Weekend Thread: Top 5 Actuals- The Lion King $76.62M | OUATIH $41.08M | SM: FFH $12.45M | TS3 $10.45M | CRAWL $4.06M

[Avatree]

4 minutes ago, TMP said:

Seems destined for low box office and critics prizes. It'll probably be the best of the three though.

Yes I agree but it's more likely than a goofy comedy. 

 

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

People underestimate JoJo Rabbit cause it's a comedy. Big mistake. Comedies win, not as often as dramas but they win. it isn't unheard of especially if a comedy is quirky. which JoJo Rabbit is. Also, people who read the script and saw the movie say it's heavier than what shown in the trailers. 

Yeah it does happen, I suppose you could point to The Favourite last year even. But generally the comedies that got Oscars were quite some time ago, it's much more drama focused now in past few decades. It happened back in the olden days.

 

And haven't seen the trailer but pretty sure it is still a full on comedy no?

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, TMP said:

At worst Marriage Story will get a Best Actor nomination. At this point Driver and DiCaprio are the only nominations I have any confidence in, and maaaaybe Joaquin if it's really a "career-best performance". Lady Bird felt fresh and unique, and idk if the 20th Little Women adaptation is gonna have that going for it. It's also not an original screenplay from her, and the script to Lady Bird was one of its strongest assets imo. If Little Women gets into Telluride, I'll probably change my tune.

Netflix is juggling a lot of big Oscar players this year too; Marriage Story, The Irishman, Two Popes, so I don't know if they'll just drop the ball on their campaigns.

Could see Adam Driver losing out because of The Report. Some voters could decide to vote for Adam Driver in The Report instead of him in Marriage Story and it causes both roles to not get enough votes which has happened a couple of times (same reason why both The Laundromat and The Report probably won't get screenplay noms).

 

Best Actor race does seem a quite 

weak this year though (can see Pitt for Ad Astra, Bale for Ford v Ferrari, o4 maybe De Niro for The Irishman get in).

[Ledmonkey96]

12 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh, they’ll be waiting for the other big films to be released before they kick into gear. Plus it’s months away still. 

 

The tv spots for the first film were amazing. So I’m sure there will be plenty of buzz before opening. 

 

I would not be surprised at a drop though, at the end of the day it’s a horror sequel, which very often drop. 

It's only a month and a week away

[Rebeccas]

Just cause Baumbach hasn't been an Oscar darling before doesn't mean he can't be now. The tea on Marriage Story is extremely strong at this point. Most people thought Lanthimos was too weird for the Academy until The Favourite proved otherwise.

[TMP]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Could see Adam Driver losing out because of The Report. Some voters could decide to vote for Adam Driver in The Report instead of him in Marriage Story and it causes both roles to not get enough votes which has happened a couple of times (same reason why both The Laundromat and The Report probably won't get screenplay noms).

 

 Best Actor race does seem a quite 

 weak this year though (can see Pitt for Ad Astra, Bale for Ford v Ferrari, o4 maybe De Niro for The Irishman get in).

huh! it's incredibly competitive this year. Can't see Pitt making it because of that competition; also Bale's supporting. Driver (x2), DiCaprio, De Niro, Banderas, Phoenix, B. Jordan, Pryce, Egerton, Pattinson, Norton, Murphy and ADAM SANDLER* could all get nominated looking at the fall slate.

*watch him give the best male performance of the year only to get screwed by A24's bad campaign skills (see also: Ethan Hawke in 2018 & Pattinson in 2017).

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

Just cause Baumbach hasn't been an Oscar darling before doesn't mean he can't be now. The tea on Marriage Story is extremely strong at this point. Most people thought Lanthimos was too weird for the Academy until The Favourite proved otherwise.

Sure, but I didn't hear any "It's Lanthimos - there'll be Oscars" 6 months before The Favourite released.

[Avatree]

4 minutes ago, TMP said:

huh! it's incredibly competitive this year. Can't see Pitt making it because of that competition; also Bale's supporting. Driver (x2), DiCaprio, De Niro, Banderas, Phoenix, B. Jordan, Pryce, Egerton, Pattinson, Norton, Murphy and ADAM SANDLER* could all get nominated looking at the fall slate.

*watch him give the best male performance of the year only to get screwed by A24's bad campaign skills (see also: Ethan Hawke in 2018 & Pattinson in 2017).

Adam Sandler will get a Best Actor nomination.

 

Save this space.

 

And yes it's super competitive this year tons of big name actors giving - or hopefully giving - strong performances in prestige films.

 

Edited July 29, 2019 by Avatree

[cannastop]

3 hours ago, TMP said:

1. Sony has another 6 Venom movies at bay, I'm sure they'll be fine.

2. I'm sure profit wasn't the main incentive as to why WB. and Sony fought so hard to get the rights to this film. It's still gonna be a big awards player, and they're still distributing a film from one of the most iconic directors working. It's not like WB. distributed Kubrick's last few films to get Batman money. Tarantino will be fine; at worst he still has Star Trek.

Uh, I'm pretty damn sure they're not just doing it for the glory.

Although I did hear that some movie studios that were subsidiaries in the 1970s were chasing prestige for the parent company.

[Krissykins]

12 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

It's only a month and a week away

Sorry yeh, still standard practice to wait for other big films to open then go full on with the advertising. 

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Sorry yeh, still standard practice to wait for other big films to open then go full on with the advertising. 

I think the first film only started to get full marketing in August too. The first TV spot release at the start of August.

[lorddemaxus]

17 minutes ago, TMP said:

huh! it's incredibly competitive this year. Can't see Pitt making it because of that competition; also Bale's supporting. Driver (x2), DiCaprio, De Niro, Banderas, Phoenix, B. Jordan, Pryce, Egerton, Pattinson, Norton, Murphy and ADAM SANDLER* could all get nominated looking at the fall slate.

*watch him give the best male performance of the year only to get screwed by A24's bad campaign skills (see also: Ethan Hawke in 2018 & Pattinson in 2017).

I don't see a lot of those getting in. Out of the ones I've haven't mentioned, I can see Banderas and Norton get a nomination (maybe Pryce too). I think Egerton should get nominated but Rocketman seems to have lost steam and will lose more as the awards season starts. Academy will also think it's too similar to Bohemian Rhapsody.

[TMP]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

I don't see a lot of those getting in. Out of the ones I've haven't mentioned, I can see Banderas and Norton get a nomination (maybe Pryce too). I think Egerton should get nominated but Rocketman seems to have lost steam and will lose more as the awards season starts. Academy will also think it's too similar to Bohemian Rhapsody.

idk, it just seems incredibly competitive this year, the most competitive it's been since 2013 imo. Norton's on the fringe for me since we know so little about that film, but I could see B. Jordan sneaking in since he has a lot of industry support, and De Niro too if he's as good as he normally is with Scorsese. I'd love Sandler to happen, but if Pattinson couldn't get a nomination in a weak year with Good Time...

[Wrath]

56 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Here’s the thing though. This isn’t 2013. Nat/ScarJo is not the Only Girl. I don’t have to stan her on principal anymore. I don’t have to rush out on OW in fear that if the movie even SLIGHTLY underperforms, I will never get another female superhero ever.  I don’t even have to worry if the film fails Marvel will never hire another female director. 

 

I can wait a couple months, the Eternals ARRIVES with Jolie. Hayek. Ridloff.

 

In 2021, Val and Mighty Thor are gonna be bi-girlfriends and Wanda’s gonna break the multiverse via BOTH the cinematic experience and Disney+. I can stay home and watch Carol on repeat. 

 

I really hope the Widow is a solid spy thriller a la Atomic Blonde. If it is two hours of the fights like the scene they showed at SDCC I will STAN. 

 

I just don’t see the box office draw. Wonder Woman was able to pull a 4X multi because Boomer women came out in droves. Wondy holds a special place in their minds, and Wondy benefits from transcending “comic book character” to “feminist icon”. Even with the popularity of the MCU, I would argue that Widow never made that leap. 

 

I just don’t see Widow getting that extra boost. 

 

 

 

All true. Plus, its worth mentioning, the Wonder Woman movie was overall really good, almost certainly the best DCU movie (and by a pretty good margin). Her score is spectacular, and the "No Man's Land" sequence was fantastic.

 

Edit - Its also not going to help that we know Widow's ultimate fate.

Edited July 29, 2019 by Wrath

[lorddemaxus]

Fun fact: the Wonder Woman 1984 teaser poster is the 5th most upvoted post on r/movies this year which is a 95% male subreddit. Maybe the movie will also bring in a larger male audience than expected?

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Fun fact: the Wonder Woman 1984 teaser poster is the 5th most upvoted post on r/movies this year which is a 95% male subreddit. Maybe the movie will also bring in a larger male audience than expected?

wouldnt be suprised, i mean captain marvel was male heavy so i cant see why ww couldnt be

[Alli]

Captain Marvel made more than than Wonder Woman. So, i wouldn't underestimate BW. just because WW was the first one doesn't mean the other female cbm can't reach high numbers

[RamblinRed]

I'm firmly in the BW under 300M club right now until I see something that makes me think otherwise. There isn't really alot to think it will go high right now.

 

It's not the first female superhero movie. It's not the first Marvel female superhero movie. It's not even really an iconic female superhero like WW.

It also has no endgame factor to it. And since it will be a prequel it really doesn't have any big reason to go see it to tie into other Marvel films.

 

I'm expecting a performance similar to AM&tW or DS.

 

[Eric the Ape]

1 hour ago, captainwondyful said:

 

Hepburn and Ryder’s Little Women are ICONIC. Why do I need this new version that looks exactly the same as the other SIX film versions and countless other TV and stage adaptations? At least the non-starter low budget one last year had the wherewithal to modernize it. 

 

(And yes, yes, I knooooooow that Timmy is in it.)

 

 

Shouldn't have said that.

 

[Rebeccas]

50 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Sure, but I didn't hear any "It's Lanthimos - there'll be Oscars" 6 months before The Favourite released.

From people who went to test screenings, they definitely called a huge Oscar haul for The Favourite.

[MCKillswitch123]

5 hours ago, CJohn said:

@MCKillswitch123 600.000 tickets in 11 days. Biggest 2nd weekend ever by a wild margin. This weekend would be the 5th biggest OW ever btw. Unreal. it will crush Endgame's total tomorrow, on his 13 day of release. I have no fucking words. 1 million tickets sold is locked, 2nd movie in history to reach the mark. Avatar is SHAKING. FUCKING SHAKING.

 

https://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_25_a_28_julho_2019_181475d3ebfba80a5f.pdf

Dear fucking Christ. It's impressive and disgusting at the same time.