Weekend Thread: Top 5 Actuals- The Lion King $76.62M | OUATIH $41.08M | SM: FFH $12.45M | TS3 $10.45M | CRAWL $4.06M

[Avatree]

16 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

I'd expect Tenet to do Dunkirk money. At least Nolan basically doesn't do R-rated movies anymore so it should be accessible.

Not any more? Err.. he never has? He's done one R-rated film, his first film Memento?

[Rebeccas]

Just now, Avatree said:

Not any more? Err.. he never has? He's done one R-rated film, his first film Memento?

Wasn't Insomnia rated R?

[Eric the Ape]

15 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Mickey's Law is starting to die down with TLK underperforming.

 

Also Jungle Cruise is going to be hurt be the "theme park movie curse".

Mickey's Law does not mean all Disneys overperform. It only means for non-Disneys, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. That's why Disney gets a Nutcracker or Dumbo thrown into the mix.

[Avatree]

3 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Wasn't Insomnia rated R?

! I always forget that movie exists and is a Nolan film. I love that film. for some reason I always think he got Batman Begins straight off the back of Memento.

 

Edited July 29, 2019 by Avatree

[LateReg]

2 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Not any more? Err.. he never has? He's done one R-rated film, his first film Memento?

Following is his first film. Insomnia is also R. He started his career as a very adult director who made lean movies on a small budget, which is why some clamor for him to make a return to that territory.

[TMP]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Mickey's Law does not mean all Disneys overperform. It only means for non-Disneys, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. That's why Disney gets a Nutcracker or Dumbo thrown into the mix.

Yeah, Mickey's Law might still haunt WB well into 2020 at this rate.

[Eric the Ape]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

Yeah, Mickey's Law might still haunt WB well into 2020 at this rate.

🤔 

 

Harley and Diana will probably (keyword) make it out okay. Everyone else is f*cked tho

[Avatree]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

Yeah, Mickey's Law might still haunt WB well into 2020 at this rate.

It 2, Joker, Wonder Woman 2 will all make huge bank. Birds of Prey and Kongzilla I could see flopping. (I don't think BOP will FLOP but I can imagine it)

Edited July 29, 2019 by Avatree

[TMP]

Just now, Avatree said:

It 2, Joker, Wonder Woman 2 will all make huge bank. Birds of Prey and Kongzilla I could see flopping.

I'll give you Joker. It 2's run-time makes me expect a big drop-off, and Wonder Woman 2 will probably get a big drop too.

[MikeQ]

28 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Even removing Batman, his three blockbuster films have averaged 650m+ at the box office while maintaining a respectable budget (that % deal aside) relative to those grosses. An underperformance from Tenet doesn't exactly erase that history. Maybe it gives studios the leverage to reduce that % deal but he's not gonna struggle to find another project. 

That's my impression as well - that even if Tenet faltered somewhat financially, WB would still give Nolan another opportunity to make an original big budget film. Not only has he had overall box office success relative to budget for his last three original films, they also all received Oscar nominations and wins (Inception: 8 noms/4 wins; Interstellar: 5 noms/1 win; Dunkrik: 8 noms/3 wins), with two of his last three being nominated for Best Picture.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Avatree]

Just now, TMP said:

I'll give you Joker. It 2's run-time makes me expect a big drop-off, and Wonder Woman 2 will probably get a big drop too.

Oh WW84 and It 2 will no doubt gross less than the first ones but they'll still do really well, and WW84 could increase overseas where it didn't do amazingly firs time round

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Avatree said:

It 2, Joker, Wonder Woman 2 will all make huge bank. Birds of Prey and Kongzilla I could see flopping. (I don't think BOP will FLOP but I can imagine it)

Survivors of 2019-2020:

WW84

BOP (the small budget will help)

IT2 

Joker 

 

Unknown:

Tenet

 

 

Deaths:

GvK (if stays in March)

Scoob 

Dune

Edited July 29, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Rebeccas]

6 minutes ago, LateReg said:

Following is his first film. Insomnia is also R. He started his career as a very adult director who made lean movies on a small budget, which is why some clamor for him to make a return to that territory.

I kinda feel like violence is a lot more tolerated in PG13 movies these days and you don't have to sacrifice a whole lot to go PG13 for the types of films he wants to make (since Nolan's a prude anyways)

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

I'll give you Joker. It 2's run-time makes me expect a big drop-off, and Wonder Woman 2 will probably get a big drop too.

Why would WW drop big as the original was well liked? Not to mention, it’s not like Fast 9 will be big DOM and Black Widow seems like a non starter.

[Avatree]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Survivors of 2019-2020:

WW84

BOP (the small budget will help)

IT2 

Joker 

 

Deaths:

GvK (if stays in March)

Scoob 

Dune

Before godzilla KOTM (which I expected to flop), I still thought Godzilla v King Kong could do well. But Warners do not sound confident in it. So a bit concerned it will go the same way as KOTM.

[TMP]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Why would WW drop big as the original was well liked? Not to mention, it’s not like Fast 9 will be big DOM and Black Widow seems like a non starter.

I loved the first WW, but I'm expecting a Deadpool 2-like drop at best. Just a gut feeling, but the 3 year delay is probably gonna harm it now that people are used to sequels churned out every 2 years.

Also, Black Widow is probably winning the summer. The combination of that + ScarJo's possible Oscar win for the new Baumbach film is probably gonna set film twitter on fire though, lol.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Avatree said:

Before godzilla KOTM (which I expected to flop), I still thought Godzilla v King Kong could do well. But Warners do not sound confident in it. So a bit concerned it will go the same way as KOTM.

Yeah. Best Case scenario seems like Kong numbers.

[Avatree]

I think WW84 will pull a Spider-Man 2 where it is liked even more but takes a dip due to how successful the first one was.

[Avatree]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Yeah. Best Case scenario seems like Kong numbers.

Kong Skull Island numbers would be great, that's what I mean. But after WB saying that they will delay GvK to change it in response to audience disliking KOTM.... some things can't be fixed.

I just suspect they have made it way more like KOTM than like Godzilla 14 or K:SI so it will suck and might open OK but people won't enjoy it.

 

Edited July 29, 2019 by Avatree

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, TMP said:

I loved the first WW, but I'm expecting a Deadpool 2-like drop at best. Just a gut feeling, but the 3 year delay is probably gonna harm it now that people are used to sequels churned out every 2 years.

Also, Black Widow is probably winning the summer. The combination of that + ScarJo's possible Oscar win for the new Baumbach film is probably gonna set film twitter on fire though, lol.

Yeah cause waiting 3 years hurt GV2, AMatW, DOFP, and the four year wait killed Ragnarok. The only CBMs with two year sequels were in fact, FFH and Dead2ool. The former had a slight increase DOM, while the latter only slightly decreased. Both seems about right for WW84 but I have no reason to see a major decrease like Dark Phoenix or Pets 2. If an original is liked enough, and has sequel potential it’ll be fine, I mean Frozen 2 was 6 years after the first but that’s looking to be a monster.

 

From what we now know of the plot as well as having more details, it seems very small scaled for the MCU like Ant Man and doesn’t seem like it will effect the MCU as a whole like Captain Marvel, sure there’ll be a superhero drought but even then, I don’t think it’ll cause it to go crazy. TWS numbers seem about right, maybe Homecoming at most, but anything over $350M+ DOM is a pipe dream as we saw with FFH, DOM at least the Endgame bump only gets you so far. The Eternals will be the big MCU film.

Edited July 29, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord