Weekend Thread: Top 5 Actuals- The Lion King $76.62M | OUATIH $41.08M | SM: FFH $12.45M | TS3 $10.45M | CRAWL $4.06M

[Rebeccas]

1 hour ago, RamblinRed said:

I apologize if this has already been posted, but I didn't see it until this morning. I knew OUaTiH was an expensive movie but if these numbers to break even are accurate I just can't see it being profitable for Sony. If it has the same breakdown as Django it is probably looking at roughly a 320M WW gross. (I'm assuming about a 110M DOM). it has an audience score that still hasn't stabilized - now down to 72% verified and 71% all and has a definite recommend of only 58% and a highly male skewing audience. That all screams frontloading is likely. 

 

https://deadline.com/2019/07/once-upon-a-time-in-hollywood-quentin-tarantino-box-office-lion-king-weekend-1202654606/

 

Just like Tarantino’s Hollywood is a throwback pic, so is its financial structure, we hear from sources, with 30% of the first dollar gross going to the filmmaker, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Brad Pitt in a first dollar pool. We hear that first dollar gross is typical on a Tarantino pic, and that between Inglourious Basterdsand The Hateful Eight, he made around $75M between fees and profits. Typically, on a big star-driven tentpole like a Dwayne Johnson movie, profit is dispensed at a percent of cash break-even. We understand that in order for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood to break-even, it has to make just north of $400M at the worldwide B.O., just under the $425.3M that Django Unchained grossed (38% of that came from U.S./Canada, where the feature made $162.8M, still his highest- grossing movie).

 

 

It is a weird deal that in order to break even it has to become the director's 2nd biggest film. The first dollar % for Leo and Brad is even weirder cause a lot of great actors would be willing to take a financial hit just to be in one of QT's movies. A deal like this almost guarantees that the studio won't make any money and then wtf is their reasoning for funding more of these movies if the only original films that can make decent money just goes to the director and stars anyways?

[TMP]

If Tenet does poorly, is Nolan gonna go back to making IP films?

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

If Tenet does poorly, is Nolan gonna go back to making IP films?

 

Unless the whole thing goes completely Heaven's Gate, I assume he has some leeway with his leash and even then I assume he's just gonna keep making his own films...at a lower budget/altered pay structures. Shyamalan had a few chances before he 'flamed' out and had to finance through alternative methods.

Edited July 29, 2019 by MrPink

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

If Tenet does poorly, is Nolan gonna go back to making IP films?

Maybe? Who knows, I feel like he's made enough successful original films that he will have at the very least another chance to make a big-budget original blockbuster, though it's possible he may go to something smaller scale.

Edited July 29, 2019 by Jayhawk

[TMP]

Just now, MrPink said:

 

Unless the whole thing goes completely Heaven's Gate, I assume he has some leeway with his leash and even then I assume he's just gonna keep making his own films...at a lower budget/altered pay structures. Shyamalan had a few chances before he 'flamed' out and had to finance through alternative methods.

Yeah, but he has a similar % deal as Tarantino and Tenet cost at least twice as much as OUATI...H. If we're debating Tarantino's next project struggling to get a green-light, if Tenet under-performs wouldn't we be asking the same thing for Nolan? 

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

If Tenet does poorly, is Nolan gonna go back to making IP films?

He's gonna make Inception 2 or Interstellar 2 just like how James Cameron made Terminator 2 after The Abyss got underwhelming numbers.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

2 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Unless the whole thing goes completely Heaven's Gate, I assume he has some leeway with his leash and even then I assume he's just gonna keep making his own films...at a lower budget/altered pay structures. Shyamalan had a few chances before he 'flamed' out and had to finance through alternative methods.

I.E. his own money lmao

[Avatree]

haha just wait until TENET makes 1 billion dollars.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, TMP said:

Yeah, but he has a similar % deal as Tarantino and Tenet cost at least twice as much as OUATI...H. If we're debating Tarantino's next project struggling to get a green-light, if Tenet under-performs wouldn't we be asking the same thing for Nolan? 

I think Nolan has made a lot more money for WB than Tarantino had for Weinstein for instance.

[Rebeccas]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

He's gonna make Inception 2 or Interstellar 2 just like how James Cameron made Terminator 2 after The Abyss got underwhelming numbers.

Inception does have potential for another story set in the same universe like with a different heist, just wouldn't want to go back to the Leo story cause that felt done.

[TMP]

1 minute ago, Avatree said:

haha just wait until TENET makes 1 billion dollars.

I love Pattinson, but he's not gonna pull audiences like Leo did with Inception. Also, if Mickey's Law is still in effect, it's gonna get hit pretty hard in weekend 2 by Jungle Cruise.

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

Yeah, but he has a similar % deal as Tarantino and Tenet cost at least twice as much as OUATI...H. If we're debating Tarantino's next project struggling to get a green-light, if Tenet under-performs wouldn't we be asking the same thing for Nolan? 

 

Even removing Batman, his three blockbuster films have averaged 650m+ at the box office while maintaining a respectable budget (that % deal aside) relative to those grosses. An underperformance from Tenet doesn't exactly erase that history. Maybe it gives studios the leverage to reduce that % deal but he's not gonna struggle to find another project. 

[Rebeccas]

I'd expect Tenet to do Dunkirk money. At least Nolan basically doesn't do R-rated movies anymore so it should be accessible.

[TMP]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

Even removing Batman, his three blockbuster films have averaged 650m+ at the box office while maintaining a respectable budget (that % deal aside) relative to those grosses. An underperformance from Tenet doesn't exactly erase that history. Maybe it gives studios the leverage to reduce that % deal but he's not gonna struggle to find another project. 

Maybe I'm being pedantic. idk. I'd hate for Nolan's original films to be relegated to streaming if that's the future Hollywood's headed in.

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

I love Pattinson, but he's not gonna pull audiences like Leo did with Inception. Also, if Mickey's Law is still in effect, it's gonna get hit pretty hard in weekend 2 by Jungle Cruise.

Mickey's Law is starting to die down with TLK underperforming.

 

Also Jungle Cruise is going to be hurt be the "theme park movie curse".

[Valonqar]

Leo wasn't Leo before Titanic and Titanic made more money than any Leo movie since. So you never know what kind of hook is in Tenet that may become Patz biggest movie, bigger than Twilight, which means one of Nolan's biggest movies. 

[Avatree]

7 minutes ago, TMP said:

I love Pattinson, but he's not gonna pull audiences like Leo did with Inception. Also, if Mickey's Law is still in effect, it's gonna get hit pretty hard in weekend 2 by Jungle Cruise.

i was kidding lol Tenet is a no1curr movie. Rpatz in a period spy movie, looool really gonna put Nolan's Powah to the test. 

 

and yeah, Jungle Cruise is gonna be #1 of the year, so there's that.

 

Edited July 29, 2019 by Avatree

[TMP]

12 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

I think Nolan has made a lot more money for WB than Tarantino had for Weinstein for instance.

Yeah, but audiences are a lot more wary of non-franchise fare nowadays than they were when Inception launched in 2010. It's a whole new landscape Tenet's gonna be competing in.

[Firepower]

I think Hollywood will make over 400 mln WW. Foreign audience loves Tarantino/Leo/Pitt as much as in the US, if not more. I'm even assuming it'll be less divisive there. Some thing like 130-140 DOM + 280-300 should be feasible, especially in August.

Is there any news about China release date? I still didn't get any replies about it in China BO thread, even though Gavin posted weeks ago it would be released there in July.

[MrPink]

8 minutes ago, TMP said:

Yeah, but audiences are a lot more wary of non-franchise fare nowadays than they were when Inception launched in 2010. It's a whole new landscape Tenet's gonna be competing in.

 

I think you’re being overly pessimistic. The landscape has shifted but it doesn’t mean audiences suddenly avoid non franchise fare entirely. Especially if the film turns out to be good

 

The scenario you fear isn’t going to happen overnight and it’s useless to speculate before we even have any idea of the quality let alone a trailer or the actual true premise of the film

Edited July 29, 2019 by MrPink