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DEADPOOL 2 WEEKEND THREAD | Spoilers = BANNED INTO OBLIVION | Dp2 125M and 300 WW debut...Asgard Sun update pg 123

By CJohn, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by baumer,

Just got a text from Asgard himself:   DP2 will be about 31.5, IW underestimated and Book Club will have a way bigger Sunday that reported.  
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dudalb Global Phenomenon

dudalb

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1 minute ago, Nova said:

Under $120M OW incoming 

You know, you really need to chill out and not be such a manic depressive. I don't get why 53 means under 120 Million, but 55 is great.

 

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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53m is kinda bad with those preview numbers. Playing super frontloaded in that case, 115-ish would be likely. Really not sure what could have gone wrong here? It's a first sequel to a very well received breakout CBM, marketing was solid, and reviews are even slightly better than the first. There's also been absolutely nothing of real note released for the last two weekends. There's really no reason for a lower OW than the first, let alone 20m lower. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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dudalb Global Phenomenon

dudalb

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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

53m is kinda bad with those preview numbers. Playing super frontloaded in that case, 115-ish would be likely. Really not sure what could have gone wrong here? It's a first sequel to a very well received breakout CBM, marketing was solid, and reviews are even slightly better than the first. There's also been absolutely nothing of real note released for the last two weekends. There's really no reason for a lower OW than the first, let alone 20m+ lower. 

Uh, that this is not a 3 day weekend is not a factor here?????

God, what a bunch of manic depressives. Either on top of the world or in deep depression, no inbetween.

 

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Mojoguy Global Phenomenon

Mojoguy

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Serious point of inquiry: How good were the early projections for the OW of Justice League a week before release?


Did those same projections have the movie opening higher than the sub-100m OW it got? At which point did the JL numbers become surprising?


JL numbers kept decreasing the closer we got to release, until we reached uncharted sub 100m OW numbers.
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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

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4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

53m is kinda bad with those preview numbers. Playing super frontloaded in that case, 115-ish would be likely. Really not sure what could have gone wrong here? It's a first sequel to a very well received breakout CBM, marketing was solid, and reviews are even slightly better than the first. There's also been absolutely nothing of real note released for the last two weekends. There's really no reason for a lower OW than the first, let alone 20m lower. 

 

 

has said many times before, Deadpool 1's opening weekend was inflated thanks to Valentine's Day/President's Day

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Zakiyyah6 Blockbuster

Zakiyyah6

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2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

53m is kinda bad with those preview numbers. Playing super frontloaded in that case, 115-ish would be likely. Really not sure what could have gone wrong here? It's a first sequel to a very well received breakout CBM, marketing was solid, and reviews are even slightly better than the first. There's also been absolutely nothing of real note released for the last two weekends. There's really no reason for a lower OW than the first, let alone 20m lower. 

Only if it has a really bad Saturday, which I doubt. If it somehow opened with 115mil (I can't see it going that low), what went "wrong" is that it is a comedy sequel. 

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dudalb Global Phenomenon

dudalb

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7 minutes ago, REC said:

I'm not as certain as you.  Weren't there rumors that the production budget went over 300m?  Basically stemming from shooting the movie twice.  This doesn't seem like an entirely unreasonable estimate, given that RO had a production budget of 200m, and we know the reshot/scrunched JL cost WB a lot more than they wanted to admit to.

 

If that's true, their break even including marketing costs is what... 450m give or take?  Which means the movie needs BO gross something in the neighborhood of 750-800m to break even.

 

Rogue One would seem to be the target.  RO basically made 1bn WW, for Solo that might be a decent profit.  But if it can't do RO numbers I would think it would be at risk of being the first unprofitable SW movie.

The irony is that one reason Disney green lit the "Star Wars Story" films is it was felt they would be smaller in scale and cost a lot less then the main storyline films. It has not turned out that way.

If the cost is 300 million, then Solo will be the most expensive SW film of all time.

But that figure sounds a little high,I suspect the final cost will be in the 225 to 250 range.

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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115-120 isn't a trainwreck for DP2, but it's certainly not good under any circumstance. If you don't understand why then consider that the only superhero sequels this decade to decrease from their predecessor on OW are Age of Ultron, Apocalypse, and Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance. In AoU's case that's because it was following up the all time OW record. It either had to break the OW record or decrease, so it's not exactly a good comparison. So that simply leaves DP2 in the company of Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance and :apocalypse:

Edited by MovieMan89
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