Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

[Arlborn]

4 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

I didn't even realize this is not Marvels thread for a min.

Don't worry, I have the feeling once The Marvels comes and goes this will be the new doomed hot thread.

[HummingLemon496]

7 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

I didn't even realize this is not Marvels thread for a min.

$210-220M will not be that far away from The Marvels actual total. And if it's B CinemaScore level bad, then it actually could be its total

[Eric Lasagna]

 

[ThomasNicole]

 
 

 

[ZeroHour]

Now the internet can do what it does best, tell me if a movie is good or bad based solely on runtime! 

[Bob Train]

22 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

Now the internet can do what it does best, tell me if a movie is good or bad based solely on runtime! 

For live-action superhero movies, short runtime usually = bad movie. There are exceptions, but it usually means the studio wasn't confident in it and cut it up in post, which would fit with what we've heard from leakers. That is usually how this goes.

[Phoenix22]

When will they release the presale? Right before the month?

[HummingLemon496]

19 minutes ago, Phoenix22 said:

When will they release the presale? Right before the month?

Late November to early December probably

[keysersoze123]

43 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

For live-action superhero movies, short runtime usually = bad movie. There are exceptions, but it usually means the studio wasn't confident in it and cut it up in post, which would fit with what we've heard from leakers. That is usually how this goes.

What is short? Iron Man 2008 was just over 2 hrs and that was brilliantly made. you dont need 3 hrs to make a good movie !!!

[HummingLemon496]

If this tracks poorly, people are 100% going to use Puss in Boots: The Last Wish as a counter-example, just like people used Elemental to defend Blue Beetle or Top Gun: Maverick to defend The Flash. 

Edited November 7, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[MovieMan89]

24 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

If this tracks poorly, people are 100% going to use Puss in Boots: The Last Wish as a counter-example, just like people used Elemental to defend Blue Beetle or Top Gun: Maverick to defend The Flash. 

What is its direct competition in the Christmas tentpole category? Not Migration or Wonka, those are very much zeroing in on kids and families. If this movie can’t get to 100/300 DOM/WW off of being it for 4 quad Christmas, this will truly be a more epic bomb than even the likes of Marvels or Shazam 2. There is zero excuse not to get carried by default to a somewhat respectable total. 

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

What is its direct competition in the Christmas tentpole category? Not Migration or Wonka, those are very much zeroing in on kids and families. If this movie can’t get to 100/300 DOM/WW off of being it for 4 quad Christmas, this will truly be a more epic bomb than even the likes of Marvels or Shazam 2. There is zero excuse not to get carried by default to a somewhat respectable total. 

To answer your question, nothing. Literally nothing. So yes by default this should have somewhat decent legs (like 3.0x at least).

[DInky]

Shouldn't we be getting a second trailer right about now?

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, DInky said:

Shouldn't we be getting a second trailer right about now?

The second trailer for No Way Home dropped on Nov 16, so I'm expected the new Aquaman 2 trailer to drop in about 10 days

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

If this tracks poorly, people are 100% going to use Puss in Boots: The Last Wish as a counter-example, just like people used Elemental to defend Blue Beetle or Top Gun: Maverick to defend The Flash. 

Why would people use Puss in Boots when they have … the first Aquaman? 
 

Tracked poorly, have a very soft opening, not stellar reception and still manage to have amazing legs 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

On 11/7/2023 at 11:51 AM, Phoenix22 said:

When will they release the presale? Right before the month?

Probably the week Momoa hosts SNL.

 

I think this movie is going to bomb, but it's going to do a lot better because of the fact Momoa will be allowed to host SNL, and Warner Brothers will be allowed to market off the back of that.

Edited November 8, 2023 by MysteryMovieMogul

[Arlborn]

I like the fact that nowadays we are all sure this is going to do relatively poorly without need for any tracking what-so-ever, so this thread is a lot lighter than it could have been so far.

 

 

Let's see if this remains so once The Marvels wave passes us by and pre-sales starts.

[Mulder]

If this also bombs, then it's just over for the superhero genre as a whole.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

If this also bombs, then it's just over for the superhero genre as a whole.

Are you saying the fate of Deadpool 3, Joker 2, Batman 2 and next Supes movie rest on Aquabro 2 not bombing. Then its time to put these movies on the backburner for sure. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you saying the fate of Deadpool 3, Joker 2, Batman 2 and next Supes movie rest on Aquabro 2 not bombing. Then its time to put these movies on the backburner for sure. 

No obviously not everything CBM related will bomb, there'll always be strong ones, but if in 2023 out of the 6 releases in the genre, 5 were bombs then yeah it's a problem with the genre.