BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[baumer]

That's a huge Saturday, monstrous really.  A 15% jump from Friday.

[bladels]

Nearly 10x previews. Jurassic franchise is still walk-ups monster 

[a2k]

Using BOR's numbers,

 

FRI - $58.80M (15.3 + 43.5)
SAT - $49.84M (-15.2%/+14.6%)
SUN - $41.36M (-17.0%)

 

- Bump from true Friday is 14.6% vs 9.6% for JW1. APES3 had jumped 12% vs 8% for APES2.

 

- APES3 had also shown a marginally better Sunday drop of 23.0% vs 23.7% for APES2. JW2 Sunday could do something similar by being better at 17.0% drop vs 17.9% for JW1.

 

- If 150.0 holds then 2.65x gives 397.5 total. At that point a push would happen for sure.

Edited June 24, 2018 by a2k

[WrathOfHan]

40 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

This is a PTA over $5,400, which is down just under half from last week’s despite almost quadrupling the TC  Focus should really attempt putting this in 1k-1.5k theaters next weekend.

19 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Good to see this had a massive Saturday

Edited June 24, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Bishop54]

Jurassic Fudge...I love it. $150M looks so much better in headlines than let's say $148.9M. 

[Thrylos 7]

Universal sure was fast to report that EXACT 150 million estimate, let’s see if it holds with the actuals. 

[baumer]

Just now, Bishop54 said:

Jurassic Fudge...I love it. $150M looks so much better in headlines than let's say $148.9M. 

 

They won't need fudge with a near 50 million Saturday.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Universal sure was fast to report that EXACT 150 million estimate, let’s see if it holds with the actuals. 

 

They are giving it the same Sunday drop as the last one.  Does it really matter if it comes in at 150.5 or 149.5?

[Thrylos 7]

Just now, baumer said:

 

They won't need fudge with a near 50 million Saturday.

I don’t get it , isn’t every number an estimate or is it just the sunday number ?

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

to be fair, it's not a fudge if it's an estimate. only actuals can be fudged by definition.

[baumer]

Hereditary declined by 44%, not 38% as reported.

 

6.855

3.80

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

I don’t get it , isn’t every number an estimate or is it just the sunday number ?

 

The Friday and Saturday are estimates but not guesses.  Sunday is definitely a guess based on historical data.  But the Friday and Saturday numbers are pretty much actuals, within a few % points.  They have all the data, but they just don't report it down to the actual dollar.

[Thrylos 7]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

They are giving it the same Sunday drop as the last one.  Does it really matter if it comes in at 150.5 or 149.5?

It seems to matter to universal if they are giving an EXACT 150 million. Hey maybe it even goes up a bit with actuals, who knows, but yeah it does matter for the time being.

 

Anyway good opening, slightly better than what I expected (I thought around 140 million) , now the legs of this thing will be interesting to watch. 

Edited June 24, 2018 by Thrylos 7

[baumer]

5 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

The summer of Toni Collette.  

[WrathOfHan]

Hereditary is locked for 40M now and only needs 800k more for a 3x. Is this the first D range or F CinemaScore movie to achieve a 3x?

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

It seems to matter to universal if they are giving an EXACT 150 million. Hey maybe it even goes up a bit with actuals, who knows, but yeah it does matter for the time being.

 

Anyway good opening, slightly better than what I expected (I thought around 140 million) , now the legs of this thing will be interesting to watch. 

 

It always matters for headlines, except Disney, they don't seem to give a fuck about headlines.

[baumer]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Hereditary is locked for 40M now and only needs 800k more for a 3x. Is this the first D range or F CinemaScore movie to achieve a 3x?

 

Didn't Wolf of Wall Street have a D cinemascore?

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, baumer said:

 

Didn't Wolf of Wall Street have a D cinemascore?

It had a C I believe. I should also clarify to avoid the holidays because almost everything gets a 3x there  

[baumer]

@WrathOfHan never mind, Wolf of Wall Street had a C.