It'll be interesting to see whar Focus Features does next with the film.

Edited March 11, 2018 by slambros

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

Woke twitter is being decently obnoxious about A Wrinkle in Time's weak numbers. People calling weak numbers weak is somehow a racist conspiracy. Oh boy.

God I hope WiT somehow has a 3.5-4x multi or something just to piss these idiots off. 

[Alexiswills12]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

For some reason people treat Oprah like she's some kind of deity.  She has never been a box office draw and she hasn't really been a relevant personality for about a decade.  

You can’t blame Oprah. The book is just not popular and the movie looks bad.

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, svetlana99 said:

Do you ever have anything constructive to add to things other than Avatar related topics?

I would say so! You have the rest of Jims filmography for starters 😂 I thought it was a cool landmark as only 5 other films have achieved but whatever. I guess people are seeing it as me downplaying BP... but thats not the case.