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baumer

Wednesday approx #s from God 12.3 JW...10 Incred2

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32 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

This is the kind of film that is basically extinct now.  It's an adult film, made for adults, that has ageing female stars and is dependent on legs, not opening weekend.  It's a risky movie for sure, but one that will show profit, just not a ton of it.  But it's one of my favourite films of the year and I have recommended it to everyone.  Most people I know have enjoyed it.  It's also funny, timely and it speaks to a generation that doesn't have strong numbers at this site.  It's no wonder most here thought it would go quietly into the night.  

I agree with all of those sentiments. It’s an enjoyable film that deserves all of its success. It has not opened in foreign markets so I have no idea how it will fare overall or how much of a profit it will make. It will definitely find a home playing endlessly on cable television, though.

 

BC also presents the less visible half of the current Hollywood success model. Obviously, there are the big budget spectacle films targeting a WW gross of $300M+. Then there are the BC type of films - films with much smaller budgets aiming for $40M-$60M domestically and where box office grosses, home video and then television rights allow the studio to make a respectable return on their investment. Breaking In, Overboard, Hereditary and Love, Simon are other films in that less visible half.

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1 (1) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Universal $12,271,855 -33% 4,475 $2,742   $193,412,525 6
2 (2) Incredibles 2 Walt Disney $10,231,988 -25% 4,410 $2,320   $384,163,124 13
3 (3) Ocean’s 8 Warner Bros. $1,533,204 -23% 3,656 $419   $105,200,290 20
- (4) Tag Warner Bros. $1,171,111 -22% 3,382 $346   $34,184,864 13
- (5) Deadpool 2 20th Century Fox $657,334 -20% 2,420 $272   $306,287,844 41
- (6) Hereditary A24 $561,027 -20% 2,002 $280   $36,660,659 20
- (7) Solo: A Star Wars Story Walt Disney $552,478 -21% 2,338 $236   $204,414,703 34
- (9) Avengers: Infinity War Walt Disney $346,667 -26% 1,456 $238   $670,737,505 62
- (10) Won’t You Be My Neighbor? Focus Features $288,490 +1% 348 $829   $4,907,362 20
- (11) Book Club Paramount Pictures $198,559 -11% 672 $295   $65,276,922 41
- (-) Rampage Warner Bros. $54,747 -31% 291 $188   $97,727,333 76
- (-) Breaking In Universal $29,760 -35% 223 $133   $45,889,890 48
- (-) First Reformed A24 $29,599 -2% 151 $196   $2,939,524 41
- (-) A Quiet Place Paramount Pictures $28,741 -13% 215 $134   $186,950,267 83
- (-) Pandas IMAX Films $25,643 -13% 35 $733   $2,473,143 83
- (-) Hotel Artemis Global Road $16,847 -9% 163 $103   $6,607,285 20
- (-) Life of the Party Warner Bros. $15,584 -14% 188 $83   $52,290,088 48
- (-) Ready Player One Warner Bros. $14,434 -11% 162 $89   $136,870,926 91
- (-) Show Dogs Global Road $13,965 -4% 135 $103   $17,338,532 41
- (-) Upgrade BH Tilt $13,785 -20% 101 $136   $11,530,020 27
- (-) A Wrinkle in Time Walt Disney $12,756 +3% 90 $142   $100,416,303 111
- (-) 2001: A Space Odyssey Warner Bros. $12,676 -25% 5 $2,535   $57,755,408 18,349
- (-) Black Panther Walt Disney $9,023 -4% 115 $78   $699,773,357 132
- (-) Isle of Dogs Fox Searchlight $7,466 -12% 69 $108   $31,819,305 97
- (-) The Miracle Season LD Entertainment $2,527 -9% 30 $84   $10,217,401 83
- (-) Super Troopers 2 20th Century Fox $1,471 -8% 36 $41   $30,592,188 69
- (-) Chappaquiddick Entertainment Studi… $251 -30% 8 $31   $17,382,570 83
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1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

If FK reaches 1.2B, is that going to be better/worse/same drop as TLJ?

 

1 hour ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

I think a bit better. Since TLJ couldn’t rely on China and it failed there anyway.

 

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

Way better.

 

That'll be a 25% drop.

TLJ -35%

 

56 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

JW:FK:  -28.3%

TLJ:  -35.4%

 

 

The enormous drop in China from  $124m to $42m adds a couple of % points to that SW drop - without that it would be a 31% drop.

Considering only dom #s, the drop goes worst from TFA->TLJ to JW->FK

936.7M -> 620.2M (-33.8%)

652.3M -> 400M (-38.7%)

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1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

If FK reaches 1.2B, is that going to be better/worse/same drop as TLJ?

Nearly identical WW-China 34% drop, but TLJ was about -65% in China and FK will be +10% or so.

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5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Nearly identical WW-China 34% drop, but TLJ was about -65% in China and FK will be +10% or so.

SW collapse in China, and Asia in general (minus Japan) and Latin America is complete embarrassment, there's no way around it. 

 

@meriodejaneiro Thanks for the breakdown! :)

Edited by Valonqar
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2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Titanic was just an amazing gamble. That genre was literally dead and Titanic didn't revive it but became a one-off sensation. I guess studios were scared of the risk still. 

 

Ditto Great Gatsby. It did amazing but didn't set the trend of lavishly-produced counter-programming to summer blockbusters.

 

It did brought some copy-cat like most major success will do, love story told among a big well known historical event with a bit of action were green light just after, Micheal Bay Pearl Harbor being maybe the best known example (they event used some of the set than Titanic I think). Gladiator first draft appear just after Titanic also, not sure if it was 100% coincidence.

 

Great Gatsby is one of the biggest best-seller and most loved book of all time:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_books

 

A bit above Hunger Games/Fault in our stars, a over 100m budget movie like Great Gatsby (or Life of Pi) would be hard to greenlight without being based of books with a giant world fanbase and it will be hard to set a trend. A better production value Murder on the Orient express would have been close I guess.

Edited by Barnack
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6 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

And some people complain about todays movies quality...LOL, every single film there is atleast mediocre (id say all are bad) apart from Apollo 13.

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5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

It did brought some copy-cat like most major success will do, love story told among a big well known historical event with a bit of action were green light just after, Micheal Bay Pearl Harbor being maybe the best known example (they event used some of the set than Titanic I think). Gladiator first draft appear just after Titanic also, not sure if it was 100% coincidence.

 

Great Gatsby is one of the biggest best-seller and most loved book of all time:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_books

 

A bit above Hunger Games/Fault in our stars, a over 100m budget movie like Great Gatsby (or Life of Pi) would be hard to greenlight without being base of book with a giant world fanbase and it will be hard to set a trend. A better production value Murder on the Orient express would have been close I guess.

Poirot franchise is a good example of counterprogramming targeting older crowd (that younger ones can enjoy too). 

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Year Gross* 2018
% change
2017
% change
2016
% change
2015
% change
2014
% change
2013
% change
2018 $6,029.9 - +9.1% +9.4% +10.5% +18.5% +18.1%
2017 $5,525.8 -8.4% - +0.3% +1.2% +8.5% +8.2%

 

We are 9,1% or 500M+ ahead of 2017 at the same point. Considering the death that was August and October 2017, 2018 is in a really good position to prevent any articles declaring the doom of cinema at the end of the summer and year.

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3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
Year Gross* 2018
% change
2017
% change
2016
% change
2015
% change
2014
% change
2013
% change
2018 $6,029.9 - +9.1% +9.4% +10.5% +18.5% +18.1%
2017 $5,525.8 -8.4% - +0.3% +1.2% +8.5% +8.2%

 

We are 9,1% or 500M+ ahead of 2017 at the same point. Considering the death that was August and October 2017, 2018 is in a really good position to prevent any articles declaring the doom of cinema at the end of the summer and year.

There's a pretty decent chance at passing 2016's record as well, though the end of the year doesn't have anything like TFA all the little movies should add up nicely.

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48 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

And some people complain about todays movies quality...LOL, every single film there is atleast mediocre (id say all are bad) apart from Apollo 13.

That is true, but you still had Braveheart, Crimson Tide, the Die hard with Sam Jackson and Bad Boys in wide release to see that weekend if you wanted.

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