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WONDER WOMAN 1984 - JUNE 5, 2020

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Gonna depend a lot on China. Wonder Woman made around $90M, so there’s plenty of room for sequel to increase.

 

OS-China I could see a good increase base off good will of the original, but the period nature could potentially limit the appeal.

 

500-550M OS is my guess (could go higher if summer 2020 continues to look barren as it does now)

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On 6/6/2019 at 8:12 AM, Sam said:

Gonna depend a lot on China. Wonder Woman made around $90M, so there’s plenty of room for sequel to increase.

 

OS-China I could see a good increase base off good will of the original, but the period nature could potentially limit the appeal.

 

500-550M OS is my guess (could go higher if summer 2020 continues to look barren as it does now)

So WW $1.1 B + possible 

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OS-C of some breakout origin in range of Wonder Woman

 

Deadpool: $419mn (Asia/Russia $124mn - Oceania $38mn - MEA $20mn - Latin America $57mn - Europe $180mn)

GoTG: $340mn (Asia/Russia $105mn - Oceania $28mn - MEA $12mn - Latin America $65mn - Europe $130mn)

Wonder Woman: $319mn (Asia/Russia $103mn - Oceania $28mn - MEA $11mn - Latin America $77mn - Europe $100mn)

Spider-man: Homecoming: $427mn (Asia/Russia $170mn - Oceania $24mn - MEA $20mn - Latin America $93mn - Europe $120mn)

 

OS-C of their sequels

 

Deadpool 2: $416mn (Asia/Russia $145mn (16%) - Oceania $32mn (15%)- MEA $15mn (25%) - Latin America $65mn (14%) - Europe $159mn (13%))

GoTG 2: $373mn (Asia/Russia $115mn (09%) - Oceania $28mn ()- MEA $10mn (17%) - Latin America $59mn (9%) - Europe $161mn (1%))

Spider-man: Far From Home: $541mn (Asia/Russia $213mn (25%) - Oceania $30mn (1%)- MEA $25mn (25%) - Latin America $92mn (1%) - Europe $173mn (40%))

 

Truth be told, when I was compiling above, I was expecting a nice co-relation, which clearly isn't the case.

 

Taking DP 2 ratios of gain/loss we get, $326mn

Taking GoTG 2 ratios of gain/loss we get, $320mn

Taking FFH ratios of gain/loss we get, $386mn

 

Those FFH numbers are result of Avengers bump as well, so I guess $350mn is good sum to expect from OS-C. China, I am not sure, if will have huge increase, for now just taking 40% increase for $125mn Approx.

 

Expecting $475mn overseas.

 

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5 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Why did WW underperformed in Europe? Even more did Homecoming.

IMHO, it overperformed DOM. I do not find nothing special in the film beyond being the first female CBM. I do not get the Homecoming comparison. Spidey is WAAAAY more well known by GA than Wonder Woman.

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I think Warner had very little faith in Wonder woman so they didn't promote it enough.I had no clue a wonder woman movie was coming. Even in US a lot of it's performance was driven by WOM. I also don't see it dropping much domestically unless it is not received well.

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:D people comparing Wonder Woman with MCU Spider man, Spider man is an old character in theaters, already known to the public is not new as Wonder Woman, had no room to grow as Wonder Woman has (unless Spider is boosted by another movie connection as happened after Endgame).

 

Guardians of the Galaxy is not a good comparison either because it's Space Opera, and Space Opera movies don't usually do well OS (compared to Domestic), Deadpool is the best comparison, and yet it's not really similar because Deadpool is R Rated and has a mostly different audience, 

 

WW84 will make $500m + OS easily, unless it have horrible reviews and WOM.

Edited by Marcos12
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Ok let's start

 

Asia: $190-215mn

China could perhaps be looking at $125mn or so.

Japan should go on to enjoy holidays, $15-20mn I guess.

Saudi Arabia could clear $10mn, UAE/GCC can easily outscore Mulan which did like $2.4mn in UAE, so overall Middle East perhaps $15mn.

Taiwan can go upto $10-15mn easily.

Korea November releases grossed $30mn, WW84 perhaps $10-15mn depending on piracy.

India piracy will kill it, $5mn best case scenario IMO.

Rest perhaps another $10-20mn.

 

Oceania

ANZ should have been a big market but with HBO release donno how piracy will impact.

 

Europe 

Europe did really well for TENET grossing $140mn Approx but after COVID 2nd wave and direct HBO release, not sure what to expect really. May be another $50-90mn with strong Nordic Europe.

 

Latin America

DC is huge there but cinema reopening is very slow. Original WW did $77mn here, which would be around $50mn adjusted for exchange rates. May be $10mn or so can be done.

 

 

All this gives about $265-340mn Approx.

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China pre-sales started.

 

 

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Wonder Woman 1984 T-8 Days

 

Midnight -  ¥0.24mn on 2543 shows

Friday - ¥0.78mn (+¥0.59mn) on 33k shows

Saturday - ¥0.24mn (+¥0.19mn) on 15k shows

Sunday - ¥0.06mn (+0.03mn) on 12.5k shows

 

Total - ¥1.32mn (+¥0.81mn)

 

Comps

 

They don't mean much this far out. May start making some sense by T-4 days perhaps.

 

15% of Spider-man: Far From Home T-8 Days (3 days of Sale) - ¥33.5mn Opening Day

17.5% of Venom T-8 Days (5 days of Sale) - ¥39mn OD

47% of Aquaman T-7 Days (1 day of Sale) - ¥74mn OD

78% of TENET T-7 Days (1 day of Sale) - ¥44mn OD

 

The sales aren't showing any rush for now as such. Of course these early numbers don't mean as much as the Wednesday and Thursday before release do, but still a big opener CBM will show some rush. Let's see how it pick up in coming days. If I have to guess, less than ¥100mn OD may be for sure.

 

Projections

 

Take with huge grain of salt.

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