BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[miketheavenger]

So with an opening in the high 140s 400m total isn't dead yet. Hopefully it can manage to get there in the end.

[Valonqar]

3 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Not bad.

Most important thing of all is that it didn't turn into another Solo.

Leave that to Episode IX. 

[CJohn]

Not even 49M Saturday? Fucking FLOP.

[a2k]

43 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

So with an opening in the high 140s 400m total isn't dead yet. Hopefully it can manage to get there in the end.

If JW2 goes over DP1's 363 then it becomes the 3rd biggest non-Disney movie since JW1.

1. Wonder Woman
2. Jumanji
3. DP1
4. SLOP
5. Minions (JW1 came in 2nd with 18 in it's 5th weekend when Minions opened to 116).

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, a2k said:

If JW2 goes over DP1's 363 then it becomes the 3rd biggest non-Disney movie since JW1.

1. Wonder Woman
2. Jumanji
3. DP1
4. SLOP
5. Minions (JW1 came in 2nd with 18 in it's 5th weekend when Minions opened to 116).

 

So it needs to surpass the 412M of WW to get Number 1 in that ranking. Very very difficult but still not impossible.

[CJohn]

It won't reach the 400M, let alone the 412M of WW.

[Brainbug]

Just now, CJohn said:

It won't reach the 400M, let alone the 412M of WW.

 

Youve been wrong on this film before. You will be again

[Krissykins]

If it’s $148m I see anywhere from $370-$400m total. 

 

$1.1-1.2 billion worldwide. 

[eVerYtHING]

13 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It won't reach the 400M, let alone the 412M of WW.

Why not? It would only need a 2.7x to get to 400? Doesn't seem too hard for a Jurassic Park film.

[SteveJaros]

I see JWFK as having an influence on the Comcast/Disney war over FOX. While that has a lot of motivations, one big one seems to be Comcast's worry that it is shut out of the comic book movie market. But if JWFK is big, it may mollify them that the U still has enough franchises of its own to make big movie bank. If it stalls, then the pressure to add the FOX Marvel properties builds and a new bid to beat Disney is more likely.

[Thrylos 7]

3 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

I see JWFK as having an influence on the Comcast/Disney war over FOX. While that has a lot of motivations, one big one seems to be Comcast's worry that it is shut out of the comic book movie market. But if JWFK is big, it may mollify them that the U still has enough franchises of its own to make big movie bank. If it stalls, then the pressure to add the FOX Marvel properties builds and a new bid to beat Disney is more likely.

In that case I hope JW2 does  over 2 billion....😋

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, eVerYtHING said:

Why not? It would only need a 2.7x to get to 400? Doesn't seem too hard for a Jurassic Park film.

some examples,

gotg1 3.53x, gotg2 2.66x (release period changed from aug to may)

sw7 3.76x, sw8 2.82x (release period stayed the same, dec)

apes2 2.87x, apes3 2.61x (release period stayed the same)

ta 3.05x, aou 2.4x (same release period for both)

jw1 3.12x, jw2 ??? (same release period for both)

 

catching fire, mj1 and mj2 all were nov and all had similar multies close to 2.7x but posting smaller numbers like with jw2 and jw1.

so jw1 can on paper to 2.7x+ down form 3.1x+ of predecessor but very unlikely imo.

 

 

Edited June 24, 2018 by a2k

[picores]

So JW2 opening on the level of GOTG2...not bad, not bad. Curious to see if it can match the 389m DOM of the Guardians sequel. Better weekdays but worse WOM (in theory) should balance the thing. 

 

Fuck it. I say 149/401m DOM. Never bet against the dinnos 

[WrathOfHan]

People are forgetting that the studio isn’t the main reason Disney and Comcast want Fox. The international assets and Hulu are much, MUCH more valuable

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

People are forgetting that the studio isn’t the main reason Disney and Comcast want Fox. The international assets and Hulu are much, MUCH more valuable

Especially Sky.

[SteveJaros]

21 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

People are forgetting that the studio isn’t the main reason Disney and Comcast want Fox. The international assets and Hulu are much, MUCH more valuable

 

That may be true in  a technical, pure profit sense, but movies are high-profile and have an impact on brand-building, which is arguably the most important thing to an entertainment company. Ultimately, companies like Disney and Comcast are trying to build brands

 

E.g., even five years ago, when ESPN was gushing money, if Disney had been forced by government regulators to divest of either ESPN or their theme parks, there's no doubt they would have divested ESPN, even though it was making more profit than all the theme parks combined. That's because the theme parks are viewed by the public as the heart and soul of the Disney brand, and thus have an influence that goes beyond quarterly revenues. 

 

Movies have a similar brand-impact, so their importance goes beyond the immediate, technical profits. Plus, the value of other media properties the company owns, like TV and satellite networks, is impacted by the leveraging of these movies across those properties. 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

Edited June 24, 2018 by sfran43

[Krissykins]

Oooh $150m, Fantastic, especially for the headlines. 

 

Wonder what they're estimating for the Sunday drop. Last weekend incredibles 2’s Sunday was -10%. We’ll see tomorrow! 

[nevermore]

Nice. Hope it stays 150 in the actuals.