BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[MovieMan89]

Gap is finally narrowing on MT. May be #1 just in time for the east coast opening. 

[Krissykins]

What was Jurassic World’s preview number? 

 

Can’t find it. 

[a2k]

Predictions:

Deadline 135-150

Thr/Variety 130-140

Mojo 132

pro.BO 129

the-numbers 128

BOReports 124

BOGuru ?

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by a2k

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

What was Jurassic World’s preview number? 

 

Can’t find it. 

$18.5m

[That One Girl]

On 5/31/2018 at 12:43 PM, CJohn said:

That One Guy: VALERIAN IS JEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESUS

 

 

On 5/31/2018 at 12:43 PM, CJohn said:

That One Guy: VALERIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIAN

 

 

what the fuck

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

What was Jurassic World’s preview number? 

 

Can’t find it. 

18.5

63.5 (82 od)

69.6 +9.6% (-15%)

57.2 -17.9%

= 208.8

Edited June 21, 2018 by a2k

[Biggestgeekever]

Final prediction

 

Pre $14M

Fri $37.1M/$51.1M

Sat $42.2M

Sun $33.4M

 

OW $126.7M

2nd $48.1M

3rd $24.3M

4th $13.0M

 

DOM $318M

INT $719M

WW $1.037B

 

I wouldn't be shocked by anything between 100-150, though. Feels like one of the more unpredictable mega openers in recent memory.

Edited June 21, 2018 by Biggestgeekever

[Krissykins]

17 minutes ago, a2k said:

18.5

63.5 (82 od)

69.6 +9.6% (-15%)

57.2 -17.9%

= 208.8

So the preview to weekend was 11.28x.

 

Thank you, obviously FK’s will be smaller cause it’s a direct sequel. 

[Cap]

@CJohn is working on a whole other level when he opens a Weekend Thread.  Screencap that and hang it in MOMA.  Frontrunner for BOFFYs sweep.

Edited June 21, 2018 by captainwondyful

[Brainbug]

From movietickets, because the tracking thread is locked:

 

Incredibles: 45,4%

JW: 39,8%

 

JW should overtake I2 soon.

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Final prediction

 

Pre $14M

Fri $37.1M/$51.1M

Sat $42.2M

Sun $33.4M

 

OW $126.7M

2nd $48.1M

3rd $24.3M

4th $13.0M

 

DOM $318M

INT $719M

WW $1.307B

 

I wouldn't be shocked by anything between 100-150, though. Feels like one of the more unpredictable mega openers in recent memory.

You transposed the 3 and 0 in your WW total.

 

I want to do a couple more checks on pre-sales but right now I think $12-14m for previews with probably a 9-10 internal multi could be anything from $108-140m.   So about $125m as the O/U seems about right.

[Wrath]

Ticket sales around here are a little lower than I (probably optimistically) expected. Hard to calibrate whether its $115M OW underwhelming or $135M OW underwhelming.

Edited June 21, 2018 by Wrath

[a2k]

20 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

So the preview to weekend was 11.28x.

 

Thank you, obviously FK’s will be smaller cause it’s a direct sequel. 

DOFP had done 11.2x (90.8/8.1) in 2014 and then APOC followed up with 8.2x (65.8/8.2) in 2016.

 

I think JW2's fall in preview multiplier will be similar:

15 with 8-8.5x gives 120-127.5

16 with 8-8.5x gives 128-136

17 with 8-8.5x gives 136-144.5

18 with 8-8.5x gives 144-153

Edited June 21, 2018 by a2k
Changing 8-9x to 8-8.5x

[MikeQ]

MT Update (5:20PM EDT / 2:20PM PDT):

 

Incredibles 2: 44.3%

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 41.2%

Ocean's 8: 2.9%

Tag: 1.8%

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 1%

 

Peace,

Mike

[CoolioD1]

57 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

I had no idea Jurassic World elicited such emotional reactions from people. I mean, we don't even have an emoji for it!

if we need an emoji for it here's my vote.

 

Spoiler

 

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

MT Update (5:20PM EDT / 2:20PM PDT):

 

Incredibles 2: 44.3%

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 41.2%

Ocean's 8: 2.9%

Tag: 1.8%

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 1%

 

Peace,

Mike

If I2 is -10% from Wed for 17.8Thu, then that ratio gives 16.6 previews to JW2

[movieboner]

I don't know why everyone wants JW Fail Kingdom to be successful and have a huge opening weekend. It's a bad movie. One of the worst movies ever made. People should be rooting for a under $100 million weekend. 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

If I2 is -10% from Wed for 17.8Thu, then that ratio gives 16.6 previews to JW2

If ticket sales were only for Thur night.  Say if 20% were for FSS then it would be $13.28 etc

 

 

[MikeQ]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

If I2 is -10% from Wed for 17.8Thu, then that ratio gives 16.6 previews to JW2

That could definitely be the case. It is hard to say, as MT is a rolling update of the last 24 hours of ticket sales. I find it difficult to translate what MT means with such specificity. I'm curious to see where it ends tonight, where it is tomorrow morning, and what it translates to for Thursday previews and Friday proper for JW2.

 

Peace,

Mike

[TalismanRing]

It's Chris Pratt's Birthday so  I consider this just slightly relevant enough to post and because 

 

 

[Note the sign is written on by Pratt and say "Nobody can pee here but me")

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by TalismanRing