Tuesday's Numbers (JW 11.9, I2....10.2....Purge 2.5 previews)

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Moviefanatic said:

And Shrek 5....lol. I enjoyed the 4th one but yea...no. 

18 year's after the first one/14 after Shrek 2 monster performance too, people that enjoyed the first one now have kids to see it with, a dangerous box office dynamic.

[Jim Shorts]

2 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

 

I'd say Toy Story 4 will, even if it's just to 501M.

Maybe Frozen 2 if they really make a good story and not just a "let's milk the cow" with a part 2 whatever. 

And definitely Shrek 5 will, if that's happening (again, with a good script, what i'm sure they will do if they get into that ship).

Even Frozen 2 is not a gimmey for $400m.  If it's anything like that abomination they put in front of Coco, it's not gonna get anywhere close.  I don't want 90 minutes of Olaf, almost as annoying as Jar Jar or Mater IMO. 

[korrasami]

I still hope I2 miraculously gains fantastic legs later in its run, so it can get 600M domestic

[Moviefanatic]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

18 year's after the first one/14 after Shrek 2 monster performance too, people that enjoyed the first one now have kids to see it with, a dangerous box office dynamic.

Oh nostalgia is the reasoning. Still don’t see it though 

[Jim Shorts]

Shrek 3 was doodoo.  Shrek 4 was just okay.   I could still see it pulling in Despicable Me 3 numbers though. 

[Jim Shorts]

5 minutes ago, korrasami said:

I still hope I2 miraculously gains fantastic legs later in its run, so it can get 600M domestic

Unfortunately, I think Hotel Transylvania is going to kill any chance it has of $600M.

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, Moviefanatic said:

Oh nostalgia is the reasoning. Still don’t see it though 

Oh yes, the high prediction come from Jurassic World/Beauty and the Beast/It/Jumanji/long list type of performance. Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull for all the negativity surrounding it in some part of the Internet, did over 400m adjusted and 786m worlwide in 2008 (918m today).

 

 

[YM!]

1 hour ago, Chaz said:

It has the entire month of July to itself.

It’s in the middle of the Pets and The Lion King and after shitton of family films in May (Uglydolls, Aladdin, Pikachu and Minecraft). To add on top of that, it’s an unwanted sequel.

[Yandereprime101189]

1 hour ago, Chaz said:

It has the entire month of July to itself.

 

About that. . . .

 

 

[poweranimals]

So no update from BOM today, huh?

[dxmatrixdt]

11 hours ago, La Binoche said:

 

Please be sure to wish mother a happy birthday.

[dxmatrixdt]

1 hour ago, Moviefanatic said:

Are people serious about these TS4 and Shrek 5 500 million predictions? This as bad as people predicting 200+ OW for GOTG3. 

 

I guess an argument can be made for TS4 but personally it seems like a sequel that nobody was begging for. TS3 was the perfect ending.

 

And Shrek 5....lol. I enjoyed the 4th one but yea...no. 

I remember seeing those trailers for Minions after Jurassic World's OD and thinking, oh crap, another 200/500 one is rolling out this summer.

[baumer]

First Purge is a good prequel.  It takes a while to get into it but once it does, it's quite good.  My theatre was pretty busy tonight.  The 10 pm show was about 75% full.

[FilmBuff]

I’m surprised Antman didn’t open up on the 3rd, take advantage of the holiday/weekend. Missed opportunity!

[dxmatrixdt]

Tuesday - Purge - ($2,500,000)/(2,350 locations)/($9.16) = roughly 116 purchases/location.  

Double this average today to ~232 for 6.44m Wednesday.  ~9m w/ previews.  

Jurassic World 2 averaged 295 purchases/location @ $9/purchase full Tuesday vs Purge 4 w/ 116.

Incredibles 2 averaged 257 @ $9/purchase

 

Assuming Purge = Jurassic World Tuesday night starting at 7pm w/ purchases average in this scenario, then Jurassic World would have sold the rest before 7p.m. which would have been ~179 purchases/location.  

179 tickets up to 7p.m. and 116 tickets after means Jurassic World (179 purchases before pm/295 purchases full Tuesday) = about 61% of sales happening before 7p.m.  I think....  Not sure if I should think this one through, or submit reply.  hmm, what about the other 50 movie numbers

[dxmatrixdt]

                           M      T                 W      Th             F        S        S

Ant-Man and the Wasp                         10.0 ------ 25.0 + 30.0 + 24.0 - 79.0 (new) 89.0

The First Purge                    2.5     8.5    + 6.0 ------ 6.0 + 7.0 + 5.0 - 18.0 (new) 35.0

Jurassic World - 8.6 + 11.9 (+3%) 12.2 + 8.6 ------ 8.6 + 11.0 + 8.4 - 28.0 (-54%) 335.0

Incredibles 2   - 7.7 +  10.2 (+8%) 11.0 + 7.7 ------ 8.1 + 10.2 + 8.1 - 26.4 (-43%) 503.6

Sicario 2           - 2.2 +  2.6 (+38%) 3.6 + 2.4 ------  2.4 + 3.2 + 2.5  -  8.1 (-57%) 37.9

Uncle Drew      - 1.8  + 2.5 (+8%)   2.7 + 2.0 ------  2.0  + 2.5 + 1.8 - 6.3 (-59%) 30.5

Ocean's 8        -  1.4  + 1.8 (+33%) 2.4 + 1.5 ------  1.6  + 2.0 + 1.5 - 5.1 (-39%) 127.2

TAG                 -  1.0  + 1.2 (+0%)    1.2  + 1.0 ------ 1.0  + 1.2  + 1.0 - 3.2 (-46%) 48.8

Deadpool 2     -  0.6  + 0.7 (+14%) 0.8 + 0.6 ------- 0.6 + 0.7  + 0.5 - 1.8 (-50%) 315.00

Solo: Star Wars - 0.5 + 0.6 (+17%) 0.7 + 0.5 ------- 0.5 + 0.6  + 0.4 - 1.5 (-44%) 211.5

Hereditary      -  0.43 + 0.44 (-9%) 0.4 + 0.3 ------- 0.3  + 0.4  + 0.3 - 1.0 (-56%) 42.0

Infinity War    -  0.29 + 0.36 (+11%) 0.4 + 0.3 ------ 0.4 + 0.4  + 0.2  - 1.0 (-35%) 675.00

[miketheavenger]

People underestimate just how big Shrek used to be. Shrek 2 held the domestic animated record for 12 years. Not even TS3 or Frozen could reach it despite having years of inflation and 3D. And thanks to the Shrek is love, Shrek is life memes the franchise is still in people's minds. IMO a really good Shrek 5 could definitely do Incredibles 2 numbers (at least domestically).

[dxmatrixdt]

weekday predicts (7/9 - 7/12) 

Ant-Man & Wasp - 44 - 133

Jurassic World - 16.6 - 351.6

Incredibles 2 - 16.6 - 520.2

First Purge - 10.0 - 45.0

Sicario 2 - 4.5 - 42.4

Uncle Drew - 3.8 - 34.3

Ocean's 8 - 2.9 - 130.1

TAG - 1.8 - 50.6

Deadpool 2 - 1.0 - 316.0

Solo: Star Wars - 0.8 - 212.3

Hereditary - 0.8 - 42.8

Infinity War - 0.4 - 675.4

 

weekend predicts (7/13-7/15) 

Skyscraper - 44.5 - 48.0

Hotel Tran 3 - 31.0 - 33.2

Ant-Man 2 (-51%) 44.0 - 177.0

Jurassic World (-41%) 16.6 - 368.2

Incredibles 2 (-44%) 14.9 - 535.1

First Purge (-50%) 9.0 - 54.0

Sicario 2 (-51%) 4.0 - 46.40

Uncle Drew (-46%) 3.4 - 37.7

Ocean's 8 (-43%) 2.9 - 133.0

TAG (-50%) 1.6 - 52.2

Deadpool (-44%) 1.0 - 317.0

Solo (-47%) 0.8 - 213.1

Hereditary (-30%) 0.7 - 43.5

Infinity War (-40%) 0.6 - 676.0

 

(7/20-7/22)

Spoiler

Mamma Mia - 30.0 - 33.0

Equalizer 25.0 - 27.5

Skyscraper -50% - 24.4 - 96.0

Ant-Man 2 -45% - 24.4 - 225.0

Hotel Tran 3 -37% - 21.0 - 75.2

Jurassic World -46% - 9.0 - 387.2

Incredibles 2 -40% - 9.0 - 554.1

Purge 4 -50% - 4.5 - 63.5

Sicario 2  -50% - 2.0 - 51.0

Uncle Drew -47% - 1.8 - 41.5

Ocean's 8 -45% - 1.6 - 136.4

 

TOTALS  

TAG - 55

DP2 - 320

Solo - 216

Hereditary - 45

Infinity War - 677.5

 

Edited July 5, 2018 by mathemetrics

[mahnamahna]

Excellent for Jurassic World 2 - a $28-32 million 3rd weekend against Ant-Man 2's OW would be excellent. $335-340 million DOM after 17 days makes $400-420 million DOM pretty likely. If it gets a 40-45% drop against Skyscraper and a sub-40% drop the following week, $400 million DOM is a lock. 

 

Solid for Incredibles 2 - $600 million DOM isn't going to happen, but $575-585 million DOM is a distinct possibility. Ant-Man 2, Hotel Transylvania and Teen Titans are all targeting its secondary primary audiences (Ant-Man 2 targeting both its main demos). While it will likely get a boost from Christopher Robin double-features and the typical Labor Day expansion good for a $2.5-3.5 million 4-day, that won't be enough for $600 million DOM, I don't think. 

 

Purge is doing fine. It'll likely do enough for a fifth to be greenlit. 

 

Uncle Drew is holding solidly, I think it'll likely do $50-60 million DOM. Same goes for Sicario 2. 

 

Ocean's 8, Tag and Deadpool 2 are all holding strong late in their runs. MoviePass seems to be increasing the likelihood of people going to see mid-level films in theaters and just late legs of well-liked movies in general. 

 

Solo is almost done. Hereditary has had spectacular legs despite its D CinemaScore. 

 

Won't You Be My Neighbor? keeps impressing me. I hope Focus gets it into 900-1,200 theaters for this weekend. I'd like to see it do $20 million+ DOM. 

 

 

 

 

 

[EmpireCity]

2.2

2.1

9.2

1.2

11.4

800

9.4

2.6