Thor: Love and Thunder | July 8, 2022 | Directed by Oscar Winner Taika Waititi | Ninth most profitable movie of 2022

[Mr Terrific]

MCU four of top six domestic in 2021.  
Three of top six or seven this year?

MCU will fade some or a lot at some point. There’s basically no math that shows this currently. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

@Legion and Thunder Do you have a list of where MCU films finished their domestic run? I’m talking about rank (i.e TA1 finished its run at 3rd but is now 9th.)

[Cooper Legion]

3 hours ago, ZurgXXR said:

@Legion and Thunder Do you have a list of where MCU films finished their domestic run? I’m talking about rank (i.e TA1 finished its run at 3rd but is now 9th.)

Haven’t updated with phase 4 stuff yet but here’s the infinity saga:

Spoiler

Movie	Peak rank
Iron Man	21
Incredible Hulk	218
Iron Man 2	29
Thor	142
Captain America: The First Avenger	157
The Avengers	3
Iron Man 3	13
The Dark World	135
The Winter Soldier	73
Guardians of the Galaxy	31
Age of Ultron	7
Ant-man	202
Civil War	19
Doctor Strange	128
Guardians Vol 2	27
Homecoming	49
Ragnarok	62
Black Panther	3
Infinity War	4
Ant-Man and the Wasp	168
Captain Marvel	21
Endgame	2
Far From Home*	38

Infinity Saga aggregate statistics (mostly I would use geo or median):

Subset	107	Geometric	Median
All Movies	67.5	31.6	31.0
Phase 1	95.0	45.5	85.5
Phase 2	76.8	42.2	52.0
Phase 3	47.4	22.2	27.0
Solo Avg	80.8	50.0	49.0
Avengers Avg	4.0	3.6	3.5
Post-Avengers	57.8	27.8	31.0
post Avengers Solo	69.2	42.6	43.5
Phase 1 Solo	113.4	78.4	142.0
Phase 2 Solo	90.8	60.4	73.0
Phase 3 Solo	57.2	35.1	38.0

NWH obviously was/is #3 and the first 3 Phase 4s were fairly impacted by covid so I’m probably going to exclude them from aggregate statistics anyway. DS2 should finish ~34

Edited June 14, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

@Legion and Thunder Thanks!

 

Using this data, my target for L&T is 28th (or higher).

[Cooper Legion]

@ZurgXXR, If you want some extra schmanciness I have a version with statistics for growth, monthly growth, and aggregate statistics thereof: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gZqoHStSG_g5bZxIouErhys8LAYyWpIBSl9dq-vRTt0/edit  
 

“Growth” here is log because ranks, so the 3rd entry solo being ~200% indicates they tend to average ~ half the rank of the predecessor, which would take Rag 62nd to 31st.   
 

Of course that “average” doesn’t mean much since there are only 3 examples. Ironically Civil War is the one bogging things down with a poor performance — only improved to 19th from 30th of TWS, whereas Thor and IM 3rd entry both more than halved the ranks of the 2nd 😂  Strike that, had a typo for TWS.

 

When I get around to editing in NWH it will be 38th->3rd, absolutely ridiculous improvement — probably won’t want to include that among normal sequel growth.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Brainbug]

Before the summer i was sure that this movie would gross over a billion worlwide.

 

At the moment, im not so sure anymore. Doctor Strange 2, even with a 450M WW Opening, failed to reach the mark. Yes, that movie has relatively bad legs, but it also opened higher than Thor will probably, so Thor will need better legs to have a chance at a billion and while summer weekdays + probably a better reception could ensure it, its not impossible to imagine a scenario where Thor will also settle in the 900M WW region.

 

Ragnarok without its 112M China gross sits at 742M WW. Meaning, this movie will need to increase 258M WW to reach that billion. Not impossible, especially with great reception, but also not easy.

 

Assuming it matches Doctor Strange 2 OS (which is not an easy feat, even with that films poor legs), that would be 533M right now. Probably around 540M in the end. L&T would therefore need another 460M DOM for a billion. With any opening under like 170M, that looks tough to me. Again, not impossible, but tough.

 

I think theres a plausible scenario here where no Marvel film this year reaches 1 Billion worlwide. Black Panther 2 would need atleast 550M DOM imo to be a contender. It really shows huch much difference a China gross makes for the big movies in order to have a good chance at a billion.

 

Or Thor as well as BP2 cross 1B+ easily and make me look like a fool. Could happen as well 😄

[Rebeccas]

Also in addition to China/Russia, if it gets banned in the Middle East or gets higher “adult” ratings in many countries it will probably miss $1b and I think 900m will be a new norm for these movies. I guess that’s something Disney is okay with now. 

[Rebeccas]

Some random rumors: 

 

 

not sure how accurate that feels since if they’re so concerned about him going off the rails for Thor why would they hand him the SW movie that will basically need to be the film side’s resurrection. 

 

[Macleod]

1 hour ago, Rebeccas said:

Some random rumors: 

 

 

not sure how accurate that feels since if they’re so concerned about him going off the rails for Thor why would they hand him the SW movie that will basically need to be the film side’s resurrection. 

 

 

Exactly what I predicted, if at all true.  It's likely that they let Waititi run with the ball and got unexpected surprises in the editing room, same old story, has happened numerous times before.  The muted buzz for the movie means one of two things: 1) They re-edited the wildness out of it or 2) It simply isn't buzzworthy and just a "lark" of a movie.  They really don't seem to have enthusiasm with the promotion so far!  

 

And Star Wars?  I would look at the recent rep of Lucasfilm's development history and I would say it will be a miracle if Waititi's movie even gets made, let alone does not get mucked with in post.  

Edited June 15, 2022 by Macleod

[SpiderByte]

I can't imagine them putting his Star Wars in the front burner if they somehow were unhappy with Love and Thunder. I think it's exaggerated.

[Rebeccas]

22 minutes ago, Macleod said:

 

Exactly what I predicted, if at all true.  It's likely that they let Waititi run with the ball and got unexpected surprises in the editing room, same old story, has happened numerous times before.  The muted buzz for the movie means one of two things: 1) They re-edited the wildness out of it or 2) It simply isn't buzzworthy and just a "lark" of a movie.  They really don't seem to have enthusiasm with the promotion so far!  

 

And Star Wars?  I would look at the recent rep of Lucasfilm's development history and I would say it will be a miracle if Waititi's movie even gets made, let alone does not get mucked with in post.  

They simply wouldn’t have handed him the SW movie in that case cause they had the experience with Lord and Miller behind them already (similar director types). Especially since they could just quietly drop it like all the other directors projects that are going nowhere like the Patty Jenkins film and just call it “scheduling” issues. But this is the one Kathleen Kennedy talks about nonstop like it’s happening ASAP even though he himself said he’s not done writing it. 

 

Like it’s possible LF is just that desperate that they’ll use the buzziest person’s name they can find to make it seem like the films are in great shape but again, why not just fast track the Jenkins film then since that was announced earlier anyways. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Rebeccas

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I mean, Taika has literally said for 2 years this is a bigger, weirder, wackier movie. The tone in trailer seems broader and flashier. And we've already heard rumors here about the test screenings being... messy

[Macleod]

6 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

They simply wouldn’t have handed him the SW movie in that case cause they had the experience with Lord and Miller behind them already (similar director types). Especially since they could just quietly drop it like all the other directors projects that are going nowhere like the Patty Jenkins film and just call it “scheduling” issues. But this is the one Kathleen Kennedy talks about nonstop like it’s happening ASAP even though he himself said he’s not done writing it. 

 

Like it’s possible LF is just that desperate that they’ll use the buzziest person’s name they can find to make it seem like the films are in great shape but again, why not just fast track the Jenkins film then since that was announced earlier anyways. 

 

Because Jenkins' higher-priority right now is working with Warner Bros. to "fix" Wonder Woman.  

 

Everybody signs up for Star Wars...not many stay, or don't get mucked with, that's all I have to say...  Everything's happening...until it isn't.  

 

Similar thought ideology might happen at Marvel, Feige runs the ship, Raimi seemed to know this/figure it out and seemed to work with it, Waititi playing ball so far in promotion, but we never know the real story until years later sometimes.  Not saying it's all bad, these things are...complicated.  But I wouldn't really put further thought into all of this unless we hear more of it from the trades. 

[WittyUsername]

8 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Like it’s possible LF is just that desperate that they’ll use the buzziest person’s name they can find to make it seem like the films are in great shape but again, why not just fast track the Jenkins film then since that was announced earlier anyways. 

Patty Jenkins seems to have lost a lot of her goodwill after WW84. Waititi is currently still a trusted name, but we’ll have to see how people respond to this movie. 

[ThomasNicole]

All the recent realiable reports about test screenings for Thor was that they went extremelly well, Disney is dropping reactions 15 days before the release date, if they were unhappy with what Taika did, we would knew it for months like always happen when there's drama with MCU.

 

Kathleen Kennedy said Taika's SW movie is the priority of LF, even him is talking about it quite a lot recently, they're trying to release as fast as next year. 

 

This whole thing doesn't make any sense.

 

 

Edited June 15, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[Rebeccas]

38 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Patty Jenkins seems to have lost a lot of her goodwill after WW84. Waititi is currently still a trusted name, but we’ll have to see how people respond to this movie. 

What didnt make sense was Patty dropping Cleopatra to do SW supposedly but then not doing SW after all…. 

[Rebeccas]

44 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I mean, Taika has literally said for 2 years this is a bigger, weirder, wackier movie. The tone in trailer seems broader and flashier. And we've already heard rumors here about the test screenings being... messy

The cast just said that there was so much footage they could’ve made 15 different movies with it so I don’t doubt some of the test screenings were weird as hell. Assuming the BSL guy’s sources saw a more reasonable screening if they were so positive on it. 

[lorddemaxus]

24 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

we would knew it for months like always happen when there's drama with MCU.

Ummm, months before Eternals came out, there were reports of Feige being blown away by it and it being a potential Oscar contender lol. No one knew it would be bad until like the week of social media embargo lifting. There weren't really reports of Doctor Strange being mid months before too.

[Rebeccas]

4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Ummm, months before Eternals came out, there were reports of Feige being blown away by it and it being a potential Oscar contender lol. No one knew it would be bad until like the week of social media embargo lifting. There weren't really reports of Doctor Strange being mid months before too.

BSL mentioned some issues w/ test screenings with DS2 but said they were more positive after the reshoots. 

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Ummm, months before Eternals came out, there were reports of Feige being blown away by it and it being a potential Oscar contender lol. No one knew it would be bad until like the week of social media embargo lifting. There weren't really reports of Doctor Strange being mid months before too.

Strange? Even before NWH came out or the reshoots happened there was realiable sources saying the test screenings was pretty bad and the movie needed a lot of work (they delayed from March to May and get into 6 weeks of reshoots not much after that). 

 

Eternals indeed had a very smooth production and the one guy from AwardsWatch saying it's awards contender. And while it gets bad reception, maybe the production indeed was ok and nobody really saw the bad reviews coming.

 

But the recent big movies, NWH / DS2 / BP2, they're all had a lot of reports of problems. Thor didn't, and many sources said test screenings was very well received at this point, even Taika himself said this week Gorr have the best villain reception Marvel ever had on these tests, even better than Thanos.

 

I'm not saying the movie will be super acclaimed or something, i'm just saying it seems very unlikely Disney have a problem with this movie or SW is in danger because of it.