Weekend Thread (1/25-1/27): Weekend Estimates: Glass 19M l Upside 12.2M l Aquaman 7.3M l Kid WWB King 7.2M l Spider-Verse: 5.5M l Green Book 5.2M l Serenity 4.8M

[titanic2187]

TD	YD	Title (Click to View)	Studio	Daily Gross	% +/- YD / LW		Theaters / Avg		Gross To-Date	Day
1	1	Glass	Uni.	$4,980,000	+140%	-69%	3,844	$1,296	$59,521,135	8
2	2	The Upside	STX	$3,100,000	+158%	-26%	3,377	$918	$54,004,846	15
3	-	The Kid Who Would be King	Fox	$1,700,000	-	-	3,521	$483	$1,700,000	1
4	4	Aquaman	WB	$1,700,000	+147%	-33%	3,134	$542	$310,904,074	36
5	-	Serenity (2019)	Aviron	$1,600,000	-	-	2,561	$625	$1,600,000	1
6	10	Green Book	Uni.	$1,402,000	+298%	+134%	2,430	$577	$44,991,486	71
7	5	Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse	Sony	$1,325,000	+164%	-25%	2,383	$556	$164,215,116	43
8	7	A Dog's Way Home	Sony	$1,125,000	+176%	-34%	3,081	$365	$26,734,525	15
9	6	Escape Room	Sony	$1,090,000	+163%	-29%	2,192	$497	$44,730,074	22
10	3	Dragon Ball Super: Broly	FUN	$890,000	+21%	-63%	1,105	$805	$26,103,823	10
11	11	Mary Poppins Returns	BV	$726,000	+109%	-41%	1,985	$366	$162,617,010	38
12	12	Bumblebee	Par.	$655,000	+118%	-41%	2,108	$311	$119,076,152	36
-	-	The Favourite	FoxS	$650,000	+223%	+196%	1,540	$422	$24,217,164	64
-	-	Bohemian Rhapsody	Fox	$615,000	+130%	-1%	1,423	$432	$203,961,796	85
-	8	On the Basis of Sex	Focus	$526,000	+33%	-52%	1,272	$414	$19,500,007	32
-	-	Vice	Annapurna	$476,958	+83%	-3%	1,557	$306	$40,823,680	32
-	9	The Mule	WB	$410,000	+13%	-56%	1,395	$294	$98,894,703	43
-	-	A Star is Born (2018)	WB	$310,000	+275%	+84%	1,192	$260	$205,375,785	113
-	-	If Beale Street Could Talk	Annapurna	$241,036	+37%	-51%	606	$398	$11,745,776	43
-	-	Ralph Breaks the Internet	BV	$187,000	+51%	-51%	1,029	$182	$194,990,086	66
-	-	Destroyer	Annapurna	$50,079	+223%	+12%	77	$650	$768,577	32
-	-	Replicas	ENTMP	$10,000	-81%	-92%	82	$122	$3,968,122	15

[a2k]

Doubt AQM crosses 7m for the weekend. It's the high-end scenario if anything.

 

Last 2 Sat bumps were 70% and 75%. 80-85% bump gives 3.05-3.15m Sat.

Then 30-35% Sun drop gives 2.0-2.2m Sun

 

That gives a weekend of 6.75-7.05m (31-34% drop). Very good hold in any case.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Looks like Ralph will likely get fudged to make it to $200m. I can’t imagine that Disney will want to quit now.

 

Also @CJohn should check in on The Kid Who Would Be King in two weeks. Could this be the first film in more than 3,500 theaters to have a sub $2k PTA?

[a2k]

SPLIT cume goes ahead of GLASS on Day 8 : 59.6m vs 59.5m

 

Fri	$14,626,670 - / - $14,626,670 / 1	$15,886,745 - / - $15,886,745 / 1
Sat	$16,506,700 +12.9% / - $31,133,370 / 2	$14,524,105 -8.6% / - $30,410,850 / 2
Sun	$8,877,605 -46.2% / - $40,010,975 / 3	$9,918,070 -31.7% / - $40,328,920 / 3
ADVERTISEMENT (scroll to continue with chart)
Mon	$2,928,660 -67% / - $42,939,635 / 4	$6,176,030 -37.7% / - $46,504,950 / 4
Tue	$3,763,480 +28.5% / - $46,703,115 / 5	$3,814,910 -38.2% / - $50,319,860 / 5
Wed	$2,488,070 -33.9% / - $49,191,185 / 6	$2,144,560 -43.8% / - $52,464,420 / 6
Thu	$2,538,905 +2% / - $51,730,090 / 7	$2,076,715 -3.2% / - $54,541,135 / 7
WK 1	$51,730,090	$54,541,135
WEEK 2
Fri	$7,903,985 +211.3% / -46% $59,634,075 / 8	Est. $4,980,000 +139.8% / -68.7% $59,521,135 / 8

 

Edit: Also went ahead on Day 2 but now it's for good.

Edited January 26, 2019 by a2k

[lorddemaxus]

8 minutes ago, Spagspiria said:

Could this be the first film in more than 3,500 theaters to have a sub $2k PTA?

 

Mortal Engines?

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, Spagspiria said:

Looks like Ralph will likely get fudged to make it to $200m. I can’t imagine that Disney will want to quit now.

 

Also @CJohn should check in on The Kid Who Would Be King in two weeks. Could this be the first film in more than 3,500 theaters to have a sub $2k PTA?

It is.

[sfran43]

 

[Zakiyyah6]

Dont' see Glass getting 17mil off of that Friday but I've been wrong before.

[Curtis1986]

Not surprised device is still doing poorly. I think people know that is Oscar nominations was a complete joke.

[MovieMan89]

Looks like what I said about Green Book being a movie that would open small and WOM it out to 100m before it came out may not end up being so  far off after all. Can probably get to 75-80 now.

[Curtis1986]

On the bright side the upside is totally slaying. Kevin Hart is truly a big box-office draw. I wonder how much he makes per film.

[filmlover]

Serenity is the worst wide opening ever for an Anne Hathaway film. Congratulations?

[PenguinHyphy]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Looks like what I said about Green Book being a movie that would open small and WOM it out to 100m before it came out may not end up being so  far off after all. Can probably get to 75-80 now.

Green Book is going nowhere near that number with a $2,000 PTA in 2,500 theaters. The $60,000,000 that Deadline is estimating appears to be appropriate. The end of the year Oscar movies really have not played well this Oscar season, which means that the ratings are going to be even lower probably.             

Edited January 26, 2019 by PenguinHyphy

[Curtis1986]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Looks like what I said about Green Book being a movie that would open small and WOM it out to 100m before it came out may not end up being so  far off after all. Can probably get to 75-80 now.

Lol more like 55 to 60 million.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Green Book is going nowhere near that number with a $2000 PTA in 2,500 theaters. The $60,000,000 that Deadline is estimating appear to be appropriate. The end of the year Oscar movies really have not played well this Oscar season, which means that the ratings are going to be even lower probably. 

Black Panther, A Star is Born, and Bohemian Rhapsody were all box office juggernauts which more than makes up for the other nominees putting up more modest numbers at best. The ratings will probably sink anyway since that's the way TV is moving and everything about this ceremony sounds like it's going to be a disaster, and not of the fun kind either.

[ScoobyDoo21]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Serenity is the worst wide opening ever for an Anne Hathaway film. Congratulations?

I look at the wikipedia of the movie and i just wonder did someone get drunk and had a fever dream after playing Sega Bass Fishing

Edited January 26, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Green Book is going nowhere near that number with a $2,000 PTA in 2,500 theaters. The $60,000,000 that Deadline is estimating appears to be appropriate. The end of the year Oscar movies really have not played well this Oscar season, which means that the ratings are going to be even lower probably.             

Green Book has already been in wide release nearly its whole run and has had tiny drops nearly every weekend. I see no reason for that to stop just because it expanded. Especially with the box office slate being so barren and awards season in full swing. It should continue having great holds until at least the Oscars, probably a little longer since it will win a big award there. The movie got past 40m+ before this expansion on a 5m opening. It can certainly add another 25 off of this 5m+ weekend.

[Curtis1986]

 Green book has had a solid box office run but it's really interesting that the upside is doing the mess of numbers that people thought green book would do spot it works reviews and no Oscar buzz.

[MovieMan89]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Black Panther, A Star is Born, and Bohemian Rhapsody were all box office juggernauts which more than makes up for the other nominees putting up more modest numbers at best. The ratings will probably sink anyway since that's the way TV is moving and everything about this ceremony sounds like it's going to be a disaster, and not of the fun kind either.

Yeah, this is the first Oscars of the entire decade with three genuine blockbusters nominated, and the first with a box office juggernaut. Even though 2010 is still above it for the strongest crop overall on the box office front, and maybe 2012. But this is easily at least third place in most relevant Oscars of the decade, if not first because we have a true box office phenomenon in the category. And at least we have a few other 50-80m films in the mix as well. Nothing will be sub 30m this year either, which is also a first this decade (obviously Roma isn't fair to count).

[Jake Gittes]

18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Green Book has already been in wide release nearly its whole run and has had tiny drops nearly every weekend. I see no reason for that to stop just because it expanded. Especially with the box office slate being so barren and awards season in full swing. It should continue having great holds until at least the Oscars, probably a little longer since it will win a big award there. The movie got past 40m+ before this expansion on a 5m opening. It can certainly add another 25 off of this 5m+ weekend.

It was able to do that because the theater count stayed low and the PTAs high. Now it's the reverse. Next week is Superbowl which means a PTA drop and the week after that has 4 wide openers which means a big theater drop. It'll hold on okay but 70+ is out of reach unless it wins Best Picture.