Thor: Love and Thunder | July 8, 2022 | Directed by Oscar Winner Taika Waititi | Ninth most profitable movie of 2022

[ZeeSoh]

27 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

In 2019 atp: ~125

in July 2022 atp: ~ 140 I guess, data lacking

In rank translation: 146 (28th, between JWD and gotg2)

Rank translated to end 2019 then atp adjusted: ~157 (142 +11%)  

 

Imo that last one is the most accurate, I will certainly consider this a poor opening if it’s sub 160

I think direct ATP translation without all the ranking thing is far better. Also I can understand the rank translation (though I don't really agree with that method) but I do not understand why add ATP adjustments on top of rank translations. Movies that have topped Ragnarok's OW in the last 5 years or so, with their inflated ATP OW, are already taken into consideration in the rank metric. 

 

Anyways I think 150m OW is a far more realistic target at this point. 160+ expectations can lead to disappointment considering that there won't be a huge fan rush to see this , relative to DS2, based on early pre sales so far. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Ronan 2.0 incoming?

 

9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Sales are well behind Dr. Strange here (Pitt). But what's interesting is how Dr. Strange sold rather well for 3D showtimes... the Thor 3D showings are empty

I think because 3D shows are the least desirable. People only buy them if they're struggling to get good seats in other shows. 

[Cooper Legion]

17 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

I think direct ATP translation without all the ranking thing is far better. Also I can understand the rank translation (though I don't really agree with that method) but I do not understand why add ATP adjustments on top of rank translations. Movies that have topped Ragnarok's OW in the last 5 years or so, with their inflated ATP OW, are already taken into consideration in the rank metric. 

 

Anyways I think 150m OW is a far more realistic target at this point. 160+ expectations can lead to disappointment considering that there won't be a huge fan rush to see this , relative to DS2, based on early pre sales so far. 

Can’t set a low target to avoid disappointment once it already looks to be disappointing, that’s not how it works. 

[TheDude391]

32 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Sales are well behind Dr. Strange here (Pitt). But what's interesting is how Dr. Strange sold rather well for 3D showtimes... the Thor 3D showings are empty

At least in my area (Toronto), the 3d showings of Strange were at all the "popular" times (6-8pm) while the 2d were relegated to 3pm and 10pm. It's the reverse for Thor. 

Edited June 13, 2022 by TheDude391

[ZeeSoh]

2 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Can’t set a low target to avoid disappointment once it already looks to be disappointing, that’s not how it works. 

How is 150 a low target? 2 out of 3 of your own metrics show that that is higher than Ragnarok adjusted. Even the Rank and ATP adjusted comes out to 157. 

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

How is 150 a low target? 2 out of 3 of your own metrics show that that is higher than Ragnarok adjusted. Even the Rank and ATP adjusted comes out to 157. 

Because it should be beating Ragnarok adjusted by more than just a couple % or so.   
 

For a solid McU sequel result what we’d really like to see is an improvement from rank 28 to *at least* top 20 (158).

Edited June 13, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Brainbug]

Ive just realized that Thor: Ragnarok did indeed came out in 2017 which is 5 years ago.

 

Damn man. Doesnt feel like it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Thor's popularity is a lot higher since Ragnarok, so it makes sense to have significantly higher expectations. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, Legion and Thunder said:

For a nice McU sequel result what we’d really like to see is an improvement from rank 28 to *at least* top 20 (158).

I think it might be unrealistic to expect rank increases for the 4th entry in a film series (domestically at least). While I personally still expect it over $165M, I would not consider $150M to be some kind of failure.

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

I think it might be unrealistic to expect rank increases for the 4th entry in a film series (domestically at least). While I personally still expect it over $165M, I would not consider $150M to be some kind of failure.

I suppose this is the first 4quel, but I don’t really see why entries should suddenly stop improving at #4 when they reliably do on 2 and 3. It’s not like Ragnarok left without much room to grow either.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

7 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

I suppose this is the first 4quel, but I don’t really see why entries should suddenly stop improving at #4 when they reliably do on 2 and 3. It’s not like Ragnarok left without much room to grow either.

I think it’s all relative. Release dates, marketing, etc etc. I’m not gonna go back and look at all the details but for instance, if DS2 was marketed as a totally insular “non-event” sequel, would it have done 35-187-410(ish)? Or would have been 20-130-300 and then it’s only marginally better (with adjustments) than DS1? 
 

If NWH was just Tom Holland going up against the Shocker and coming out in July 2022 instead of December 2021, does it even do 60% of NWH? 
 

Who knows. Just things to ponder.

Edited June 13, 2022 by ZurgXXR

[IceFire9yt]

150M would be a little underwhelming but fine considering its the height of summer and would have the opportunity to leg it out through weekdays.  I do think it will do more, though.

 

A 150M opening with decent legs (2.7 or more) would get it over 400M domestic and possibly 1B worldwide.  Hard to say that would be a disappointment.

Edited June 13, 2022 by IceFire9yt

[Cooper Legion]

Summer is one defense for a slightly soft OW actually — Oweek will end up better, arguably a better measure (though arguably worse too).

[IronJimbo]

I just got this feeling that MCU kind of peaked with Infiity War with the Endgame follow up.

 

If Phase 4 wants to get back on track then I think 150m is a must

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

Thor 4 which is under some people's high expectations will do fine , i knew something was up when ticket sites didn't crash

[Brainbug]

I cant really see this grossing less than 150M on OW. It has so much going for it. Ragnaroks stellar reception, coming of Thors big role in IW/EG, high trailer views, a July practically for itself.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

150 would be underwhelming IMO

 

There can be multiple factors: late marketing, Marvel fatigue, the aforementioned Endgame peak, less of an event. THAT SAID, it's still Thor's Endgame followup. Ragnarok is a beloved entry. It has the Guardians in it. Bale's villain SHOULD increase hype.

 

 

[Wormow]

I mean, it's still gigantic numbers, but I think it's just because this feels like more of the same, so it's attracting the same audience from Ragnarok, but it's not really doing anything new/unique/different that will draw in new audiences. It looks like another middle chapter (not a finale) that will introduce The Mighty Thor, but that's it. 

 

To general audiences, Gorr is just another villain, just like Hela was in Ragnarok. 

[Fox20]

200M was always a weird goal for some people, over 150M should have always been the goal... Marvel seems to to be focusing on Thor and Jane alone, Gorr was absent from the teaser, the Guardians are BARELY marketed, so people cannot make assumptions that they will have any other than a small role, Gorr is not someone known, it's barely different from Hela but unlike Hela who had some amazing shots in the trailer, it seems they are saving Gorr scenes.

 

Who knows on the other side maybe we get positive reactions push with this one, something Dr Strange did not have.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

38 minutes ago, Wormow said:

I mean, it's still gigantic numbers, but I think it's just because this feels like more of the same, so it's attracting the same audience from Ragnarok, but it's not really doing anything new/unique/different that will draw in new audiences. It looks like another middle chapter (not a finale) that will introduce The Mighty Thor, but that's it. 

 

To general audiences, Gorr is just another villain, just like Hela was in Ragnarok. 

Gorr is just another villain and Bale isn't exactly draw but you'd think they would heavily showcase him in trailers. He has a distinct look which could lead to moneyshots and Bale's comic book movie return is a big headline.

 

I agree the marketing has a "more of the same" feel and is underwhelming... probably why it's flopping in 3D sales. It's not a big visual MCU event, just another fun Thor adventure