Weekend Thread: Rampage 34.5M, AQP 32.6M, ToD 19M, RPO 11.2M, Blockers 10.2M

[AJG]

I just don’t care about Rampage at all. Maybe I’ll see it at cinemas, maybe not. I don’t care.

 

i think we’ve reached the point where people are feeling more and more comfortable to wait and watch big blockbusters at home.

[PenguinHyphy]

I thought that Ready Player One might have better staying power given its second weekend. That estimation seems like an anomaly. The day is still early, so most of the numbers are still in flux. 

Edited April 13, 2018 by PenguinHyphy

[Ledmonkey96]

19 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

RPO may limp to 130M if this hold pans out:

 

Apr 13: 10.8M (3M weekdays, 117.2M Total)

Apr 20: 5.1M (1.6M weekdays, 123.9M Total)

Apr 27: 2M (600k weekdays, 126.5M Total)

May 4: 800k (300k weekdays, 127.6M Total)

Final Total: 130M (3.11x from 3 day/2.42x from 4 day)

 

Theaters are reaaaaaaally going to be starving to fill out screen space come May. It'd be pretty hilarious if Infinity War managed to have 6 screens at midsize theaters  

Heck just looking at how many theaters were dropped this week, 3 movies lost >1000 theaters, and another 7 lost 500 < x <1000 theaters.

[MCKillswitch123]

Sub-30M OW for Rampage would be... well, not good at all. That blows. It's still gonna make money off of its OS performance (China in particular), but yeah, not the hit WB (and I) wanted it to be.

 

A QUIET PLACE   Holy shit, when was the last time that a horror movie threepeated? Cause we're gonna get one now. There's no way AQP doesn't win next weekend as well if these estimates hold all the way through.

 

EDIT: Figured out that Split was the last threepeating horror movie. So, not that long ago . Still, HOLY SHIIIIIIIIIIIIIT

Edited April 13, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[WrathOfHan]

I don't think people are quite prepared for how barren May 4 is going to be outside of the top 3-4:

 

Infinity War: 135M

Tully: 16M

Overboard: 14M
A Quiet Place: 7M

I Feel Pretty: 4.5M

Rampage: 3.5M

Bad Samaritan: 3M

Super Troopers: 1.5M

Isle of Dogs: 1.3M

Ready Player One: 800k

 

Tully is going to benefit from everything that isn't IW being so low. According to iSpot, Lionsgate has only aired Spanish ads on TV for Overboard so far (I got an English YouTube ad earlier). If it wasn't for the empty market, its TC probably would be in the low-thousands like How to Be a Latin Lover. The top ten is only going to get worse the following weekend, too!

Edited April 13, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Mojoguy]

RPO looked way too geeky looking like Scott Pilgrim to get any kind of leggy run.

[Lordmandeep]

um I am unsure if IW will do 100 millon in the 2nd weekend but it will be pretty high I think if WOM is good I think. 

[Ledmonkey96]

4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

um I am unsure if IW will do 100 millon in the 2nd weekend but it will be pretty high I think if WOM is good I think. 

I mean that's almost a 60% drop from it's 300mil OW so /shrug. 

 

And considering how barren the next weeks will be given these estimates? Miracle Season/Chappaquidik/Pacific Rim and RPO might all drop 1k theaters next week. Also Sherlock Gnomes, though I have no idea how many theaters it's in this weekend, the TC tracker on BoM isn't reporting that movie.

Edited April 13, 2018 by Ledmonkey96

[MCKillswitch123]

@WrathOfHan I wouldn't even lock down 100M for Infinity War's 2nd weekend, how high do you have it opening for it to hit 135? I mean, I doubt it drops less than 60% 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

@WrathOfHan I wouldn't even lock down 100M for Infinity War's 2nd weekend, how high do you have it opening for it to hit 135? I mean, I doubt it drops less than 60% 

300M, baby.

[That One Girl]

Avengers OW: $228M

Avengers 2nd weekend: $57M

[Mojoguy]

The Rock's overexposure hurting Rampage, Jumanji still in cinemas

Jumanji is down to 183 theaters this weekend, so its boxoffice run is basically done.

Also being in one movie for the last couple of months isn't overexposure, his last movie before Jumanji was Baywatch last May.

[Lordmandeep]

The 2nd weekend for IW is a great movie-going weekend so if WOM is solid and it appeals to outside the comic book base, that will determine if it finishes around 500 million or 600+ .  

[HouseOfTheSun]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't think people are quite prepared for how barren May 4 is going to be outside of the top 3-4:

 

Infinity War: 135M

Tully: 16M

Overboard: 14M
A Quiet Place: 7M

I Feel Pretty: 4.5M

Rampage: 3.5M

Bad Samaritan: 3M

Super Troopers: 1.5M

Isle of Dogs: 1.3M

Ready Player One: 800k

 

Tully is going to benefit from everything that isn't IW being so low. According to iSpot, Lionsgate has only aired Spanish ads on TV for Overboard so far (I got an English YouTube ad earlier). If it wasn't for the empty market, its TC probably would be in the low-thousands like How to Be a Latin Lover. The top ten is only going to get worse the following weekend, too!

Hidden benefit of moving avengers so late. Nobody had time to take that spot 

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Jumanji is down to 183 theaters this weekend, so its boxoffice run is basically done.

Also being in one movie for the last couple of months isn't overexposure, his last movie before Jumanji was Baywatch last May.

 

Yo I seriously have a question for you.  Why do you never use the quote button?  Do you just not see it for some reason?  Did the mods remove the ability for you?

[Krissykins]

Infinity War needs to open over $250m or I’ll be completely unimpressed at this point 

[dudalb]

35 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Rampage just looked too silly. And definitely not something you need to spend money on with more appealing releases around 

I would bet that lot of people who might have seen Rampage are opting for A Quiet Place instead.

I am skeptical about WOM, but the people in my office who saw A Quiet Place spent a lot of the week raving about how good it is.

I think AQP has a long straw and is definently drinking a lot of Rampage's milkshake...

s

[dudalb]

5 minutes ago, dudalb said:

 

Dammit, I made a mistake posting.Did not mean to quote myself.

 

What I was going to say is that AQP seems to be doing some lethal hunting of it's own. It hurt RPO in RPO's Second Weekend, and is destroying Rampage (in the US) in it's first weekend.

Edited April 13, 2018 by dudalb

[Krissykins]

Rampage under Hercules from 4 years ago. 

 

The Rock may be a draw, but very inconsistently. 

 

Central Intelligence

San Andreas

The Other Guys

Tooth Fairy

Race to Witch Mountain

 

Those are his biggest (non flop), non-franchise live action films. 

 

Only 3 over $100m. 

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

300M, baby.

2 minutes ago, That Ambitious Guy said:

Avengers OW: $228M

Avengers 2nd weekend: $57M

Talk about polar extremes right here (though I'm down w/TOG's OW prediction) 

 

I mean, 300M is a madman prediction (no disrespect to CJohn ), but 75% drop seems a bit much too. I could see it hitting 70%, but not even Deathly Hallows Part 2 dropped that much (it dropped 72%.... which isn't far off, but it's still not 75). Hell, even the 1st Fifty Shades Of Grey "only" dropped 74% (which still puts the "y" in "yikes") coming off a holiday weekend. I'm thinking 65-70% range. Split the difference and it's around a 67.5% drop. Probably O/U that, maybe a little higher.