Weekend Thread | Avengers 2nd Weekend - 114.774 only a 21.5% drop on Sunday

[MCKillswitch123]

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Not so surprising, is it? IW’s Thursday preview gross domestically would win the 20th-26th box office week. I imagine this is true in many markets.

Yeah, but here's the thing: MCU hasn't really been top of the line shit in THIS territory until, well, last year. The Avengers movies did pretty well, but those were the only good comparables to non-MCU superhero performers here in Portugal like the Fox Marvel properties and DC. Mostly because Disney Iberia was in charge of marketing the films, and they did a Godawful job at it. Then, last year, Homecoming did really strong business.... but that's because it was a Sony movie, thus an independent distributor was in charge of putting the asses in seats, and while Spider-Man movies have always done strong business, Homecoming was still noteworthy for MCU standards. Then Disney Iberia straight up let go of marketing/distribution duties altogether, giving them to NOS (one of the country's biggest media operators), and ever since Ragnarok, MCU movies have been massive sellers. But Infinity War smashing the way it did is still beyond comprehension

 

Also, it's hilarious to hear Ms. Randolph say in her videos that Black Panther had weak OS business......... when its OS total is bigger than: the OS totals of any MCU movie not featuring Robert Downey Jr. and the WW totals of 7 out of the 19 movies in the franchise; the OS totals of every single DC movie ever made, including the Nolan Batman trilogy and the DCEU stuff (its OS total is actually only 10M below Justice League's WW total); the OS totals of every single Spider-Man movie ever made; the WW totals of every single Fox Marvel movie except Deadpool and Days Of Future Past (beating both of those films' OS totals as well); and the WW totals of just about every other comic book film ever made (besides Big Hero 6 by less than 10M). When you consider that BP is a solo MCU entry with none of the original Avengers to serve as backup and that African American-led films unfortunately don't tend to do gangbusters OS, the only universe in which that is a weak OS total is that of delusion

[WrathOfHan]

Demo breakdowns from Deadline:

 

Overboard:

 

41% of the audience is Latino, who are 83% positive

59/41 gender split in favor of females

45% of the audience is women over 25, who are 77% positive

 

Tully:

 

87% of the audience is over 25, who are only 71% positive

13% of the audience is under 25, who are 85% positive

 

Bad Samaritan:

 

Only 52% of the audience is positive (lmao holy fuck)

Only 20% of the audience gives it a definite reccomend

51/49 gender split in favor of females

 

Bad Samaritan is going to collapse next weekend, and so will the chances of a sub-1M grosser being in the top 10    

[MovieMan89]

How the hell did Bad Samaritan manage to get such a wide opening in the first place? Can't think of a more perplexing choice for 2k+ since Oogieloves (never forget). 

[harrycaul]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

How the hell did Bad Samaritan manage to get such a wide opening in the first place? Can't think of a more perplexing choice for 2k+ since Oogieloves (never forget). 

Devlin is distributing it himself isn't he?

[The Shrike]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Unless they do something to bring Luke back or get some major marketing gimmick to the film, the next SW won't do anywhere near TFA.  I think it can beat TLJ but not close to TFA.

If you use the increases (20.6 and 25.8%) from the 2nd to the 3rd episodes in the previous Star Wars trilogies, it comes out to between 748 to 780 million domestic, on first runs.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, The Shrike said:

If you use the increases (20.6 and 25.8%) from the 2nd to the 3rd episodes in the previous Star Wars trilogies, it comes out to between 748 to 780 million domestic, on first runs.

Those were much different cases. One was 35 years ago (95% of us weren't even alive to grasp ESB's WOM), and the other had the birth of Darth Vader. Episode IX has no hook whatsoever.

[The Shrike]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Those were much different cases. One was 35 years ago (95% of us weren't even alive to grasp ESB's WOM), and the other had the birth of Darth Vader. Episode IX has no hook whatsoever.

It will make for a good historical comparison though. If it falls significantly below those numbers that would give credence to the argument from some Star Wars fans that The Last Jedi was a bad film. If it's at or above those numbers, their argument falls moot.

[Joyous Legion]

11 minutes ago, The Shrike said:

If you use the increases (20.6 and 25.8%) from the 2nd to the 3rd episodes in the previous Star Wars trilogies, it comes out to between 748 to 780 million domestic, on first runs.

 

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Those were much different cases. One was 35 years ago (95% of us weren't even alive to grasp ESB's WOM), and the other had the birth of Darth Vader. Episode IX has no hook whatsoever.

Additionally, those were both viewed as the end of Star Wars. IX obviously is not, and I doubt they’d find much success marketing it like it was.

Edited May 6, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[Blaze Heatnix]

11 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

Devlin is distributing it himself isn't he?

 

Yes, he is. He basically gave his own money to make the movie.

[a2k]

4 hours ago, GraceRandolph said:

Nah like IronJimbo said a lot of people kept saying how it’s gonna reach 2 billion. And let’s be real here this movie is 10 years in the making it features popular characters like guardians and black panther - the latter which was a huge phenomenon. It also had the highest opening weekend of ALL TIME. If the movie doesn’t reach at least 700 DOM and 2 billion WW it will be a bit embarrassing. I mean even star wars that’s a huge flop WW (compared to global juggernauts like Avatar) reached that number.  

just because you use the word 'compared' you cannot call something else relatively a 'flop'. 'flop' is an objective term defined by finances of a movie. the 3rd biggest global movie is not a flop compared to the 1st 2. for example a movie like say, IT won't even show up in top 100 all-time. That does not make it relatively a flop to the ones above it. In fact, going by the budget, it's even a bigger hit than many above it.

 

nevermind, you are right.

[ZeeSoh]

37 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Yeah, but here's the thing: MCU hasn't really been top of the line shit in THIS territory until, well, last year. The Avengers movies did pretty well, but those were the only good comparables to non-MCU superhero performers here in Portugal like the Fox Marvel properties and DC. Mostly because Disney Iberia was in charge of marketing the films, and they did a Godawful job at it. Then, last year, Homecoming did really strong business.... but that's because it was a Sony movie, thus an independent distributor was in charge of putting the asses in seats, and while Spider-Man movies have always done strong business, Homecoming was still noteworthy for MCU standards. Then Disney Iberia straight up let go of marketing/distribution duties altogether, giving them to NOS (one of the country's biggest media operators), and ever since Ragnarok, MCU movies have been massive sellers. But Infinity War smashing the way it did is still beyond comprehension

 

Also, it's hilarious to hear Ms. Randolph say in her videos that Black Panther had weak OS business......... when its OS total is bigger than: the OS totals of any MCU movie not featuring Robert Downey Jr. and the WW totals of 7 out of the 19 movies in the franchise; the OS totals of every single DC movie ever made, including the Nolan Batman trilogy and the DCEU stuff (its OS total is actually only 10M below Justice League's WW total); the OS totals of every single Spider-Man movie ever made; the WW totals of every single Fox Marvel movie except Deadpool and Days Of Future Past (beating both of those films' OS totals as well); and the WW totals of just about every other comic book film ever made (besides Big Hero 6 by less than 10M). When you consider that BP is a solo MCU entry with none of the original Avengers to serve as backup and that African American-led films unfortunately don't tend to do gangbusters OS, the only universe in which that is a weak OS total is that of delusion

I know you dont take her seriously but even mentioning her in terms of box office is an abomination. She is straight up horrid when it comes to box office projections. Even Mendelson is ten times better

 

For example, she thinks IW will end its run at 1.6 billion when IW will probably be at or close to 1.6b by next Sunday. 

 

She also thinks China will do a total of 200m when its opening weekend itself will be close or above that figure. 

 

At this point I just watch her box office videos for a good laugh

Edited May 6, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[a2k]

Quote

Rounding out the top five is Warner Bros. and New Line's Rampage with an estimated $4.6 million for a domestic cume that is now just shy of $85 million. Additionally, Rampage added $13.7 million internationally, bringing its global cume to $377.9 million with releases in Germany (May 10) and Japan (May 18) in the near future.

Just current os markets will give Rampage the 22 more it needs for 400 ww; in fact will take it to 405. Rest of dom, say 10 more, will give it 405 + 10 = 415. Then 10 from Japan and 10 from Germany+Poland combined will give it 415 + 10 + 10 = 435.

 

425 ww is a lock while 450 is not dead.

[junkshop36]

For Episode 9 I think it does 680-700m DOM and 1.5b WW. 

[Ruthie]

6 hours ago, John Marston said:

Deadpool might not hurt it too much since it can’t get the family crowd 

While IW isn't rated R, is it getting the family crowd?  It's not exactly a family friendly movie.  

[Jonwo]

27 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

Just current os markets will give Rampage the 22 more it needs for 400 ww; in fact will take it to 405. Rest of dom, say 10 more, will give it 405 + 10 = 415. Then 10 from Japan and 10 from Germany+Poland combined will give it 415 + 10 + 10 = 435.

 

425 ww is a lock while 450 is not dead.

Rampage has done solid business and WB's done quite well OS so far considering the top 2 OS films this year are Marvel films. 

Edited May 6, 2018 by Jonwo

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Hey Grace might be bad but after the Solo news that it doubled Black Panther's Presales for the first 24 Hours John Campea is saying it's conceivable Solo opens to $200M on Opening Weekend for the 3 Day lol. Think he's low key salty Infinity War beat TFA's Opening Weekend and has a shot of beating its Worldwide Total.

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Hey Grace might be bad but after the Solo news that it doubled Black Panther's Presales for the first 24 Hours John Campea is saying it's conceivable Solo opens to $200M on Opening Weekend for the 3 Day lol. Think he's low key salty Infinity War beat TFA's Opening Weekend and has a shot of beating its Worldwide Total.

A Han Solo movie being able to open as high as T’Challa? What a joke. 

[MovieMan89]

20 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

For Episode 9 I think it does 680-700m DOM and 1.5b WW. 

Only if audience reception is great. Otherwise it's going below TLJ on both fronts. 

[ZeeSoh]

9 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Hey Grace might be bad but after the Solo news that it doubled Black Panther's Presales for the first 24 Hours John Campea is saying it's conceivable Solo opens to $200M on Opening Weekend for the 3 Day lol. Think he's low key salty Infinity War beat TFA's Opening Weekend and has a shot of beating its Worldwide Total.

John Campea is not as bad as Randolph but he is very bad himself when it comes to Box Office. I wouldnt pay attention to what he says. 

[eddyxx]

About to see this for 3rd time in Imax. This time in a different theater. There's only like 10 seats left not sold!