CAPTAIN MARVEL | 701.4 M overseas ● 1128.3 M worldwide

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, peludo said:

Let's make some quick numbers:

 

18-24th March week: China has done $14m, so OS-China week has been 93-14=79m.

11-17th March week: China did $43m, so OS-China was: 192-43=149m.

So, OS-China drop week-to-week has been about 47% (whole week, not just weekend).

thank you very much for explain to me  good then for captain marvel

[cdsacken]

Yep that's awesome. Still think 700 OS and 410 DOM+ is likely.

[ZeeSoh]

29 minutes ago, peludo said:

Let's make some quick numbers:

 

18-24th March week: China has done $14m, so OS-China week has been 93-14=79m.

11-17th March week: China did $43m, so OS-China was: 192-43=149m.

So, OS-China drop week-to-week has been about 47% (whole week, not just weekend).

Lol I was just doing the calculations too. 

 

Overall

Last week (11-17 march) - 193

This week (18-24 march) - 93

Drop - 51.8%

 

China

Last  week - 43

This week - 14.44

Drop - 66.4%

 

Without China

last week - 150

this week - 78.56

drop - 47.62%

 

But Japan opened last weekend so its numbers would skew this weeks numbers so we must eliminate that too. 

 

Without China and Japan

last week - 146.2

this week - 71.06

drop - 51.4%

 

It is currently 111m away from 700m OS.it did 93m this week. So to get to 700m OS it needs 45% drops or better week on week from this point onwards. 

 

Good news is China wont drop as harshly as before and Japan is a fairly leggy market as well. US is also not a very big competition overseas. 

 

Generally drops gets better as you go deeper into the run unless you run into heavy competition. I doubt Dumbo would be a huge competition but Shazam will cause a dent especially in Latin markets. 

 

So 700 is not locked by any means and CM may miss it. But why is 700 so important? It isnt any particular milestone. 

Edited March 24, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[cdsacken]

Well 1.1 million would be amusing to see so many people cry about it. I mean I like Aquaman more but seeing that beat would be hilarious too 

[peludo]

11 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

So 700 is not locked by any means and CM may miss it. But why is 700 so important? It isnt any particular milestone. 

People ask and I try to answer. That's all

Edited March 24, 2019 by peludo

[ZeeSoh]

9 minutes ago, peludo said:

People ask and I try to answer. That's all

Oh that wasn’t directed at you. I saw people talking about that number in the last 2 pages and I dont understand the fascination with that number (beyond it being a nice round number). 

[Valonqar]

26 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

So 700 is not locked by any means and CM may miss it. But why is 700 so important? It isnt any particular milestone. 

It is important for my CM Over IX Club. IX won't make 700M cause it doesn't have markets for that. SW is dead in LA and Asia minus Japan, so under CM OS for sure. Since I expect IX to make more than CM dom (my 600M CM finish is pipe dream now, don't laugh I thought it would get there), I need CM to pass 700M to close the gap opened by IX's dom advantage. 

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

beyond it being a nice round number

That’s actually the full extent of it 😛 

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

It is important for my CM Over IX Club. IX won't make 700M cause it doesn't have markets for that. SW is dead in LA and Asia minus Japan, so under CM OS for sure. Since I expect IX to make more than CM dom (my 600M CM finish is pipe dream now, don't laugh I thought it would get there), I need CM to pass 700M to close the gap opened by IX's dom advantage. 

Whether it hits 710 or 690 OS doesn’t impact your club much. The WW will be ~1.1, so it’s mostly down to IX from here

[peludo]

36 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Oh that wasn’t directed at you. I saw people talking about that number in the last 2 pages and I dont understand the fascination with that number (beyond it being a nice round number). 

Maybe each dollar is needed to try to reach Aquaman/Civil War WW, although I do not see it possible yet (thinking in 410/710/1.12b)

[movieboner]

Aquaman over Captain Marvel worldwide?

[Valonqar]

38 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Whether it hits 710 or 690 OS doesn’t impact your club much. The WW will be ~1.1, so it’s mostly down to IX from here

true though if it's photofinish, every penny counts. 

[XXR vs XXR]

48 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

It is important for my CM Over IX Club. IX won't make 700M cause it doesn't have markets for that. SW is dead in LA and Asia minus Japan, so under CM OS for sure. Since I expect IX to make more than CM dom (my 600M CM finish is pipe dream now, don't laugh I thought it would get there), I need CM to pass 700M to close the gap opened by IX's dom advantage. 

I'm curious why you think IX can't make 700m OS? VII made $1.1b+ and even with a less than stellar reception, VIII made $712m. Your rationality doesn't really make sense. 

[Johnny Tran]

Will this pass Aquaman and Civil War?  It's looking to me like $415M domestic and $720M OS.  That's $1.135B.   

 

What do y'all think? 

[john2000]

Just now, Johnny Tran said:

Will this pass Aquaman and Civil War?  It's looking to me like $415M domestic and $720M OS.  That's $1.135B.   

 

What do y'all think? 

i would say lets wait for it to hit 1 billion and then we will see and also have a better idea where it will end up

[Fake]

Quite a large drop this weekend.

 

After weekdays, CM will be at 940M or so.

 

Next weekend should do around 45-50M WW.

 

1.1B looks a bit difficult as of now. I'd say something around 1.08B (400M DOM + 680M OS). Fantastic run, nonetheless.

[Johnny Tran]

3 minutes ago, Fake said:

Quite a large drop this weekend.

 

After weekdays, CM will be at 940M or so.

 

Next weekend should do around 45-50M WW.

 

1.1B looks a bit difficult as of now. I'd say something around 1.08B (400M DOM + 680M OS). Fantastic run, nonetheless.

I think you are lowballing the domestic run quite a bit. It should be able to handle around $415M.  I think $1.1B is locked. 

[Lucasmessi12]

11 hours ago, peludo said:

It did $192m during the second week.

And now it has done $93m during these last 7 days, what means a 51% drop.

 

If it drops every week from now:

-50%, it would finish with $681m OS

-45%: $702m

-40%: $727m

-35%: $761m

 

Even considering that China will be done within 1 week, and upcoming competition, I find hard it can not reach $700m OS. I am thinking in 710-720.

But there were holidays in some countries during the days of this week, right? who inflated the weekdays a bit? I said it was going to be difficult to reach $700m OS because of this weekend drop that was not good (we'll see how much it will go up with actuals numbers).

Edited March 25, 2019 by Lucasmessi12

[cdsacken]

End Game will help the late legs. 

[peludo]

2 hours ago, Lucasmessi12 said:

But there were holidays in some countries during the days of this week, right? who inflated the weekdays a bit? I said it was going to be difficult to reach $700m OS because of this weekend drop that was not good (we'll see how much it will go up with actuals numbers).

Even considering those holidays, it just needs to drop 46% or better week-to-week. I find hard it does not get stabilized and starts to drop a bit better. I agree that it is not locked, but I think it is more likely to get there that not. Anyway, it is going to be close.