Weekend Thread: Friday Estimate | LEGO MOVIE 2 $8.5M | WHAT MEN WANT $6.6M | COLD PURSUIT $ 3.64M | THE PRODIGY $2.02M

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

I remmeber loads predicting 300m for Ralph 2 after that Princess trailer 

I was one among them, but by the time release came around it felt that marketing peaked way too early and I was expecting $250mn best case, still wound up around $50mn short.

But also film wasn't as good as original so I can understand that. Opening was pretty good at $250mn target 

Edited February 10, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Rorschach]

Now I’m really, really curious has to how next weekend plays out. I really have no idea what to expect. With LEGO 2 underperforming this much, I’m wondering how HDD2U and Alita are going to fare. I have no doubt that the former will do really well but it’s the latter I’m biting my nails to see the BO performance for.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

The disappointing thing with Ralph was its legs not its Opening Weekend which was actually very good. Not a bad performance but it is the only WDAS film to gross under $600M since well....the first one. Luckily for them Frozen 2 is perfectly positioned to give them their 3rd $1 Billion Film.  

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

 

SOLARIS was a pretty solid movie though. 

nothing compared to the original so it shouldn't have been made.

 

IMDB warriors always forget context. The effort Jim put into Alita can't be compared with those two. Then there's the fact that a poor movie in Santcum managed to make a massive profit with just the power of Jim's name.

[charlie Jatinder]

LEGO underperformed because it was not looking like to perform that doesn't mean every other film will underperform. It's not that complicated to understand.

 

Every film perform on its own.

[charlie Jatinder]

The LEGO Movie 2 shall open to $29mn FSS and go for 3-3.25x legs to $87-94mn, roughly half of LEGO Batman.

 

LEGO Batman did $136mn Internationally, and 65% of that will be best possible scenario IMO, giving it $85-90mn internationally.

 

Theatrical returns of $80mn Approx worldwide. With budget of $100mn and additional $150mn release cost. This will have $170mn deficit from theatrical to recover from ancillaries.

 

LEGO Batman made around $50mn from Home Videos domestically. Other ancillaries would be around $125mn. Expecting this to make similar would just equals it to the deficit but then there are other costs of $115mn approx as well.

 

So when dust settle, LEGO Movie 2 will be in red of $90mn.

Cost

COP: $100mn

Release Cost (WW): $150mn

Home Entertainment Cost (WW): $50mn

Participation: $25mn

Overheads/Residuals: $40mn

 

Total: $365mn

 

 

Revenue

Theatrical Share: $80mn

Home Video (WW): $80mn

TV/PPV/VOD (WW): $100mn

Others: $15mn

 

Total: $275mn

 

 

Edited February 10, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[edmkh]

Hello everybody, i don't writ much because english is not my first language and so hi have problems expressing what i want to say . 

 

Lets be honest, if they you made the sequel to movie faster instead of the batman and ninja spinoff this movie would have been as massive as the first lego movie. That for me is is the only and simple answer.

 

Then they could have made the Batman Spinoff, and that ninja spin off or whatever they would want, but the main attraction was the Lego Movie, they should build that first, made the first and faster after the first lego movie, and then focus on the spinoff years later after the third or fourth "the Lego Movie" .

 

Also, i am sorry, the opening weekend you can say whatever you want but its all about marketing, if the marketing would have good the opening weekend for the lego movie 2 would have been big (i don't care if the spend millions and millions of dollars in marketing but the marketing was wrong because it didn't put seats in the theaters the first weekend).  IMHO Marketing its what makes opening weekends big, and if the movie is good, Word of mouth its what makes the movie legs big.

 

TL DR, making spinoffs, before making a direct sequel faster was a big mistake, and the marketing failed in making the opening weekend bigger. 

[a2k]

Lego2 can't be compared to Ted2 looking at costs. Ted2 still only had about 70 prod budget. Did over 81.5 dom and over 135 os.

[lorddemaxus]

Even though The Lego Movie is doing bad, I don't think it will end up under 100 mil DOM. Hoping it gets to 120 mil.

[TMP]

3 hours ago, cookie said:

I was hoping given how super aggressive Universal is with marketing the Illumination movies they'd do the same to HTTYD3 but that sadly doesn't seem to be the case. Maybe it's because it's a carryover from the pre-Dreamworks purchase days?

Yeah, Universal was probably disappointed that they have to market a good animated film for once, so they probably didn't try as hard

[Darth Lehnsherr]

8 minutes ago, TMP said:

Yeah, Universal was probably disappointed that they have to market a good animated film for once, so they probably didn't try as hard

Well then they should be happy that the upcoming Dreamworks films includes the Trolls sequel and the Boss Baby sequel.

 

Yay?

[a2k]

35 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Even though The Lego Movie is doing bad, I don't think it will end up under 100 mil DOM. Hoping it gets to 120 mil.

lego1's 3.73x gives 119+ with 32 ow. matching predecessor's legs won't be easy at all. batlego fell well below with 3.32x. that gives 106+ with 32 ow. the pta is low and it will start loosing theatres after 2 weeks. 105-110 at most imo.

[a2k]

Captain Marvel could have opened coming long-weekend like DP1 did. Would have left a big room between it and Dumbo too.

[TMP]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

Captain Marvel could have opened coming long-weekend like DP1 did. Would have left a big room between it and Dumbo too.

Dumbo won't hit $150m dom, so it's not much competition 

[cookie]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

Captain Marvel could have opened coming long-weekend like DP1 did. Would have left a big room between it and Dumbo too.

What was supposed to open next week before Dark Phoenix took the spot later followed by Alita? I can't remember.

[TMP]

Just now, cookie said:

What was supposed to open next week before Dark Phoenix took the spot later followed by Alita? I can't remember.

New Mutants 

[cookie]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

New Mutants 

New Mutants was on the 22nd before it got pushed back again.

[Curtis1986]

Nice to see Cold Pursuit not doing good.

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, TMP said:

Dumbo won't hit $150m dom, so it's not much competition 

On the contrary I’m starting to see it fly past $200M easily, Dragon 3 will likely do $140M and Wonder Park and Missing Link are going to flop, Shazam will still attract families but skew older and Disney for right now has enough time to market both where it’s not like the Endgame/Aladdin/TS4/Lion King clusterfuck.

[cookie]

Wonder Park looks like the most generic version of that concept it could possibly be. No wonder it's tracking horrendously.