jack-jack INCREDIBLES 2 Weekend |🏆| ACTUALS: 182.7M OW | O8 19M, Tag 14.9M, Solo 10M, DP2 8.7M, IW 5.4M

[That One Girl]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

That's not how great WOM works. Shrek 2 opened to 160m adjusted with a Wed opening and no 3D/PLF. In other words, it will still probably sell more tickets on OW than I2 will. Didn't stop the 4x multi from happening. This is still an animated movie at the end of the day, and if the WOM is great it's going to do what all animated movies with great WOM do. 3.3x is the worst case scenario. 

 

Shrek 2 had a 3 year wait, not a 13 year wait.  This was also in 2004, where films would generally have far stronger legs.  There’s not really any fair comparisons for this because there’s really nothing like it in terms of comps.  The closest is Finding Dory, but that definitely skewed a lot younger and wasn’t nearly as anticipated as Incredibles.

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

110-130 WAS a breakout

 

This is unprecedented

It was rather obvious to be honest. No big family movies for 6 months, stellar reviews, huge trailer views and hype, nostalgia for the first, and the CBM age now.

[MikeQ]

Just now, Jake Gittes said:

Dory opened on Father's Day too. 

I understand that, but Finding Dory is not an animated film that benefits from Father's Day. The kinds of films that benefit from Father's Day Sunday historically are those that are more likely to attract male audiences (male-centred or action oriented, etc). Toy Story 3, for example, opened on Father's Day weekend and only dropped 13.5% on the Sunday. I expect a drop around there for Incredibles 2 on the Sunday, not a 24% drop like Finding Dory.  

 

Peace,

Mike

[Barnack]

Hard to be surprised by this, but still if this play nearly like an animated movie it will be such a monster.

[Chewy]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

It was rather obvious to be honest. No big family movies for 6 months, stellar reviews, huge trailer views and hype, nostalgia for the first, and the CBM age now.

 

Nah don't tell me a 180M OW for I2 was obvious, No one's downplaying this one

[Jake Gittes]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hey, I'm still rooting for sub IW, make no mistake about that. So don't misinterpret this as just some pipe dream of mine. But IW is very much in danger if this touches 180 or higher this weekend. 

I'm not really rooting for anything. But I think it should be noted that Dory, Toy Story 3 and Inside Out, all of which opened on Father's Day weekend and had great WOM and huge grosses, all stayed flat on Saturday from their true Fridays. 

[That One Girl]

And keep in mind I2 also faces strong competition, JW2 next week and Ant Man 2 a few weeks after.  Then there’s Hotel Transylvania 3 a week after Ant Man (which I think will pull an Ice Age 5 but it’s direct family competition and could hurt I2)

[Empire]

50 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

$68M-$69M

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/box-office-incredibles-2-flies-record-185m-thursday-night-1120477

 

EDIT: DHD says same

Incredible number! Hope it can go Up with estimates. 

[Chewy]

SLJ's legend grows

[JohnnyGossamer]

Father's Day should really help the hold on Sunday too. Thinking $175M+ OW DOM is essentially locked up.

[DAJK]

The lesson I hope disney DOESNT learn from this is to milk the franchise. I don’t want to see Incredibles movies every year, nor do I want spin-off shows like what Boss BAby and Dragons did

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Chewy said:

SLJ's legend grows

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

Nah don't tell me a 180M OW for I2 was obvious, No one's downplaying this one

I was referring to $110M-$130M is a breakout comment. It was obvious I2 would’ve done around $130M-$150M. But agreed by no means was anyone expecting a $180M OW.

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Shrek 2 had a 3 year wait, not a 13 year wait.  This was also in 2004, where films would generally have far stronger legs.  There’s not really any fair comparisons for this because there’s really nothing like it in terms of comps.  The closest is Finding Dory, but that definitely skewed a lot younger and wasn’t nearly as anticipated as Incredibles.

You're forgetting the reason why legs were better in general in 2004: nowhere near as much big new competition as today. We've seen many times in recent years when a blockbuster with great WOM gets most of its run to itself for no big direct competitors, it defies what's supposed to be "possible" for modern blockbuster legs (i.e. Frozen, Guardians of the Galaxy, Force Awakens, Wonder Woman, Black Panther, etc). Shrek 2's only big competitor that summer was Garfield, which adjusts to 110m. Not that much less than what I2's only real competitor will likely make (HT3). It's in a very similar position to dominate. 

Edited June 15, 2018 by MovieMan89

[That One Girl]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

You're forgetting the reason why legs were better in general in 2004: nowhere near as much big new competition as today. We've seen many times in recent years when a blockbuster with great WOM gets most of its run to itself for no big direct competitors, it defies what's supposed to be "possible" for modern blockbuster legs (i.e. Frozen, Guardians of the Galaxy, Zootopia, Force Awakens, Wonder Woman, Black Panther, etc). Shrek 2's only big competitor that summer was Garfield, which adjusts to 110m. Not that much less than what I2's only real competitor will likely make (HT3). It's in a very similar position to dominate. 

 

Are you seriously ignoring Jurassic World and Ant Man as competition?  I mean, you do you man but those both seem like films that’ll target families and older audiences and take a big chunk out of I2’s gross

[MovieMan89]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Are you seriously ignoring Jurassic World and Ant Man as competition?  I mean, you do you man but those both seem like films that’ll target families and older audiences and take a big chunk out of I2’s gross

That's not how animation/PG family fare works. It's its own thing because there are many people who simply don't let kids go to PG-13's. If you don't believe me, just look at how many insane animation multis there have been in the midst of other huge PG-13 competitors. They're not in the same category of main demos. 

[Blankments]

I know we always say "We're in uncharted territory with this opening" but legit, I can't think of anything as out there as this besides TFA's opening. I have no idea how to extrapolate that number at all

[Webslinger]

Using Finding Dory's true Friday multiplier with the current projection for Incredibles 2 would put it in the mid-to-high-150s for the weekend. That would be terrific, even with the inflated guesses at its ceiling after the preview number rolled in.

 

Really, more than anything else, I'm happy that it's an enormous hit and not a years-too-late curiosity that didn't really catch on with a new audience. I know this movie seems like such an obvious slam-dunk hit with how well the advertising, reviews, and properly-exploited nostalgia for the first film had lined up, but it wouldn't have broken out like this if Pixar had bungled some major aspect of the film and/or its marketing somewhere along the way.

[YM!]

My guess:

$68M Friday

$56.7M Saturday (-16.6%, Dory drop)

$48.2M Sunday (-15%, Father’s Day hold)

 

$173M OW

 

However it could also be more frontloaded as well but I think $150M is happening.

 

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

And keep in mind I2 also faces strong competition, JW2 next week and Ant Man 2 a few weeks after.  Then there’s Hotel Transylvania 3 a week after Ant Man (which I think will pull an Ice Age 5 but it’s direct family competition and could hurt I2)

Also true. But at the same time, Dory faces a shitton of direct family competition throughout the months but those films barring Pets were much weaker.

Edited June 15, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Jake Gittes]

Shrek 2 had Prizoner of Azkaban in its third week.