Weekend Thread | Estimates: AQP 50M, RP1 25M, CKBLK 21.4M, BP 8.4M,

[PenguinHyphy]

2 hours ago, Jay Beezy said:

Is it possible that Sunday’s estimate for AQP is a little low? Get Out dropped 22% Sat-Sun. Estimated drop for AQP is 38%. Surely AQP can actually end up in between.

Get Out has an A Cinemascore I believe. Only a few horror movies have received that rating over its nearly forty-year history. That explains the great holds that it received. The 38% drop on Sunday appears to be a suitable estimation. Split had a bigger Saturday increase percentage and a similar Cinemascore, but it fell 46% on Sunday. 

[Eric Furiosa]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Running numbers with exact drop/holds off the Sunday estimate to avoid rounding errors, I get 97m if AWiT follows Tomorrowland exactly from this day on including the coming M-Th.

 

BUT, if AWiT avoids the catastrophic theater count loss that TL had in Week 6 (it lost 1,100 theaters for part of the week and then 300 more when the 4th of July films entered theaters), and/or gets drops of 45% in both Week 6 and Week 7 (instead of TL's 54.9 and 58.1 respectively) , then I get: 99.6m

And there ain't no way Disney wouldn't leave it in theaters a little longer than it did TL to get that last 400k.

 

So even if AWiT gets TL's weekday holds this coming M-Th (and it should beat them, IMO), it just needs to get sub-50% drops the next two weeks.  If it does, the chances of it hitting 100m are pretty good.

 

So, my official verdict?  AWiT is indeed out of emergency room and is now in the ICU.  Talk to me after next weekend and we'll see if the patient can be sent given a further upgrade.

 (@CoolEric258)
 

[Barnack]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

That statement seems entirely unfounded. That's highly unusual for first sequels to drop across the board OS unless the first was already a flop or studios wait forever between installments (PRU). TR was a mini breakout OS. There should be only potential for growth there, regardless of what would happen DOM. 

I think that will change now that China sequel boost is down, second sequel are a bit rare to have a nice sample size (for a while many released when 3D occured + China, making it safer to growth).

 

The issue for TR growth is China reception, 6.4/10 on douban is quite low, lower than Last jedi 7.2:

https://movie.douban.com/subject/3445906/

 

Since 2016 second sequel international

 

grow:

Conjuring 2: 217.9 vs 182.1

Now you see me: 269.8 vs 234

Paddington: 196 vs 192

Guardian : 474 vs 440

Kingsman: 310 vs 286

 

Many didn't really grew adjusted for inflation here

 

Decline:

Neighbors: 52 vs 120

Snow white: 116.6 vs 241.3

Daddy home: 76 vs 92

Jack Reacher: 103.4 vs 138.3

Ninja Turtles: 163.6 vs 302.1

PRu: will see 212 vs 309 has of now

Alice Wonderland: well....

Greek wedding: well that a 14 year's wait

Not sure if Last Jedi count.

 

Ninja Turtles was a mini breakout OS and the sequel declined a lot.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Get Out has an A Cinemascore I believe. Only a few horror movies have received that rating over its nearly forty-year history. That explains the great holds that it received. The 38% drop on Sunday appears to be a suitable estimation. Split had a bigger Saturday increase percentage and a similar Cinemascore, but it fell 46% on Sunday. 

It got an A- actually but yeah, very rare for a horror movie. A Quiet Place getting a B+ bodes well.

[John Marston]

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

So, how about that Quiet Place?

 

 

We already know it’s a huge hit. Tomb Raider is questionable which makes it interesting to discuss 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I think that will change now that China sequel boost is down, second sequel are a bit rare to have a nice sample size (for a while many released when 3D occured + China, making it safer to growth).

 

The issue for TR growth is China reception, 6.4/10 on douban is quite low, lower than Last jedi 7.2:

https://movie.douban.com/subject/3445906/

 

Since 2016 second sequel international

 

grow:

Conjuring 2: 217.9 vs 182.1

Now you see me: 269.8 vs 234

Paddington: 196 vs 192

Guardian : 474 vs 440

Kingsman: 310 vs 286

 

Many didn't really grew adjusted for inflation here

 

Decline:

Neighbors: 52 vs 120

Snow white: 116.6 vs 241.3

Daddy home: 76 vs 92

Jack Reacher: 103.4 vs 138.3

Ninja Turtles: 163.6 vs 302.1

PRu: will see 212 vs 309 has of now

Alice Wonderland: well....

Greek wedding: well that a 14 year's wait

Not sure if Last Jedi count.

 

Ninja Turtles was a mini breakout OS and the sequel declined a lot.

Good points. Wow, I hadn't realized Turtles 2 dropped that much OS, that was a pretty nasty fall. 

 

I still think a sequel to TR will at least be considered, and I think the decision will be made based on whatever the profit (or lack thereof) turns out to be. 

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Oprah's live action 100m track record is pretty damn solid. Only Beloved and Selma throwing a wrench in there if WiT makes it. 

 

Edit: Oops, nevermind, The Color Purple just missed too. So I guess it's not that solid since it's only like 1 out of 5 atm. 

Edited April 8, 2018 by MovieMan89

[PenguinHyphy]

Tomb Raider's performance is not good. A Quiet Place is probably going to gross more than it globally with a $17,000,000 budget. Just ignore the fanboys because they are highly delusional about its performance. 

Edited April 8, 2018 by PenguinHyphy

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Tomb Raider's performance is not good. A Quiet Place is probably going to gross more than it globally with a $17,000,000 budget. Just ignore the fanboys because they are highly delusional about its performance. 

The OS performance is good, that's not delusion. If the movie had made 100m DOM instead of 60, no one would even be questioning a sequel right now. 

[svenson]

17 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I think that will change now that China sequel boost is down, second sequel are a bit rare to have a nice sample size (for a while many released when 3D occured + China, making it safer to growth).

 

The issue for TR growth is China reception, 6.4/10 on douban is quite low, lower than Last jedi 7.2:

https://movie.douban.com/subject/3445906/

 

Since 2016 second sequel international

 

grow:

Conjuring 2: 217.9 vs 182.1

Now you see me: 269.8 vs 234

Paddington: 196 vs 192

Guardian : 474 vs 440

Kingsman: 310 vs 286

 

Many didn't really grew adjusted for inflation here

 

Decline:

Neighbors: 52 vs 120

Snow white: 116.6 vs 241.3

Daddy home: 76 vs 92

Jack Reacher: 103.4 vs 138.3

Ninja Turtles: 163.6 vs 302.1

PRu: will see 212 vs 309 has of now

Alice Wonderland: well....

Greek wedding: well that a 14 year's wait

Not sure if Last Jedi count.

 

Ninja Turtles was a mini breakout OS and the sequel declined a lot.

i can understand Snow White decline. SW never had sequel potential they defeated the evil queen. Stewart was not there anymore. It was a completely different story. Daddy's Home never really screamed for a sequel neither did Neighbors or Jack Reacher. I believe Alice 2 was another movie that came out to late after the first one. Audience did not really like Turtles 1 and neither did critics could be a huge factor for declines.

Edited April 8, 2018 by svenson

[Avatree]

2 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Tomb Raider's performance is not good. A Quiet Place is probably going to gross similarly globally with a $17,000,000 budget. Just ignore the fanboys because they are highly delusional about its performance. 

Tomb Raider did OK. Yes, the domestic number was disappointing but the film was not that expensive. Under $100M cost, it is not the same price as things like Warcraft (which is still the highest grossing vg movie btw), or Prince of Persia, which were 200M tentpoles. 

 

TR has made it up overseas. Its tripled its budget worldwide so not really a flop.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, svenson said:

i can understand Snow White decline. SW never had sequel potential. Stewart was not there anymore. It was a complely different story. Daddy's Home never rfeally screamed for a sequel neither did Neighbors or Jack Reacher. I believe Alice 2 was another movie that came out to late after the first one. Audience did not really like Turtles 1 and neither did critics could be a uge factor for declines.

Yeah, Snow White, Alice, PRU, and Greek Wedding (lol) all waited too long. If a TR sequel got inexplicably made 5 years from now, then yes I would be completely on board with it decreasing across the board OS. The rest weren't really the "franchise film" type, as you said. TMNT2 though is definitely a valid point and does at least prove that a dropoff OS could be possible for a sequel, even though I wouldn't call it likely. 

[Alli]

I think Jack Reacher definitely had potential as a franchise. The first did 80M (far more than TR). The problem is that the second sucked and it dropped.

[svenson]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

I think Jack Reacher definitely had potential as a franchise. The problem is that the second sucked and it dropped.

Yeah the 2nd one was piss

[Jay Beezy]

24 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It got an A- actually but yeah, very rare for a horror movie. A Quiet Place getting a B+ bodes well.

Cinemascore is also not the most exact science of grading a movie. It’s literally people waiting outside of a handful of random theaters giving polling cards to audience members as they leave, and they may not always care to do it.

[Cap]

2 hours ago, That Ambitious Guy said:

Blockers is a funnier R rated comedy than Game Night and a better film about coming out than Love, Simon

Yes to Game Night

 

No to LS. Both were good, just different genres. 

Edited April 8, 2018 by captainwondyful
Clarification

[Zakiyyah6]

59 minutes ago, John Marston said:

The reason Tomb Raider might not get a sequel is that it is dropping like a rock indicating bad WOM. Thus a sequel should make less. If it had good legs then a sequel would be more likely 

Indeed. If Tomb Raider's reception was good then why didn't it pull a Game Night after opening weekend. It's not like there has been massive hit after massive hit released every weekend.

[MovieMan89]

I must admit, I really don't understand how TR is struggling for a 2.5x multi DOM. It's easily superior to most of the trash video game adaptations of the past and it's not like competition was fierce or something. I'm wondering if maybe there was just too much of a stigma to overcome given it's both a video game adaptation and the franchise that every one associates with video game movies in the first place. I think too many people just assumed it would be trash and just being a decent action/adventure movie wasn't enough to overcome that. Would have probably had to be really exceptional.

 

Most people outside of the 80's kid arcade set never having heard of the Rampage video game is definitely huge plus for it. 

Edited April 8, 2018 by MovieMan89

[svenson]

1 minute ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Indeed. If Tomb Raider's reception was good then why didn't it pull a Game Night after opening weekend. It's not like there has been massive hit after massive hit released every weekend.

Not true. Vikander gets loads of praise. Even seen articles saying Tomb Raider finally found a great Lara Croft. Critics are also singing that song. The story is the only problem people have problems with. In a sequel that would not be the case. Its gonna be a new adventure they take her on. 

[MovieMan89]

Although I do also think the TR marketing kinda screamed "wait for Netflix" to those who might have a minor interest in it, so I am curious to see if it has a strong streaming/rental performance.