Best Popular Film Predictions - 2018 (New Oscar Category)

[Ethan Hunt]

Crazy Rich Asians please

[Rorschach]

My Rough Predictions:

 

Black Panther (will probably win and most likely the reason this category was even created in the first place)

Crazy Rich Asians

Incredibles 2 (assuming animated movies will count for this too?)

Mission: Impossible - Fallout

A Quiet Place

 

[Barnack]

Hard to make a prediction without the category and mechanism detailled, i.e. does making in the BP will remove you from this category, that would remove some of the vote split fear I already voted for this to win in most popular will not do it in BP, etc.... That could change a prediction for a Black Panther if that happen.

 

If First Man end up popular it could be really hard to beat.

[Rorschach]

9 hours ago, Barnack said:

Hard to make a prediction without the category and mechanism detailled, i.e. does making in the BP will remove you from this category, that would remove some of the vote split fear I already voted for this to win in most popular will not do it in BP, etc.... That could change a prediction for a Black Panther if that happen.

 

If First Man end up popular it could be really hard to beat.

I was spitballing. Idk how they’ll define the specifics for this stupid category.

[DAJK]

So like, what happens when we get another American Sniper... something that was intended for BP category but ended up being insanely popular.

[CoolioD1]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

So like, what happens when we get another American Sniper... something that was intended for BP category but ended up being insanely popular.

i said this in the other thread but american sniper didn't even go wide until after its oscar nominations so it probably wouldn't be eligible. but sure if A Star Is Born breaks out huge and makes $200 mil or something it'll probably just win both and make this category look even more pointless. i kinda hope that happens because that'll probably just make them wanna scrap it next year more than if black panther wins like it's supposed to. 

[Barnack]

18 minutes ago, DAJK said:

So like, what happens when we get another American Sniper... something that was intended for BP category but ended up being insanely popular.

 

There is many possible way that category will play out.

 

It is possible that getting in BPicture will remove your ballot in best popular.

It is possible who get in most popular will be a committee that will take intention into a account, or moreso how hard it is to get into BP historically for the genre, and just name the type of movie that has no shot at winning BP in best popular.

 

Or maybe they will not take it into account, openning the door to many strange things.

 

Like say having just one Bpicture in the Best popular movie list and not winning would look really straneg

Having the one BP in Best popular always winning would look pointless....

 

 

[CoolioD1]

they've already said movies can be eligible for best picture and best popular film.

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

they've already said movies can be eligible for best picture and best popular film.

They already made clear that being popular/illegible for best popular would in no way affect the ability to get in best picture.

 

I am not sure it was clear for the other way around. Historically it never hurt, movie got in BP and were still available winning Animation and so on, so it is the expected case.

[The Panda]

Kind of thinking this cat looks like

 

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

First Man

A Quiet Place

A Star is Born

 

All of which are movies that would have had decent BP chances or other big nods anyways.

[titanic2187]

Instead of 5, i think this category will only have 3 nominees.....as the number of films eligible for this category will be little.

 

For animated feature category, at least they include many foreign language animation in the list, but I doubt any foreign film would be that popular to be eligible.....

[Cap]

On 9/1/2018 at 3:49 PM, PANDA said:

Kind of thinking this cat looks like

 

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

First Man

A Quiet Place

A Star is Born

 

All of which are movies that would have had decent BP chances or other big nods anyways.

I think you elude to an excellent point that this category will produce some fun fraud.  films whose best picture chances died out early, etc will switch over to here.

 

 

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

LOL

 

 

[filmlover]

Hilarious. Clearly Crazy Rich Asians, A Star is Born, and First Man all emerging as strong challengers to what was supposed to easily be Black Panther's Oscar made them rethink whatever strategy they had.

[75Live]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Hilarious. Clearly Crazy Rich Asians, A Star is Born, and First Man all emerging as strong challengers to what was supposed to easily be Black Panther's Oscar made them rethink whatever strategy they had.

 

does this mean they will just give BP a BP nod just to appease the people just like they were going to do with the Best Popular since apparently that is why they came up with the award in the first place, according to some people?

 

If so, doesn't that really make the nomination kind of meaningless?

 

I really don't think the Academy has any idea of what it's doing regardless 😛 

[Barnack]

Just now, 75Live said:

does this mean they will just give BP a BP nod just to appease the people just like they were going to do with the Best Popular

The small group of people at the head of the Academy that were going to make the best popular category is a different one than the 8,000 voters (don't remember the exact number, but giant numbers), many of new that have been involved in 0 popular movie in there life and not Americans.

 

Unlike the globes (80 voters that hang around together and decide stuff together), that giant heterogeneous group of voters is not that coordinated and does not tend to do anything to appease people, we are talking about a group that nominated 20 white actor the year after #oscarsowhite. Many have paid to be a member and from time to time helped for free the Academy a large part of their life and really do not like to be told how to vote, that why they change the rules to try to change the outcome.

[CoolioD1]

i think the issue is not enough popular movies were released this year.