DEADPOOL 2 WEEKEND THREAD | Spoilers = BANNED INTO OBLIVION | Dp2 125M and 300 WW debut...Asgard Sun update pg 123

[RRA]

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

I kinda get the sense youre trying to troll here. Comedy sequels, especially R-Rated ones, tend to decline from their predecessors, no matter the reception. Add to that the fact that the first one made 363M, a HUGE amount of money and the fact that its OW was heavily inflated which was pointed out by several people already. Matching the first one was never all that likely. Opening on par with it is a great success and nothing else and i say this as someone who really hoped for a 150M+ debut.

This is less a teachable post for that person and more “thankful for what we got” post. Even if what you wrote is completely true within context.

 

[RRA]

54 minutes ago, Quigley said:

$28M is the low end of expectations I think. It looks the movie was hit badly by Deadpool 2's arrival but it is recovering. Even the fact that @Rthanos said it would make $6.5M when it ended up making $7.25M suggests that it has exceeded its expected trajectory within the day (correct if I'm wrong). This means it has been recovering during the day and will continue to recover over the weekend. So a multiple above 4x is not out of the question.

 

 

Can we give IW props for defying us with its legs more than once since it’s release?

[CJohn]

13 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

just previews throwing folks off. 140-145 seemed possible after 18.6 previews but with same true friday as dp1, and 130 not being a lock, there's some mini-meltdown vibe (which will turn into full meltdown if sat does not cross 40).

Anything below 42.5M will probably cause a mini meltdown.

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, harrycaul said:

Wow, that's...rare.

Expect a around 60% to become common.

 

Sully: 57% was over 50.

Woman in Gold was 82%

Jack Reacher 2, Taken 3, A Walk AMong tombstone, had an over 50% audience aged over 50 year's old.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Anything below 42.5M will probably cause a mini meltdown.

Well let's hope it's above the 38m I'm expecting then. 

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

The overall decline of the home media market has made it difficult for sequels to see a substantial increase from their predecessors. Now you need to capture people's imaginations out the gate and hope that they'll want to come back for more.

Not sure about that, it is hard for comedies for sure, but with Internet and Netflix we have many example of recent growth from home media success, Guardian of the Galaxy/John Wick just did it, Pitch Perfect just before that, Jump Street.....

 

There is a bit of destruction in revenues from a shift from buying DVD units to a cheap Netflix account, but in term of volume I am not sure if there was much of a decline and 2017 was bigger than 2016 in the US home ent (for the first time in a while) decline seem over.

 

It was always difficult to see a substantial increase from a big predecessor.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_film_sequels_by_box-office_improvement

 

2017/2016 were not bad year's at all for those, home video era wise.

Edited May 19, 2018 by Barnack

[Zakiyyah6]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Well let's hope it's above the 38m I'm expecting then. 

It's not dropping 28% Friday to Saturday. What have you been smoking? It will drop 20% at most. I'm thinking 15%.

Edited May 19, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[terrestrial]

Shawn Robbins‏ @ShawnRobbinsWho 33m33 minutes ago

 

 

Any thoughts on weekend projections for DEADPOOL 2? I could see it landing closer to $125M based on the Friday number (which would still be a fantastic debut).

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm going with 132.6mil for Deadpool 2. I could be wrong but I just don't see it missing 130mil.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

It's not dropping 28% Friday to Saturday. What have you been smoking? It will drop 20% at most. I'm thinking 15%.

I'm giving it a 10% increase from Friday proper. The first had a 22% increase on an inflated holiday weekend with a breakout OW that was fueled by WOM walk ups. Considering this isn't a holiday weekend like that and this is proving to be very frontloaded so far, I think +10% is being very realistic. Could be worse than that. 

[That One Girl]

$18.6M

$34.7M

$45.6M

$34.8M

 

$133.7M OW

[MovieMan89]

Just now, That One Guy said:

$18.6M

$34.7M

$45.6M

$34.8M

 

$133.7M OW

Good luck getting a 10% higher Friday proper increase than the first. 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Good luck getting a 10% higher Friday proper increase than the first. 

 

Shouldn't be hard given that graduations were going on yesterday, and the first's Saturday could've been partially deflated from people who were waiting on seeing it on Sunday since it was Valentine's Day.

Edited May 19, 2018 by That One Guy

[RRA]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Shawn Robbins‏ @ShawnRobbinsWho 33m33 minutes ago

 

 

Any thoughts on weekend projections for DEADPOOL 2? I could see it landing closer to $125M based on the Friday number (which would still be a fantastic debut).

Yeah it is, and....how many folks were predicting that though? I certainly wasn’t. 

 

If this OW range is fulfilled, I’ll be interested in seeing how it finishes out domestic. More/less/same-ish as the first one?

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, RRA said:

Yeah it is, and....how many folks were predicting that though? I certainly wasn’t. 

 

If this OW range is fulfilled, I’ll be interested in seeing how it finishes out domestic. More/less/same-ish as the first one?

Everyone in the summer game this week answered yes to is passing 125m and yes to it passing 132m. Most answered yes to 140m. So sub 125 certainly wouldn't be expected by much of anyone here. 

[terrestrial]

6 minutes ago, RRA said:

Yeah it is, and....how many folks were predicting that though? I certainly wasn’t. 

 

If this OW range is fulfilled, I’ll be interested in seeing how it finishes out domestic. More/less/same-ish as the first one?

I think @Shawn is the one to answer that to

[MovieMan89]

Really the only somewhat comparable huge R rated sequels we have to DP2 are Hangover 2 and 22 Jump Street. Both dropped from Friday proper on Sat, though Hangover was a Thursday release. 

[Biggestgeekever]

I really don't know why college graduations have become a concern all of the sudden when in the ten plus years I've been following box office, I've never heard that brought up on this weekend.

 

Also, commencement ceremonies happen on Saturday, too.

[Zakiyyah6]

Still don't know if I buy the graduations hurt the film angle. People always use those excuses even when they shouldn't. I don't think that a film that broke a record needs excuses though. I'd be surprised if the film did under 42.5mil today.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Biggestgeekever said:

I really don't know why college graduations have become a concern all of the sudden when in the ten plus years I've been following box office, I've never heard that brought up on this weekend.

 

Also, commencement ceremonies happen on Saturday, too.

Yeah, it's kinda silly. Especially since grad ceremonies can happen on any day, not just Friday (I for example attended one this past Wednesday).