jack-jack INCREDIBLES 2 Weekend |🏆| ACTUALS: 182.7M OW | O8 19M, Tag 14.9M, Solo 10M, DP2 8.7M, IW 5.4M

[Jake Gittes]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

68M Friday should be good for a 170M weekend or so

155m if it repeats Dory's holds throughout OW. (It stayed flat on Saturday from true Friday.)

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Hmm. I2’s OD over I1’s OW?

[MikeQ]

A $69M Friday for Incredibles 2 would mean a $50.5M True Friday gross, up there with the best of all-time.

 

Best Opening True Fridays (i.e. Opening Friday sans Thursday Previews)

1. Avengers: Infinity War — 67.3 million
2. Jurassic World — 63.5 million
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 62.1 million
4. Marvel's The Avengers — 62.1 million
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 59.7 million
6. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 56.8 million
7. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 53.9 million
8. Iron Man 3 — 53.3 million
9. Furious 7 — 51.6 million
10. Black Panther — 50.7 million
11. Incredibles 2 — 50.5 million
12. Captain America: Civil War — 50.5 million
13. Spider-Man 3 — 49.8 million
14. The Dark Knight — 48.7 million
15. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 47.6 million

Peace,

Mike

[MovieMan89]

TLK's 683m is the mark to beat for the all time first run animation adjusted record. Ironically enough, it's also probably the mark to beat for #1 movie of this summer. 

 

Of course, I2 needs at least 750+ before we could genuinely start talking about it beating TLK's first run admissions. 

[The Futurist]

I think you guys are getting a little over-excited about the end game for I2 : 500-600m really ?

But yup, the mouse wins again at life.

Circle of Life.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, The Futurist said:

I think you guys are getting a little over-excited about the end game for I2 : 500-600m really ?

But yup, the mouse wins again at life.

Circle of Life.

It's making at least 170 with that range, if not more like 190. The chances of a sub 3.5x multi are slim to none given critical/early audience reception, lack of competition, and the nature of animation (Pixar especially). So you do the math. 

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

155m if it repeats Dory's holds throughout OW. (It stayed flat on Saturday from true Friday.)

 

Seems reasonable enough.

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

It's making at least 170 with that range, if not more like 190. The chances of a sub 3.5x multi are slim to none given critical/early audience reception, lack of competition, and the nature of animation (Pixar especially). So you do the math. 

 

jesus dude

[expensiveho]

The signs were there for a breakout. Yet people kept saying "110-130m".

 

Gonna be a fun ride until TLK opens (with "only" 210-220m predictions)

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Seems reasonable enough.

 

jesus dude

All the 100+ animated openers have had 3.5x+ multis, except Shrek 3 and Minions. Not exactly hard to figure out what stopped them. This movie will be liked at the very least by most, and loved by a lot. It has two months where its only direct competitor will be a Hotel Transylvania threequel. Sub 3.5x would be shocking. 

[Jason]

35 minutes ago, salvador-232 said:

For me is Coco all the way but to being honest is more for cultural affinity. It's something else seeing in the big screen a extended family dinner, overprotective grandmother that feeds you to much... Im not even Mexican, but that abuelita could be the abuelita of every Latin American. 

 

And that world, the only thing I wanted to do after watching coco was getting back into the land of the dead. And IMO the emotional moments are really well done, I spent the last thirty minutes crying. 

 

For me it was just something else 

 

Coco really resonated for me and my Chinese-Canadian friends. One of them turned to me and said "I'm sorry, I think this is my new favourite" [CGI animated film over Zootopia], and I was like "no apology needed" (through lots of tears).

 

Obviously some the fine cultural details are different but the broad strokes about the importance of family really resonated with us. And it's a hard thing to explain, but I was really happy to see it explode in China. My mother's family left in the 1950s, and since then China has changed a lot too, with the Cultural Revolution and all of that. But somehow I felt like I could understand exactly why Coco did so well there.

 

Coco is easily my favourite Pixar of the decade, and probably overall but I'd have to give WALL-E a rewatch because it's been a while.

[Chewy]

1 minute ago, expensiveho said:

The signs were there for a breakout. Yet people kept saying "110-130m".

 

Gonna be a fun ride until TLK opens (with "only" 210-220m predictions)

 

110-130 WAS a breakout

 

This is unprecedented

[a2k]

wouldn't say 500 or even going over dory is locked : 160 * 3 = 480 is perfectly feasible at this point.

[That One Girl]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

All the 100+ animated openers have had 3.5x+ multis, except Shrek 3 and Minions. Not exactly hard to figure out what stopped them. This movie will be liked at the very least by most, and loved by a lot. It has two months where its only direct competitor will be a Hotel Transylvania threequel. Sub 3.5x would be shocking. 

 

I don’t think you realize that Incredibles 2 is also far more older skewing and one of the most anticipated sequels of all time.  It seems foolish to immediately predict a 3.5x and basically claim it’s a lock to get there.  There’s a lot of upfront demand.

[Jake Gittes]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Seems reasonable enough.

 

jesus dude

Will be funny if it turns out to be frontloaded and deflates from the insane predictions in the last 10+ pages to like a 160/500 run and movieman's boner was for nothing. 

 

I do think it'll do better but people hold your damn horses

[MikeQ]

13 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

155m if it repeats Dory's holds throughout OW. (It stayed flat on Saturday from true Friday.)

I don't expect it to follow Dory on Sunday, as Father's Day will make for a great Sunday hold.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Jake Gittes]

1 minute ago, MikeQ said:

I don't expect it to follow Dory on Sunday, as Father's Day will make for a great Sunday hold.

 

Peace,

Mike

Dory opened on Father's Day too. 

[Barnack]

22 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

50% drop for O8 wouldn't be that good. Then again, it is FD weekend so it's at a disadvantage on Sunday.

In a vacuum not but for a franchise movie with 4M previews inflating the OW and playing against a mass appeal (with a crowd that play more female than male) 185m opener....

 

Some long time reboot/sequel/who knows how to call them.

 

Blade Runner 2049 with A- cinemascore -52.7% against happy death day and foreigner (quite the different audience, so no competition)

Magnificent 7 with a A- cinemacore: -55.0% against a good competition in Deepwater horizon but that was a 20m opener.

 

50% from O8 B+ cinemascore/high previews figure and the huge competition, do sound close to good for it, I could see a 20m (-52%) easily happening.

 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

I don’t think you realize that Incredibles 2 is also far more older skewing and one of the most anticipated sequels of all time.  It seems foolish to immediately predict a 3.5x and basically claim it’s a lock to get there.  There’s a lot of upfront demand.

That's not how great WOM works. Shrek 2 opened to 160m adjusted with a Wed opening and no 3D/PLF. In other words, it will still probably sell more tickets on OW than I2 will. Didn't stop the 4x multi from happening. This is still an animated movie at the end of the day, and if the WOM is great it's going to do what all animated movies with great WOM do. 3.3x is the worst case scenario. 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Will be funny if it turns out to be frontloaded and deflates from the insane predictions in the last 10+ pages to like a 160/500 run and movieman's boner was for nothing. 

 

I do think it'll do better but people hold your damn horses

Hey, I'm still rooting for sub IW, make no mistake about that. So don't misinterpret this as just some pipe dream of mine. But IW is very much in danger if this touches 180 or higher this weekend. 

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

110-130 WAS a breakout

 

This is unprecedented

It was tracking $130-150m a couple of weeks ago. 

 

Over the last week looking at Fandango & MT with Fandango reports it was out pre-selling WW and SM:HC,  I thought it was clear  $140-150m was the floor.

 

And still these preview numbers a bit shocking.