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2020 Box office discussion

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4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

More like the lack of blockbusters will give more room for mid-budget films to breakout. I'm expecting this to be the one of the best year for studios that aren't called Disney.There's even a good chance Paramount hits a billie domestic for the first time in 6 years.

High hopes for Sonic

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2 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Not sure -- I wasn't actually involved or consulted with for that article. At first glance though, it looks like it's intended to cover the top 15 based on current forecasts. Mulan wouldn't make that cut, at the moment, but I do think it has potential if these negative rumors don't pan out.

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13 minutes ago, Shawn said:

At first glance though, it looks like it's intended to cover the top 15 based on current forecasts. Mulan wouldn't make that cut, at the moment,

:o   

Juicy deets.

 

I'd be pretty surprised if it lost to AQP2, TG:M, and GvK, but crazier things happen on a monthly basis.

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On 1/9/2020 at 7:41 PM, Arendelle Legion said:

:o   

Juicy deets.

 

I'd be pretty surprised if it lost to AQP2, TG:M, and GvK, but crazier things happen on a monthly basis.

Yeah, it's tough to say but I get more of a Wrinkle In Time/Dumbo vibe than Cinderella/Maleficent so far. Our early tracking for it will be out in a few weeks but that will of course not yet factor in reviews and final marketing.

 

Also, I haven't actually tabulated the specific top 15 as of now based on our forecasts, so I was initially guessing that's what the article was based around since I keep that data internal and for clients until the Long Range window hits. Looks like it was a New Year's kind of filler piece to get fresh content on the site while everyone was on break, excluding any numbers for obvious reasons, but it is fairly close to what I have as the top 15 for the year as of around Christmas.

 

But the actual numbers are constantly in flux when you're talking about a full year's window and lots of schedule changes yet to come. There's at least one on that list I probably wouldn't include were it written today, e.g.

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Let's actually see how many films have a chance of grossing more than 100 million $ domestically, to begin with. These are my estimates:

 

1. "Bad Boys For Life" - 165 million $

2. "Birds Of Prey" - 140 million $

3. "Onward" - 200-250 million $

4. "A Quiet Place 2" - 120-140 million $

5. "Mulan" - 100-150 million $

6. "The New Mutants" - 120-150 million $

7. "No Time To Die" - 200-250 million $

8. "Antebellum" - 100-120 million $

9. "Black Widow" - 300-350 million $

10. "Fast & Furious 9" - 170-200 million $

11. "Wonder Woman 1984" - 350-400 million $

12. "Soul" - 100-150 million $

13. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 120-140 million $

14. "Free Guy" - 100 million $

15. "Minions 2" - 130-150 million $

16. "Ghostbusters: Afterlife" - 120-140 million $

17. "Tenet" - 170-200 million $

18. "Jungle Cruise" - 130-150 million $

19. "The Conjuring 3" - 100-120 million $

20. "The King's Man" - 100-120 million $

21. "Untitled Marvel/Sony Sequel" (October 2nd) - 150-300 million $

22. "The Death On Nile" - 100-120 million $

23. "Halloween Kills" - 100-110 million $

24. "Eternals" - 350-400 million $

25. "Godzilla vs. Kong" - 100 million $

26. "Raya And The Last Dragon" - 130-160 million $

27. "Gigantic" - 100-150 million $

28. "Dune" - 100-120 million $

29. "Coming 2 America" - 100 million $

30. "West Side Story" - 100-130 million $

31. "The Croods 2" - 130-150 million $

 

I may have missed something, and there'll surely be 1-3 award season films that will manage to pull 100ish million, but this is all based on the calendar which is available now.

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